MARKET MEASUREMENT

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MARKET MEASUREMENT
Dr. Metzner
EMGT451 LECTURE 8 2/2004
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THE SALES EQUATION

• SALES f(X, Y, e)
• where X are decision variables
• Y are environmental variables
• e are discrete events which
  produce discontinuities

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MARKETING MEASUREMENT

• Market Potential
• Sales Potential
• Level of Decision

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Sales Response Functions
Q
Q
Q Sales X Ad Promo
Salesforce Product Design
X
Q Q 1 e
or
X
b
Gompertz
Q Q a
- ( a bX)
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Sales over Time The Effect of a Discontinuity

D\SCONTINUITY
Q
SALES
MAXIMUM IMPACT
TIME TO MAXIMUM IMPACT
OCT
OCT
TIME
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FORECASTING

• QUALITATIVE (Judgmental)
• QUANTITATIVE
• TIME SERIES
• CAUSAL

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QUALITATIVE METHODS

• OF PEOPLE INVOLVED
• ONE
• FEW
• MANY

• METHOD
• VISIONARY
• EXECUTIVE PANEL
• DELPHI PANEL
• SALESFORCE
• CUSTOMERS

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TIME SERIES METHODS

• Moving Averages (ARMA)
• Exponential Smoothing
• Box-Jenkins
• Decomposition (X-11)
• Trend
• Naive
• Filtering

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Example of Causal Forecasting Automobile Demand
is Cyclical
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CAUSAL FORECASTING METHODS

• Multiple Regression
• Series Correlations
• Leading Indicators
• Econometric Data
• Diffusion Indices
• Product Life Cycle
• Input-Output
• Surveys
• Simulation

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Engineering Management 451
Advanced Marketing Management
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