Update: NCHRP Synthesis 20-05/Topic 40-06 Advanced Practices in Travel Forecasting

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Update NCHRP Synthesis 20-05/Topic 40-06
Advanced Practices in Travel Forecasting

• Presented to
• AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group
• October 1-2, 2009
• Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning
• Presented by
• Guy Rousseau
• Atlanta Regional Commission

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Membership

• Rebekah Anderson, Ohio DOT
• Brian Gregor, Oregon DOT
• Danny Lamb, Florida DOT
• Yali Li, Michigan DOT
• Doug MacIvor, California DOT
• Phillip Reeder, Texas A M University
• Guy Rousseau, Atlanta Regional Commission
• Supin Yoder, FHWA Liaison
• Ken Cervenka, FTA Liaison
• Kim Fisher, TRB Liaison
• Nanda Srinivasan, TRB Liaison
• Synthesis Staff Jon Williams, TRB
• Synthesis P.I. Bill Davidson Rick Donnelly, PB
  

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Schedule Time-Table

• Work Plan / Outline / Questionnaire Nov 15 2008
• First Draft                                       
           May 12 2009
• Second Draft                                      
       Sept 18 2009
• Panel Teleconference Mid-Oct 2009
•     
• Final Draft Nov 2009
• Publication Jan 2010

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Background Motivation

• TRB Special Report 288 calls for
• ...development and implementation of new modeling
  approaches to demand forecasting that are better
  suited to providing reliable information for such
  applications as multimodal investment analyses,
  operational analyses, environmental assessments
  (including GHG), evaluations of a wide range of
  policy alternatives, toll-facility revenue
  forecasts, freight forecasts, and meeting federal
  and state regulatory requirements.

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Background Motivation

• Workshop 127 of the 2008 TRB Annual Meeting
  featured presentations from 10 U.S. metropolitan
  areas that have advanced models in various stages
  of development, from full deployment to
  preliminary planning.

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Goals/Objectives/Scope

• Compile experience and knowledge of advanced
  travel forecasting models that are operational or
  in the process of becoming operational
• Focus on institutional issues associated with
  implementing models
• Present a general description of technical
  aspects of the models

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Included in the Scope

• Tour / activity-based models
• Land use economic models
• Traffic simulation models
• Freight commercial travel models
• Statewide models
• Integration of advanced models components for one
  coherent practice

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Case Studies from Draft 2

• San Francisco
• Sacramento, CA
• Portland, OR
• Lake Tahoe, NV
• Interviewed or Surveyed
• Los Angeles, CA
• Seattle, WA
• Atlanta, GA
• Columbus, OH
• New York Metropolitan Area
• Denver, CO
• Phoenix, AZ