Assessing the demographic impact of international migration in Cambridgeshire

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Assessing the demographic impact of international
migration in Cambridgeshire
Julia Gumy (Research Officer Population) The
Research Group
September 2008
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Outline of the presentation

• Aim of the research
• Migration in Cambridgeshire
• Data and Methodology
• Results
• Policy implications
• Conclusions

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Why migration?

• Apparent increase in international migration
• Questions
• Is migration really increasing?
• Can we measure it?
• Which are the areas affected?
• Which are the main groups migrating?
• How does this affect our population?
• Which services do we need to provide?

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Aim of the research

• To assess the current and future impact of
  international migration in Cambridgeshires
  population......
• ..with a focus on migrant workers

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Data sources
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Limitations of the data

• Administrative data sources not designed to
  monitor migration
• Ilustrate inflows but not outflows
• No indication on length of stay
• Do not represent stock of migrants
• Data sources cannot be linked, which means
• Different sample of overseas citizens
• Different fields of information
• Different time periods
• Data cannot provide estimates of the number of
  migrants in Cambridgeshire or elsewhere

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Strengths of the data

• Allow us to study trends
• When compared, the data can confirm observed
  patterns
• Provide information at small geographical areas
• Some data sources can be indicators of intended
  length of stay (e.g. GP data, ESOL enrolments)

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Methodology

• Collection of the data since the year 2001
• Data cleansing and re-organisation
• Categorisation in continents of origin
• Reconciliation of the NINos and WRS where
  possible
• Analysis and comparison of data sources
• Trend analysis
• Estimation of international migration

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Methodology

• No data on length of stay or intentions
• Development of return rate scenarios
• Result most likely estimate of the number of
  migrant workers in Cambridgeshire

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Cambridgeshire

• In the 2001 Census, 9 of the population in
  Cambridgeshire was born outside the UK

Source 2001 Census
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Rank of LAs in the EoE
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Rank of Cambridgeshire districts in the UK
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Work registrations by continent of origin in
Cambs
Around 30,000 non-UK born people have registered
to work in Cambridgeshire since 2001
The highest numbers of migrants are Polish,
Lithuanians and Indians
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Work registrations by year of registration in
Cambs
Source NINOs data
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Work registrations by district and nationality
in Cambs
Source NINOs
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Impact in Cambridgeshire

• Our best estimate is 61,500 non-UK born people
  in Cambridgeshire
• 11 of the current population, 2 percentage
  points more than in 2001
• Most of the non-UK population would be Western
  European and Asian
• ONS estimates 69,000 (CI /- 14,000) non-UK born
  citizens in Cambs (Source Annual Population
  Survey)

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Change since 2001
Sources 2001 Census, NINos/WRS data
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Characteristics of migrants

• Eastern Europeans
• Short-term migrants
• Young (18-34)
• Mostly males
• Unaccompanied
• Employment dependant on the district
• Do not register with a GP (or perhaps not
  immediately)
• Not many registered for language courses

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Characteristics of migrants

• Western Europeans
• High presence in industrial areas
• Employment linked to high-tech industry or
  University
• Short-term migration patterns
• Take up summer jobs and learn English
• Mostly young
• Evidence of some families with children
• Do not register with a GP
• Not many registered for language courses

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Characteristics of migrants

• Asians
• Constant flow of Asians
• Decrease in the number of registrations
• Evidence of some families with children
• Americans
• Mostly linked to the armed forces
• Africans
• Low numbers
• Most migrants from South Africa
• Oceania
• Most migrants from Australia

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Policy Implications

• Identification of priorities based on results
• Two examples
• Community Cohesion Strategy
• Targeted communication measures
• Access to guidance for employers to set minimum
  standards for migrant workers
• Joint Strategic Needs Assessment
• Identify gaps and inequalities in the provision
  of health care
• Provide evidence for the NHS Cambridgeshire
  priorities

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Conclusions
The demographic impact

• International migration has increased since 2001
• How does this affect Cambridgeshires population?
• We estimate that 11 of Cambridgeshires
  population in 2006 was born outside the UK,
  indicating a slight increase since 2001, when the
  Census counted 9
• The origin mix could have slightly changed
• Western Europeans and Asians would be the largest
  groups of non-UK born people in Cambridgeshire
• We found evidence to suggest numbers of new
  migrants may have already begun to decline

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Conclusions

• Measurement of migration
• We need better data
• Data tailored to study migration
• Better quality of the data
• More harmonisation
• Easier data linkage
• Information at small geographical levels
• Better data protection
• Development of large scale longitudinal surveys
• New Migrant Databank (NMD)
• Population register - National Identity Register
  (NIR)
• 2011 Census

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Conclusions

• Promote information sharing between academic and
  local government research
• To improve understanding of migration flows
• Fill knowledge gaps
• Share knowledge
• Share best practices
• Achieve good quality results

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For more information

• The Research Group
• Cambridgeshire County Council
• Shire Hall
• Castle Hill
• Cambridge
• CB3 0AP
• E-mail research.group_at_cambridgeshire.gov.uk
• Tel [phone]