UAS Propulsion Systems: Gap Analysis Risk Analysis

1
UAS Propulsion SystemsGap Analysis / Risk
Analysis

• Christopher Griffis, Timothy Wilson
• March 13, 2008

2
Overview

• Project plan and schedule
• Project review up to last meet
• Summary of new efforts
• Description of plan to finish

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UAS Propulsion SystemsGap Analysis / Risk
Analysis

• Project Plan Calendar

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Project Plan Gap Analysis
5
Project Plan Risk Analysis
6
Project Plan Wrapping Up
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UAS Propulsion SystemsGap Analysis / Risk
Analysis

• Project Review

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Gap Analysis Mechanism

• Modified spreadsheet to cover the new dimensions
  of analysis (coined term Dimensions of
  Applicability)
• Marshall parameters
• Propulsion system categories from Tech Survey
• Relation to the Conceptual Model
• Color-coded grouping for layering of information

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Spreadsheet Sections vs. Technology and
Conceptual
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Gap Analysis EM Systems
RP Issues that are covered by existing
regulation (very large region)
GT Issues not covered by existing regulation
(very small region)
RP Issues not covered by existing regulation
(very small region)
Regulatory Gaps!!! (Areas not covered, even by
interpretation of existing FARs)
EM Issues Covered by interpretation of FARs for
existing RP/GT Regulation
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UAS Propulsion SystemsGap Analysis / Risk
Analysis

• Summary of New Efforts

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Gap/Risk Documentation (I)

• Intro
• Project description (objectives, scope)
• Background (tech survey, conceptual model,
  foundation for gap and risk analysis)
• Gap Analysis
• Discussion of gap analysis artifacts
  spreadsheet, legend, Dimensions of Applicability
  (DofApropulsion systems affected, Conceptual
  Components affected)
• Gap Analysis process description
• Setup
• Line-by-line applicability assessment and Global
  Evaluation
• Gap documentation
• The Gap Analysis
• Global gaps
• Specific gaps

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Gap/Risk Documentation (II)

• Risk Analysis
• Discussion of risk analysis artifacts
• Preliminary hazard list
• Failure modes and effects analysis
• Discussion of risk analysis process
• The Risk Analysis
• Conclusions and Recommendations
• References
• Appendices

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Gap Analysis Objectives (Revised)

• Identify the categories of regulatory guidelines
  that will be looked at
• Perform proper scoping of the project to make the
  findings manageable and usable.
• Determine how to manage the complexity of all the
  dimensions of this gap analysis
• Create a spreadsheet that concisely and compactly
  stores and communicates this information
• Perform a global assessment of gaps that exist
  with regard to the current state of regulation
• Perform an individual assessment of each FAR as
  it relates to UAS propulsion, explaining its
  assessment with regard to the applicability
  criteria.
• Create a document that encapsulates the essential
  information in summarizing and communicating
  these gaps

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Risk Analysis Objectives (Revised)

• Based on FAA SRM Order 8040.4
• Implement safety risk management by performing
  risk assessment and analysis and using the
  results to make decisions
• Plan the risk assessment and analysis must be
  predetermined, documented in a plan which must
  include the criteria for acceptable risk
• Hazard identification the hazard analyses and
  assessments required in the plan must identify
  the safety risks associated with the system or
  operations under evaluation
• Analysis the risks must be characterized in
  terms of severity of consequence and likelihood
  of occurrence
• Risk Assessment the risk assessment of the
  hazards examined must be compared to the
  acceptability criteria specified in the plan and
  the results provided in a manner and method
  easily adapted for decision-making
• Decision the risk management decision must
  include the safety risk assessment and the risk
  assessments may be used to compare and contrast
  options

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The Fundamental Gap

• Current regulations
• Implicit assumption that propulsion for manned
  aircraft only comes from two types of
  powerplant/energy transformers gas turbine
  engines and reciprocating piston engines
• Almost specifically do not regulate the concept
  of a pure electrically driven motor as the
  powerplant for an aircraft system.
• UAS that use EM based propulsion arent covered
• Also means that predicate technologies in the
  conceptual chain aren't covered (ES and ET like
  fuel cell, long endurance battery,
  ultracapacitors, etc)
• RESULT
• Using regulatory provisions for things relating
  to heat and thermodynamically based means of
  propulsion to guide safety aspects of EM based
  systems now become a matter of interpretation (as
  it stands)
• In some cases for EM, there isn't even a basis
  for interpretation in existing guidelines
• RECOMMENDATION
• Embrace this concept and develop system
  size-invariant safety guidelines (regulations)
  addressing the needs of pure EM based systems

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The Open-Set Gap

• Current regulations
• Very specific about turbine and reciprocating
  engines
• Have a scattered collection of coverage
  regulations that say, if this cant be done, at
  least do this. (tantamount to ELOS guidelines)
• Concept of for everything else may now become
  important
• New UAS technology can fall into the category of
  everything else, as demonstrated by EM based
  systems
• RESULT
• Future paradigm shifts in approaches to aviation
  will require high overhead response
• RECOMMENDATION
• Encapsulate the general parameters of safe
  aircraft operation and design in a way that
  covers the everything else category

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Risk Analysis Artifacts (I) Preliminary Hazard
List
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Risk Analysis Artifacts (II)
Severity

• Catastrophic
• Critical
• Marginal
• Negligible

Likelihood

• Frequent
• Probable
• Occasional
• Remote

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UAS Propulsion SystemsGap Analysis / Risk
Analysis

• The Final Stretch

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Wrapping Up

• Finalize Gap Analysis
• Determine recommendations
• Finalize documentation
• Touch up the spreadsheet
• Documentation on Risk Analysis
• Complete risk analysis
• Determine recommendations
• Draft up documentation, finalize
• Formalize everything into FAA doc format

22
Review

• Project plan and schedule
• Project review up to last meet
• Summary of new efforts
• Description of plan to finish