Is the Gautrain the solution?

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• Is the Gautrain the solution?
• Romano Del Mistro

TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
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Six objectives

• To promote economic growth, job creation and
  SMMEs
• To relieve congestion
• To demonstrate governments commitment to public
  transport

• To restructure the apartheid city
• To give expression to an integrated transport
  plan
• To improve environmental conditions

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Public debate

• Good public participation programme, became
  focussed on NIMBY
• Alternative modes were not debated sufficiently
• The best alternative needs to be shown to be the
  best

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Inadequate debate leads to

• Incorrect public perception of professional
  competence
• Loss of public credibility in and support for
  future initiatives aimed at sustainable transport
• Waste of resources

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Contents

• Looking for an alternative
• Some details
• A question of scale

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Public transport alternatives

• Not limited to current experience

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This is also a bus service

• Seoul
• Forty kilometres of dedicated median lanes on
  major trunk lines

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This is also a bus service

• Jakarta
• 6,000 pass/h per direction.
• Articulated buses can boost capacity to 9,600

ITDP, January2005 Jakartal
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This is also a bus service

• Mexico City
• 250 000 daily passengers

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This is also a bus service

• Bogota
• By 2015, TransMilenio
• 5 million pass / day
• 388 km of busways
• 37 km of trunk lines
• 57 stations
• 28 pedestrian overpasses
• 4 terminals of integration
• Control centre
• Total cost
• US 198.8 million

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This is also a bus service

• Curitiba

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This is also a bus service

• Eindhoven
• Phileas

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Choosing an alternative

• Capacity
• Cost per passenger
• Capital cost
• Speed
• Appropriate technology

• Safety
• Comfort
• Convenience
• Image
• National Pride
• To attract car user
• To promote public transport

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Choosing . Capacity (Pk hr/direction)

• Maximum link volume
• 7400 (2000)
• 13800 (2016)
• Ex Brocklebank et al (2001)
• Estimated at
• 5000 (2005)
• 5400 (2010)
• Ex Corporate.gautrain.co.za

• Minibuses
• 5400 / 15 seats
• 367 trips
• Buses
• 5400 / 50 seats
• 110 trips

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Choosing . Capacity (Pk hr/direction)

• Lloyd Wright, 2003

• I will come back to passenger estimate

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Choosing . Cost/passenger

• Subsidy Cost - fare
• Additional subsidy
• (R51-R36) 5400/.11250 R184 million /year
  (R331m?)

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Choosing. Capital cost

• HIGHER RISK WHEN INVESTING IN RAIL

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Choosing. Speed

• High speed rail
• 62 km
• 35 minutes, plus
• 10 minutes to station
• 5 minutes wait
• 10 minutes to work
• 60 minutes

• Slower mode
• 62 km
• 44 minutes, plus
• 10 minutes to station
• 5 minutes wait
• 10 minutes to work
• 69 minutes
• IS IT WORTH IT?

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Some details Estimating the trips

• Peak hour passengers/ direction
• (1111)800 (32)2200 14200 cars
• 1,3 pass/vehicle and 20 to Gautrain 3692
  pass/hr
• High values require more explanation of
  modelling

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Some details. Capital paid

• Generally the capital costs are paid by
  government, therefore only operating costs should
  be considered in selecting the mode.
• A political decision to pay for some of the
  capital costs.
• But we (passengers or citizens) pay for all the
  costs either as fares or as taxes.

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A question of scale

• Creates a precedent for longer travel distances.
• Average 20 km Website
• Average 35 km
• Brocklebank et al (2001 )

• To ensure ridership
• Densify corridor wrt housing and employment?
• Delay new freeway construction?
• Buses can carry over 20 000 peak hour
  pass/direction

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A question of scale

• What if only 2200 peak hour pass/direction?
• (114-56) 2200 /.11250
• R290 million/year (or R430million/year)
• R 321 million/year subsidy for 16000 peak hour
  bus passengers / direction in Greater
  Johannesburg.
• What percentage risk in a Public Private
  Partnership is fair to government?
• R18b / R20b? R10b/ R20b? R5b/R20b?

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A question of equity

• .

• R12 billion plus on the relatively more affluent.
• What is being spent on the deteriorating rail
  network?

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A question of objectives

• Define objectives
• National pride
• Reviving inner city property values
• Greater development plans?
• Region must have its train!
• Degree of mobility

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A question of open debate

• Test modelling assumptions in open debate
• Alternatively, ask the private sector what it
  will ask for it to take 100 of the risk.

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A question of alternatives

• Test transport alternatives
• Rail high speed
• Integrated Rail SA
• At-grade bus
• Can always be upgraded
• Mixed grade bus

• Even revisit corridor development goals

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Conclusion

• Public transport services that are
• Safe, convenient, reliable, accessible and
  affordable
• Must consider all alternatives to implement the
  best solution

• Gauteng to follow up Car Free Day with indaba
  Saturday October 22, 2005 0916 - (SA)
• Gauteng transport MEC Ignatius Jacobs will
  follow up Car Free Day with a commuter indaba as
  a step to champion commuter rights, his office
  announces

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OR
O

• Thank you

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OR
O

• Thank you

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Total cost/passenger (R/trip)
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Operating Cost/passenger (R/trip)