My Hurricane Research

1
My Hurricane Research

• Atmospheric Sciences 620
• November 28, 2006

2
Research Foci

• Climatological trends in tropical cyclone
  activity
• Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones
• Formation of tropical cyclones
• Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins

3
(No Transcript)
4
Large Scale Factors Affecting Hurricane Activity

• Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic
• El Niño/La Niña
• Position of large-scale atmospheric features

5
Conditions necessary for formation of a tropical
cyclone

• Warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs greater than
  79 degrees)
• Weak winds in the upper levels
• A disturbance to provide low level convergence
  and rotation

6
Warming creates upper level divergence
Air Warms
Condenses
Water Vapor
Water evaporates
Low level convergence
Warm Water at least 79 degrees
7
(No Transcript)
8
(No Transcript)
9
(No Transcript)
10
(No Transcript)
11
(No Transcript)
12
(No Transcript)
13
(No Transcript)
14
(No Transcript)
15
El Niño
Strong upper level westerly winds wind shear
Central America
Pacific SSTs warm
Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean
16
Rapid Intensification

• Most major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5)
  undergo a Rapid Intensification Period (RIP)
  where the central pressure decreases by more than
  24 mb in 24 hours.
• The onset of RIP is poorly forecast by current
  techniques.

17
(No Transcript)
18
2004 TS Origins
19
2005 TS Origins