Summary Short-Term Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook

1
Summary Short-Term Petroleum and Natural Gas
Outlook

• January 10, 2001
• Energy Information Administration

2
WTI Crude Oil Price Base Case and 95 Confidence
Interval
Projections
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
3
Real and Nominal Crude Oil Prices
Source Energy Information Administration
4
OPEC Crude Oil Production 1999-2001
Projections
History
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
5
Total OECD Oil Stocks
Total includes commercial and government stocks.
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
6
U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Outlook
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
7
U.S. Distillate Inventory Outlook
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
8
Distillate Stocks Are Important Part of East
Coast Winter Supply
Source Energy Information Administration
9
Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices
Source Energy Information Administration
10
Consumer Winter Heating Oil Costs
Average Northeast Household Heating With Oil
97-98
98-99
99-00
00-01
Actual
Actual
Actual
Base Fcst.
Gal
636
650
644
717
0.92
0.80
1.18
1.48
/gal
585
520
760
1,061
Cost ()
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
11
U.S. Total Gasoline Inventory Outlook
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
12
Retail Motor Gasoline Prices
Regular self-service
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
13
U.S. Propane Total Stocks
Source Energy Information Administration
14
Average Weekly Propane Spot Prices

• Source Reuters and Oil Price Information Service

15
Current Natural Gas Spot Prices Well Above the
Recent Price Range
16
Natural Gas Spot Prices Base Case and 95
Confidence Interval
Sources History Natural Gas Week Projections
Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2001.
17
Working Gas in Storage
(Percentage Difference from Previous 5-Year
Average)
Sources History Natural Gas Week Projections
Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2001.
18
Rigs Drilling Gas Wells Are At All-Time Highs
19
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.