Mary Kicza

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Keynote Address NOAA, GEOSS, and Cal/Val
Mary Kicza Deputy Assistant Administrator
for Satellite and Information Services National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Workshop
on Achieving Satellite Instrument Calibration for
Climate Change National Conference
Center Lansdowne, VA May 16, 2006
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NOAA and Its Satellite Program
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NOAAs Mission

• To describe and predict changes in the Earths
  environment.
• To conserve and manage the Nations coastal and
  marine resources to ensure sustainable economic
  opportunities.

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NOAAs Programs and Goals
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NOAA Data and Information are Essential for
Ocean
Climate
Hazards, Severe Weather, Watches, Warnings
Transportation
Defense
Industry
Environmental Monitoring
Agriculture
Commerce
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Has Observing Instruments On Land, Ocean, Air,
And Space
Ocean-Based
Space-Based
Land-Based
Air-Based
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Makes Nautical Charts
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Provides Aerial Surveys and Navigation Response
to Survey Channels for Debris
Hurricane Katrina
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Monitors the Population of Endangered Species and
Stellar Seal Lion
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Provides Support to FAA for Volcanic Ash Alerts
NOAA-15 color enhanced image
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El Niño Forecasts
Localized Changes In Ocean Temperatures (El Niño)
Have A Major Impact On Climate And Weather
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Floods Account For 5.2 Billion In Damages, And
Average Over 80 Deaths Per Year
Hurricanes Cause an Average of 5.1 Billion In
Damages, And 20 Deaths Per Year
Hurricane Isabel Left 27 Dead In 7 States And 3.3
Million People Without Electrical Power
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NOAA Satellites View smoke plumes From World
Trade Center September 11, 2001
NOAA polar satellite image At 5 pm EDT 9/11
showing plume
GOES captured the plume Within minutes of the
incident
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NOAAs Operational Environmental Satellites

• NOAA provides an OPERATIONAL remote sensing
  capability for acquiring and disseminating GLOBAL
  and regional imagery and measurements of the
  environment, including METEOROLOGICAL, CLIMATIC,
  OCEANOGRAPHIC, SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL, and HAZARDS
  data, in support of the NOAA mission and the
  benefit of the Nation.

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An End-to-End Responsibility
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National Investment
The U. S. has made and continues to make
investments in civil operational satellites
observing systems. Such systems allow us to
describe understand forecast assess the
earth and its environment
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NOAA Programs that Support Monitoring the
Earth-Climate System

• Geostationary Operational Environmental
  Satellites (GOES) and GOES-R
• Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental
  Satellite (POES)
• National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental
  Satellite System (NPOESS)
• Processing/distribution of non-NOAA satellite
  data
• DMSP, International geostationary satellites,
  QuikSCAT, TOPEX, ERS-2, EOS Terra and Aqua,
  SeaWIFS
• Environmental Data Management
• National Climatic Data Center
• National Oceanographic Data Center
• National Geophysical Data Center
• Applications Research and Development
• Joint NOAA/NASA/DoD Satellite Data Assimilation
  Center

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Atmospheric Products Examples
Winds
Total Water Vapor
Temperature 500 mb
Ozone
Rain Rate
Aerosol Optical Thickness
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Ocean Products Examples
SST Anomalies
Hot Spots Potential Coral Bleaching
TOPEX Sea Level
Sea WIFS Ocean Color
QuikSCAT Winds
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Land Surface Products Examples
Vegetation Health
Snow
QuebecFires/Smoke
Solar Radiation
Global Lights/Fires
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Satellite Continuity
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00
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03
08
09
10
01
02
07
04
05
06
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CY
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Polar
0530
NPOESS
DMSP
WindSat
0730
NPOESS
DMSP
METOP
POES
Local Equatorial Crossing Time
1030
Terra
Future Systems
NPP
1330
C2 or C1
NPOESS
POES
Aqua
Geostationary
GOES
GOES R Series
Meteosat 2nd Generation
Meteosat
GIFTS/IOMI ?
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GEOSS A System of Systems
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Attributes of an Integrated Global Observing
System

• Comprehensive

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Presidents Statement
Our cooperation will enable us to develop the
capability to predict droughts, prepare for
weather emergencies, plan and protect crops,
manage coastal areas and fisheries, and monitor
air quality
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Group on Earth Observations (GEO)

• Membership open to all countries
• 60 countries (including the EC) are now
  represented
• International organizations are participants
• 43 organizations are now represented
• Organized into 5 subgroups
• Established GEO Secretariat
• Established Implementation Plan Task Team

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GEO Moves ForwardWorking Towards Implementation
of the Global Observation System of Systems
(GEOSS)
Received approval for formal GEO organization and
10-year implementation plan Held GEO-I in May
2005, and GEO-II in December 2005 New GEO
Secretariat Director, Jose Achache Agreed to
2006 Work Plan and adopted a budget Formally
created GEO Committees GEONETCast as tangible
near term project to implement GEOSS US
announced intention to move GOES satellite over
South America to help offset lack of sounder data
in that region
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Global Earth Observation System of
SystemsIntegrated Observations Data Management
Intercalibration of foreign and domestic
satellites is fundamental to GEOSS

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Societal Benefit Areas

1. Improve Weather Forecasting
2. Reduce Loss of Life and Property from Disasters
3. Protect and Monitor Our Ocean Resources
4. Understand, Assess, Predict, Mitigate, and Adapt
   to Climate Variability and Change
5. Support Sustainable Agriculture and Combat Land
   Degradation
6. Understand the Effect of Environmental Factors on
   Human Health and Well-Being
7. Develop the Capacity to Make Ecological Forecasts
8. Protect and Monitor Water Resources
9. Monitor and Manage Energy Resources

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Importance of Cal/Val and Next Steps
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Satellite Observations Have Contributed to More
Accurate Weather Forecasts

• Southern Hemisphere forecasts are now as accurate
  as NH forecasts
• Todays 5-day forecasts as accurate as 3-day
  forecasts 25 years ago
• BUT ..forecast centers remove satellite biases
  approximately and empirically
• Improved calibration and intercalibration can be
  expected to lead to further gains in forecast
  accuracy

ECMWF
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Satellite Observations Have Contributed to
Improved Monitoring of Global Climate Change

• One Example
• May 3, 2006
• Federal Study Finds Accord on Warming
• By ANDREW C. REVKIN
• A scientific study commissioned by the Bush
  administration concluded yesterday that the lower
  atmosphere was indeed growing warmer
• Above conclusion based on careful analyses of
  NOAAs MSU observations (one analysis is shown on
  right)
• But enormous challenges remain in monitoring
  global climate change

MSU Tropospheric Temp Anomaly (C) (U. Alabama)
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Challenges in Monitoring Global Climate Change
from Space
Total Solar Irradiance

• Need to construct time series by stitching
  together observations of many satellites
• Extremely small signals
• Atmospheric temperature trends as small as 0.1
  C/decade
• Ozone changes as little as 1/decade
• Variations in the suns output as tiny as
  -0.02/decade
• Different analyses of observations vary from
• -0.023 to 0.25 W/m2
• Good calibration and intercalibration are crucial

(Wilson, 03)
(After Frohlich)
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Is the Earth Greening?
Equator Crossing Time

• NOAAs AVHRRs have been used to construct a time
  series of Vegetation Index that indicates a
  greening Earth but we dont know if this is
  really happening because of uncertainties in
  calibration and intercalibration of the different
  satellites
• Good calibration and intercalibration are crucial

Pinatubo eruption
(After Heidinger)
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Next Steps NOAA/NIST Initiative in Satellite
Calibration and Intercalibration

• A Government program is needed to assure
  instruments meet specification and pre-launch
  tests are traceable to SI standards, and the
  on-orbit satellite instrument observations are
  well calibrated and validated by means of careful
  analysis of instrument performance, satellite
  intercalibration and validation with reference
  sites
• On-orbit validation is needed for foreign
  satellite instruments to meet GEOSS objectives
• Inadequate calibration can result in economic
  benefit losses in the billion dollar range.
• Degraded climate trends and projections
• Degraded weather forecasts
• Degraded ocean and coastal ecosystems assessments
• Degraded hazard support information (fires, flash
  floods, droughts)
• Benefits of improved calibration/intercalibration
• Independent confirmation to ensure instruments
  meet specifications.
• Independent recommendations for corrective
  actions
• Better calibrated satellite observations for
  ecosystems, climate and weather applications
• Resulting in improved information for society
• Fundamental prerequisite for an Integrated Global
  Earth Observing Systems of Systems (GEOSS)
• Need to properly characterize and minimize
  observational errors before information can be
  used in Earth System Models.

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Next Steps Global Space-based Inter-Calibration
System (GSICS)

• GSICS A new World Meteorological Organization
  (WMO) program
• Overarching Goal Ensure the comparability of
  satellite measurements provided at different
  times, by different instruments under the
  responsibility of different satellite operators
• Participants WMO, satellite agencies, national
  standards institutes, national data centers,
  major NWP centers, and national research
  laboratories
• NOAA is taking a leading role

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Next Steps ASIC3 National Roadmap

• By developing a National Roadmap for improving
  satellite instrument calibration and
  intercalibration, this workshop will advance the
  nations ability to monitor, understand and
  predict our natural environment
• Best wishes for a successful Workshop