Drought Monitoring: Challenges in the Western United States

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Drought Monitoring Challenges in
the Western United States

• Brian Fuchs, Climatologist
• National Drought Mitigation Center
• University of Nebraska-Lincoln

The Climate Impacts Group Annual Fall Forecasting
Meeting October 22, 2009 Boise, Idaho
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The U.S. Drought Monitor
Since 1999, NOAA (CPC and NCDC), USDA, and the
NDMC have produced a weekly composite drought map
-- the U.S. Drought Monitor -- with input from
numerous federal and non-federal partners
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The Drought Monitor Concept

• A partnership between the NDMC, USDA and NOAAs
  CPC, NCDC, and RCCs (authors)
• Incorporate relevant information and products
  from all entities (and levels of government)
  dealing with drought (RCCs, SCs, federal/state
  agencies, etc.) (experts)
• The Drought Monitor is updated weekly and
  provides a general up-to-date summary of current
  drought conditions across the 50 states, Puerto
  Rico and the Pacific possessions

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The Drought Monitor Concept

• A consolidation of indices and indicators into
  one comprehensive national drought map
• Trying to capture these characteristics
• the droughts magnitude (duration intensity)
• spatial extent
• probability of occurrence
• Impacts
• Rates drought intensity by
• Percentile Rankings

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Original Objectives

• Fujita-like scale
• NOT a forecast!
• NOT a drought declaration!
• Identify impacts (A, H)
• Assessment of current conditions
• Incorporate local expert input
• Be as objective as possible

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U.S. Drought Monitor Map
Drought Intensity Categories
D0 Abnormally Dry (30tile)
D1 Drought Moderate (20tile)
D2 Drought Severe (10tile)
D3 Drought Extreme (5tile)
D4 Drought Exceptional (2tile)
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Key Variables For Monitoring Drought

• climate data
• soil moisture
• stream flow
• ground water
• reservoir and lake levels
• snow pack
• short, medium, and long range forecasts
• vegetation health/stress and fire danger

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U.S. Drought Monitor

• Integrates Key
• Drought Indicators
• - Palmer Drought Index
• - SPI
• - KBDI
• Modeled Soil Moisture
• - 7-Day Avg. Streamflow
• - Precipitation Anomalies
• Growing Season
• - Crop Moisture Index
• - Sat. Veg. Health Index
• Soil Moisture
• Mesonet data
• In The West
• - SWSI
• - Reservoir levels

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Indices for The West
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Principal Drought Monitor Inputs
USGS Streamflow
CPC Daily Soil Model
Palmer Drought Index

USDA Soil Ratings
SPI Drought Index
Satellite Veg Health
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Use of the DM in Decision Making

• USDA Dried Milk Program 2002-03
• USDA CRP Release hot spot trigger
• Numerous states use as a drought trigger
  (Governors declarations)
• 2006 USDA Livestock Assistance
• 2006 IRS (tax deferral on livestock losses)

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Challenges?

• NRCS Data (RAWS SNOTEL)
• Data Density
• Basin Data
• SWSI not being calculated for all basins
• State Data
• Well/Reservoir Data sets not centralized
• Climate Change
• Population Shifts
• New Efforts ?
• California Drought Tracker

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WASHINGTON Secretary of the Interior Dirk
Kempthorne has approved 9.2 million in Water
2025 Challenge Grants for water conservation
projects across the West. The grants will help
fund 44 projects in 11 states. Including the
matching contributions of non-federal partners,
the selected projects represent a combined
investment of more than 32 million in water
management improvements. July 26, 2007
www.doi.gov/water2025.
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Stresses on Western Water
Population Projections
(2000-2030) Greatest
increases expected in the driest
states. Source U.S. Census Bureau
NEEDS FRESH WATER!
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Its all about the water!
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Thank you! Please visit us at http//drought.un
l.edu/ Please contact me at bfuchs2_at_unl.edu
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