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Current status of ongoing seasonal adjustment activities

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Subgroup on metadata template. Next meeting 11th July Frankfurt ... Discussion of an empirical study on calendar and seasonal factors of some NA components ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Current status of ongoing seasonal adjustment activities


1
Current status of ongoing seasonal adjustment
activities
Rosa Ruggeri Cannata
  • www.ec.europa.eu/euroindicators

Eurostat - Unit D1 Key Indicators for European
Policies
2
Introduction
  • Attention on harmonisation of SA practices for
    PEEIs and infra-annual statistics
  • Revitalisation of the Seasonal Adjustment
    Steering Group
  • Methodological changes in NA (chain-linking)
  • Reconvention of the Task Force on Seasonal
    Adjustment of Quarterly National Accounts

3
Ongoing SA initiatives - Outline
  • Seasonal Adjustment Steering Group
  • (joint with ECB DG Statistics)
  • Task Force on Seasonal Adjustment of Quarterly
    National Accounts (joint with ECB DG Statistics)
  • Training activities
  • Improving Demetra

4
Seasonal Adjustment Steering Group
  • Co-chaired by ECB DG Statistics and Eurostat
  • Composed by delegates from 8 Member States, both
    from NSIs and NCBs
  • First meeting 14th February, Luxembourg
  • Subgroup on ESS SA guidelines
  • Subgroup on metadata template
  • Next meeting 11th July Frankfurt

5
Task Force on SA of Quarterly National Accounts
(1)
  • Co-chaired by ECB DG Statistics and Eurostat
  • Composed by delegates 19 Member States, from
    NSIs, NCBs and Wifo
  • First meeting - 15th February, Luxembourg
  • Previous TF final report 10 recommendations
    identified for review/amendment
  • Subgroup to analyse different aspects of three
    chain-linking techniques currently used in
    European countries

6
Task Force on SA of Quarterly National Accounts
(2)
  • Questionnaire run successfully on chain-linking
    practices
  • Second meeting 23th-24th April, Frankfurt
  • Discussion of the three papers on chain-linking
    techniques
  • Discussion of an empirical study on calendar and
    seasonal factors of some NA components
  • Creation of a group to draft a detailed paper
    about chain-linking effects on the correction of
    calendar adjustments

7
Other activities
  • Demetra
  • Recently improved in order to incorporate recent
    versions of X-12-Arima and TRAMO-SEATS engines
  • X-12-Arima and TRAMO-SEATS on equal footing
  • Training activities
  • ESTP training in Luxembourg, 11th-15th June with
    the participation of David Findley, Agustin
    Maravall and Dominique Ladiray

8
Future Work
  • Finalise ESS SA guidelines and present them to
    the CMFB and the SPC
  • Reflection has started on Demetra
  • Procedural or modular underlying architecture?
  • Open source implementation language?

9
  • Thank you for your
  • attention
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