Current status of ongoing seasonal adjustment activities

1
Current status of ongoing seasonal adjustment
activities
Rosa Ruggeri Cannata

• www.ec.europa.eu/euroindicators

Eurostat - Unit D1 Key Indicators for European
Policies
2
Introduction

• Attention on harmonisation of SA practices for
  PEEIs and infra-annual statistics
• Revitalisation of the Seasonal Adjustment
  Steering Group
• Methodological changes in NA (chain-linking)
• Reconvention of the Task Force on Seasonal
  Adjustment of Quarterly National Accounts

3
Ongoing SA initiatives - Outline

• Seasonal Adjustment Steering Group
• (joint with ECB DG Statistics)
• Task Force on Seasonal Adjustment of Quarterly
  National Accounts (joint with ECB DG Statistics)
• Training activities
• Improving Demetra

4
Seasonal Adjustment Steering Group

• Co-chaired by ECB DG Statistics and Eurostat
• Composed by delegates from 8 Member States, both
  from NSIs and NCBs
• First meeting 14th February, Luxembourg
• Subgroup on ESS SA guidelines
• Subgroup on metadata template
• Next meeting 11th July Frankfurt

5
Task Force on SA of Quarterly National Accounts
(1)

• Co-chaired by ECB DG Statistics and Eurostat
• Composed by delegates 19 Member States, from
  NSIs, NCBs and Wifo
• First meeting - 15th February, Luxembourg
• Previous TF final report 10 recommendations
  identified for review/amendment
• Subgroup to analyse different aspects of three
  chain-linking techniques currently used in
  European countries

6
Task Force on SA of Quarterly National Accounts
(2)

• Questionnaire run successfully on chain-linking
  practices
• Second meeting 23th-24th April, Frankfurt
• Discussion of the three papers on chain-linking
  techniques
• Discussion of an empirical study on calendar and
  seasonal factors of some NA components
• Creation of a group to draft a detailed paper
  about chain-linking effects on the correction of
  calendar adjustments

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Other activities

• Demetra
• Recently improved in order to incorporate recent
  versions of X-12-Arima and TRAMO-SEATS engines
• X-12-Arima and TRAMO-SEATS on equal footing
• Training activities
• ESTP training in Luxembourg, 11th-15th June with
  the participation of David Findley, Agustin
  Maravall and Dominique Ladiray

8
Future Work

• Finalise ESS SA guidelines and present them to
  the CMFB and the SPC
• Reflection has started on Demetra
• Procedural or modular underlying architecture?
• Open source implementation language?

9

• Thank you for your
• attention