Sin ttulo de diapositiva

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Statistical Downscaling Portal for
ENSEMBLES (RT2B)
José Manuel Gutiérrez Daniel San Martín Dpto.
Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación
Applied Meteorology Group Univ. Cantabria INM
(Santander, Spain)
Bartolomé Orfila Antonio S. Cofiño Instituto
Nacional de Meteorología
AI met
http//www.meteo.unican.es
http//www.meteo.unican.es/ensembles
group
http//www.meteo.unican.es/ 1
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Use of the Portal by Example Crop Yield in Italy
Example To input a crop-yield model, the Joint
Research Center (JRC) needs to obtain seasonal
forecasts of several surface variables maximum
and minimum temperature, mean daily rainfall,
daily global radiation, evapotranspiration..... in
a high-resolution 50kmx50km grid over
Italy. GOAL Daily values for june-august 2006
in a suitable format (e.g., text file, or Excel
file).
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Features and Structure of the Downscaling Portal
Predictors
Predictands
Downscaling Model
(T(1ooo mb),..., T(500 mb) Z(1ooo mb),...,
Z(500 mb) H(1ooo mb),..., H(500 mb)) Xn
PrecipitationTemperature
Regres., CCA, Yn WT Xn
Yn
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S2D Algorithms Implemented in the Downscaling
Portal
1. Weather-Clustering Analog Method based on
Self-Organizing Maps A generalization of the
analog method which uses a pre-classification of
the reanalysis patterns to obtain weather
classes from where probabilistic forecasts
according to the observed climatolgies within
groups are obtained. The clustering method used
is a self-organizing map (SOM) which provides a
lattice of weather classes which is the support
of the resulting PDF. Clustering methods for
statistical downscaling in short-range weather
forecast J.M. Gutiérrez , R. Cano, A.S. Cofiño,
and M.A. Rodríguez Monthly Weather Review,
132(9), 2169 - 2183 (2004). Analysis and
downscaling multi-model seasonal forecasts in
Perú using self-organizing maps A.S. Cofiño,
J.M. Gutiérrez, and R. Cano Tellus A, 57,
435-447 (2005).
2. Weather Generator Stochastic generation of
daily precipitation conditioned on predictions of
the probability of a wet day in the season and
daily persistence. The method uses SVD of model
output and observations to obtain ensemble-mean
seasonal means to feed the stochastic model. A
method for statistical downscaling of seasonal
ensemble predictions H. Feddersen and U.
Andersen Tellus A, 57, 398 - 405 (2005).
Soon available
Other methods from other partners to be include.
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Current Registered Users are from ENSEMBLES
partners.
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http//www.meteo.unican.es/ensembles