Air Safety and Terrorism

1
Air Safety and Terrorism

• Thomas Songer
• Mita Lovalekar

2
Learning and Performance Objectives

• Understand the spectrum of safety risk in airline
  transportation
• Identify the data sources available for studying
  airline crashes
• Identify the potential risk related to terrorism
  in airline transportation

3
Carmen Taylor via KHBS/KHOG-TV
4
Number of Passengers (in millions)
U.S. Scheduled Airlines
Source Air Transport Association
5
Officials Probe Crash of Plane Into Tampa
Building
Reuters, 6 Jan 2002
6
Disasters

• Fatalism vs. Preparedness

7
Risk Perception

• Our response to a real or imagined hazard is a
  function of our perception of that hazard. In
  many situations, hazards are ignored or
  disregarded. In other situations, they are
  magnified. Some of the factors which govern risk
  perception include familiarity, degree of dread,
  memorability

8
Applications of Epidemiology

• (A) Understanding the causes
• of a disaster
• (B) Understanding ways of
• controlling a disaster
• situation

9
Data Sources

• Global Aviation Safety Network
• U.S. Fed. Aviation Administration
• Air Transport Association
• National Transportation
• Safety
  Board

10
2001 Statistics

• 34 fatal airliner accidents
• 80 passenger carrying
• 15 cargo carrying
• 1118 fatalities among airplane occupants

Aviation Safety Network
11
2001
Flights
Accidents
9
29
42
3
17
Europe
Africa
Asia/Australia
N. America
S.C. America
Aviation Safety Network
12
Worldwide Airline Accidents 1945-2001
Aviation Safety Network
13
United States Scheduled Airlines
Source Air Transport Association
14
1996 U.S. Aviation Statistics
Number of
Accidents per
Accidents
100,000 flight hrs
All
Fatal
All
Fatal
49
4
0.32
0.026
Major Carriers
Commuters
98
21
3.16
0.677
General
1854
350
7.51
1.420
Aviation
NTSB
15
Death Rates of Vehicle Occupants
Deaths per 100 million
Vehicle
person miles of travel
Motorcycle
45
Gen. Aviation
8
Automobile
1.23
Bus
0.06
Passenger Train
0.03
Com. Plane
0.03
Source National Safety Council
16
Causes of Death in Air Force, 1994
Number
Percent
Motor Vehicle Accidents
71
31.3
Suicide
67
29.5
Medical Conditions
40
17.6
Aviation Accidents
22
9.7
Homicides
9
4.0
Other
18
7.9
Total
227
17
Terrorism and Flying

• 1012 hijackings or attempted hijackings
• 20 accidents and 1060 fatalities
• 42 accidents involving a bomb or sabotage
• 2101 fatalities
• 76 accidents where plane was shot down
• 2003 fatalities

Aviation Safety Network
18
Hijackings by Year 1947-2001
Aviation Safety Network
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Health and Airline Travel
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Potential Health Risks

• From Acute Exposures
• Deep Vein Thrombosis
• Infection
• Injury
• Adverse events in the medically vulnerable

21
Potential Health Risks

• From Chronic Exposures
• cancers/leukemia from
• cosmic radiation
• cabin air exposures

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Conclusions
The information reviewed suggests that

• Air travel is one of the safest forms of
  transportation and accident risk is lower now
  than in previous years
• there are about 22 hijackings per year and, on
  average, 100 deaths from all forms of terrorism
  worldwide per year.