Aspirational targets for 2050

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Aspirational targets for 2050

• Workshop organized by
• TFIAM and ACCENT
• in co-operation with the Working Group on
  Effects, CCE, CIAM, TFEIP, TFRN, EGTEI, TFH, ICP
  Vegetation, ICP Materials
• Utrecht 5-6 March 2009

Rob Maas, 12 March 2009
52 participants, a.o JRC, EEA, IPCC CONCAWE, EEB
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Questions

• How do we want the environment in 2050 to look
  like? What are long term objectives for air
  pollution policy?
• How much emission reduction is required?
• What would an ambitious climate policy contribute
  to that goal?
• What steps have to be taken?
• How to incorporate aspirational targets in a
  protocol?

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Open doors

• The long term objectives of the Gothenburg
  Protocol require structural measures and
  behavioural changes.
• The long term future starts today - even a long
  journey starts with a first step!
• Choose your destination, plan the best route, but
  remain flexible.
• Invest in a good preparation a shared vision,
  social support, RD, institutions policy
  instruments.
• Avoid a lock-in in unsustainable side roads.
• Avoid negative side effects no swapping between
  air pollution, climate change or water pollution.
  

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From impacts to measures

• Formulate an inspiring long term vision
• Add a date to long term no-effect objectives
• Translate environmental objectives for 2050 into
  reduction targets for deposition and exposure
• Translate exposure targets into emission
  reductions
• Define intermediate steps short term actions
  based on risk management cost-effectiveness
  considerations

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Long term objectives

• Formulate an inspiring long term vision
• No (significant) damage to health and
  ecosystems a world without negative side
  effects from combustion and cattle.
• Add a date to (existing) long term impact
  objectives
• Limit the loss of life expectancy in 2050 to ..
  months
• No death due to ozone exposure in 2050
• No significant damage to vegetation from ozone
  in 2050
• No significant damage of cultural heritage from
  sulfur in 2050
• Meet critical loads for acidification and
  nitrogen in all of the priority ecosystems in
  2050
• or have all of the priority ecosystems in a
  phase of biological recovery by 2050
• or have all of the priority ecosystems fully
  recovered by 2050

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Exceedance acidity crit.loads
Violation acidity target loads
7 area exceeded (AAE gt 0)
8 area violated (AAE gt0)
Cultural heritage requires stricter limits to
SO2, HNO3 PM exposure
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Exc. of CL eutrophication
Violation TL eutrophication
48 area exceeded (AAE gt 0)
49 area violated (AAE gt0)
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Exceedance of CLnut(N) with zero NH3 emissions
everywhere
Caveat Linearised EMEP model used
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It would be a surprise if our understanding of
the role of PM would not change in the next 40
years
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Comparison of SOMO35 with ozone flux to vegetation
Ozone flux to crops (AFst3gen, mmol m-2)
SOMO35 (ppm d)
Human health-based parameters will not protect
vegetation from ozone in large areas of Europe
1EMEP ICP Vegetation
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Change in surface mean ozone concentration (2050
2000)
Max. season ?O3 (20502000 ?Clim)
Max. season ?O3 (20502000 ?Emiss)
With climate change
With emission control
Figure 5.8 Royal Society Report, 2008
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Indicative aspirational targets
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Linkage with climate policy

• Even without climate policy air pollution would
  decrease.
• Climate policy could lead to even less air
  pollution.
• CO2 reductions give comparable reductions in SO2
  emissions.
• Reductions of NOX PM are lower biofuels and
  1st generation CCS do not reduce NOX or could
  even lead to more emission.
• Emissions of NH3 and VOC are unrelated.

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Co-benefits of aspirational climate targets
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With behavioural change lower emissions possible
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Synergies and antagonisms

• Climate policy has a long term focus air
  pollution policy could offer short term benefits.
  Reduction of black carbon ozone leads to less
  radiative forcing and health risks at the short
  term.
• It is unavoidable that SO2 secondary PM
  reductions will lead to less masking of climate
  change.
• Additional air pollution policy remains necessary
  for urban air pollution and reduced nitrogen ?
  behavioural changes!
• Design environmental policies in an environmental
  friendly way avoid swapping by integrated
  approach

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Quantitative targets

• Translate environmental objectives for 2050 into
  ranges of reduction targets for deposition, and
  exposure ? specified for regions or countries
• Translate exposure targets into ranges of
  emission reductions for regions or countries.
• Define intermediate steps ? were should we be
  between 2020 and 2050?
• Define short term actions create a
  shared vision, build innovation networks, invest
  in RD, develop policy instruments social
  support, .

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MFR end-of-pipe Climate Policy behavioural
change speed limits public transport
renovation of dwellings Social support ????
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Spain fast reductions possible after 2020 !
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How to build social support ?
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Risk management

• Uncertainty The future is uncertain (but with 2
  GDP growth, incomes would double in next 40
  years)
• Incertitude Cost curves for 2050 cannot be
  known, they depend on (investments in)
  technological developments.
• Instruments Can we steer developments in right
  directions by setting the right environmental
  constraints incentives. How to create long term
  social support?
• Ambition Focus on prevention of the most serious
  risks, on no-effect levels for the most sensitive
  people ecosystems, or ?
• Flexibility Prepare for new scientific findings.
  It would be a surprise if our understanding of
  the role of PM would not change
• Robustness Effects are estimated with 50
  probability, does this give enough certainty?

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Economic crises are periods of creative
destruction. In times of crisis leadership
vision are required.
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Follow up recommendations

• Invite various bodies under the Convention to
  consider aspirational interim targets
• WGSR to consider ways to include long term
  vision, objectives and non-binding targets in a
  protocol.