The NASA

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The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and
Transition (SPoRT) Center Huntsville WFO
Assessment of NASA Products Chris Darden
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Brief Review of FY 05 Accomplishments

• WRF Assessment Results (from WFO HUN forecaster
  assessment period)
• Completed last fall and shared with forecast
  staff
• Results were deemed useful by forecasters in
  decision making process
• Enhanced Mesoscale Model Training
• Addl WRF Seminar held October 12, 2005
• Expansion of Modeling Efforts
• AWIPS ingest started at WFO MOB
• Also received interest from WFO MRX

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Brief Review of FY 05 Accomplishments

• Additional LMA Case Studies Gathered
• Identified approx. 9 cases to date that are of
  particular interest
• There are many more cases where LMA data have
  been used. These cases represent a cross-section
  of various storm types, thermodynamic, and
  kinematic regimes
• 22 LMA Surveys were completed in FY 05
• Significant jump in surveys from the previous
  year
• In many cases, the forecasters found the LMA data
  provided addl confidence in the Warning Decision
  Process
• Either potentially increasing lead times or
  decreasing FARs
• A couple of examples will be shown later

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Brief Review of FY 05 Accomplishments

• A few comments from the LMA Surveys and general
  correspondence/emails
• When I did look at the LMA data before issuing a
  warning, I did feel more confident in issuing the
  warning. I like the LMA data! If this data IS
  also incorporated into SCAN probably more
  forecasters here will routinely use this data.
  Henry S. - OHX
• LMA helped with "confidence" about warnings.
• This (LMA) allowed us additional lead time
  (10-15 minutes) to issue/update Significant
  Weather Alerts for the affected county.
• All three warnings were verified with no missed
  events that we know of. The LMA data was utilized
  throughout the event by the warning forecaster on
  duty.
• In particular, there were cells in Shelby and
  Jefferson counties that showed nice jumps in
  advance of severe wx occurrences.

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Brief Review of FY 05 Accomplishments

• Collaborative efforts have been well represented
  at professional conferences and workshops
• Specifically, NWS Presentations Include
• Four papers/presentations at 2005 AMS
• Four more planned for 2006 AMS
• Oral Presentation at Spring 05 SECAPS
• Southern Thunder, DFW
• Formal Visitview Teletraining materials were
  prepared and presented to NWS SR forecasters
  (Feb. 05) on Total Lightning Applications
• Material also part of the office severe weather
  training plan

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Brief Review of FY 05 Accomplishments

• Expansion of NASA satellite products at NWS field
  offices
• Delivery of MODIS and AMSR-E datasets into WFO
  MFL, MOB, and SMG
• Feedback from coastal offices quite positive
  (more about that later)
• Continued utilization of high spatial resolution
  NASA satellite data in support of WFO operations
• Forecasters have noted that the increased spatial
  resolution of the MODIS datasets has allowed for
  enhanced customer support/forecasts for mesoscale
  phenomenon such as fires, valley fog, etc.
• Will show a few examples

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Brief Review of FY 05 Accomplishments

• Inclusion of Convective Initiation Products into
  AWIPS
• Initial training session completed Spring 05
• Dry run of data ingest during the summer with
  addl tweaking
• Plans for operational rollout for the Spring
  06 convective season
• WFO MRX also interested in CI Products
• Access to dual-polarimetric ARMOR data (since
  Spring 05) has provided addl avenues for
  collaboration and research activities.

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NowLets Share a Few Success Stories

• Since early May, WFO MFL has been receiving MODIS
  and AMSR-E products
• This brings the total number of WFOs receiving
  some form of NASA developed or derived products
  to 7.
• During a recent event of very high impact
  (Hurricane Wilma), these datasets were quite
  helpful in the decision making process for the
  local forecast office.
• However, even during more benign regimes, these
  datasets are quite useful in the data sparse
  regions adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico.

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• in high wind events tipping buckets dont
  always give you the true sense of how much is
  really raining.
• MODIS data we have found it to be very useful
  in giving us a better sense of how extensive the
  cloud cover is at night, detecting low level
  clouds which is critical for aviation forecasting
  operationsdetecting cloud streets and subtle
  convergent lines during day time with the high
  res visible Pablo Santos, SOO

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Here's an example from yesterday (the 7th) of
how we can use the 88D and 3.9u IR imagery to
sense fires during the fire weather season. Andy
Kula, WFO HUN Note The IR temp was only 27C from
GOES (not shown) but showed up much better from
MODIS.
Location of Fire
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• High resolution data quite useful to assess
  existing soil moisture
• MODIS SSTs provide much more detailed information
  for coastal office
• Coastal offices can utilize this detailed
  information for ingest into GFE for water temps
  and other smart tools and procedures

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Local Modeling

• Why is it important?
• Provides our forecasters with much needed
  experience with the WRF model
• Provides an alternative mesoscale solution to the
  NAM (as potential input into GFE)
• NCEP WRF currently only run once per day
• Lack of continuity not desirable
• Forecasters not able to get a handle on how the
  model is doing
• Not available in AWIPS

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00 UTC August 4, 2005
24h forecast 3h accumulated precipitation
NAM
WRF
Composite radar reflectivity
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12 UTC August 25, 2005
Composite radar reflectivity
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Lightning Initiatives

• Utilization of LMA Source Density Fields for
  Warning Decision Making
• Utilization of LMA for first strike forecasting
• Development of Lightning Threat Index for
  Emergency Managers
• Correlate LMA fields with CI work to improve
  convective nowcasting and TAFs

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Lightning Case Study 1

• October 18, 2004
• Rotating storm near edges of radar coverage
• LMA provided forecaster extra confidence in
  tornado warning

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Radar Coverage
KHTX
KGWX
o
0.5 Elevation Heights FROM KHTX 10889 ft MSL FROM
KGWX 7559 ft MSL
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October 18, 2004 Case
0.5 º SRM
1.5 º SRM
Developing Mesocyclone/Hook
0.5 º Refl
LMA Source Density
Minimal Electrical Activity
2234 UTC
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October 18, 2004 Case
0.5 º SRM
1.5 º SRM
Persistent Couplet
0.5 º Refl
LMA Source Density
Lightning Jump
2240 UTC
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October 18, 2004 Case
0.5 º SRM
1.5 º SRM
Strengthening Couplet
0.5 º Refl
LMA Source Density
Slight decrease in source count
2244 UTC
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October 18, 2004 Case
0.5 º SRM
1.5 º SRM
Minutes before tornado touchdown
0.5 º Refl
LMA Source Density
Continued decrease in sources
2250 UTC
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Lightning Case Study 2

• November 15, 2005
• Rotating storm again near edges of radar coverage
• LMA provided forecaster extra confidence in
  tornado warning

1/2
F0
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November 15, 2005 Case
LMA Source Density
0.5 º SRM
Minimal Electrical Activity
Broad Rotational Couplet
0.9 º Refl
0.5 º Refl
0213 UTC
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November 15, 2005 Case
Some Increase in Rotation and IC Rates
0217 UTC
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November 15, 2005 Case
Lightning Jump and Tightening of Couplet
0221 UTC
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November 15, 2005 Case
Decrease in IC Sources Rates
0226 UTC
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November 15, 2005 Case
Time of Tornado Touchdown
0230 UTC
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Can LMA Data Provide CG Lead Time?

• Some Results from NSSL Experiments
• 20-25 within one min., 80 within 8 mins.

Courtesy Don MacGorman (STEPS Experiment)
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LMA Providing Lead Time for First CGs
Developing Convection
No CGs reported
10-20 LMA sources
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First CGs Reported 5 Minutes Later
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Team up with Convective Initiation

• Dr. Mecikalski at UAH
• Use in conjunction with LMA to highlight threat
  areas
• Illustrates possible thunderstorm development
  next 0-2 hours
• Provide enhanced nowcasting information and
  expanded support to local partners and customers

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Satellite-Lightning Relationships

• Current Work Develop relationships between IR
  TB/TB and lightning source counts/flash densities
  toward nowcasting (0-2 hr) future lightning
  occurrence
• Supported by the NASA New Investigator Program
  Award NAG5-12536

North Alabama LMA Lightning Source Counts
2040-2050 UTC
2047 UTC
2147 UTC
2140-2150 UTC
kkoooooooookkkkkkkkkkk
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End Result

• Provide a decision support tool to local
  emergency managers
• Would include some type of threat index or
  probability of lightning
• Based on LMA/NLDN output, cell tracking
  information, and hopefully 0-3 CI information

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Summary and Future Plans

• WFO Collaborative Goals For The Coming Year.
• Finalize and deliver a Lightning Threat
  Index/Product (in some form) to the emergency
  management community
• Begin utilizing ADAS in operations for analysis
  and as initialization/verification input into
  GFE.
• Another Lightning Teletraining Session
• A recorded version of the Visitview files for
  audio playback
• Develop a clearer picture of where were going
  with the local/mesoscale modeling program
• Local modeling is EXTREMELY important to the WFO,
  and we want this relationship to continue in some
  capacity!

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Summary and Future Plans

• WFO Collaborative Goals For The Coming Year.
• Solidify contact points at WFO BMX and OHX.
• Take FAM trips if necessary/requested.
• Integrate the CI products into our aviation and
  short term forecast framework
• Ensure adequate staff training and
  familiarization
• Continue to synthesize dual-polarimetric (ARMOR)
  data and other near-storm environment datasets
  (MIPS) with NASA products/datasets to enhance
  short term forecasts and warnings
• NWS SCEP student (and UAH masters student)
  currently working on such a cross-cutting thesis
• Continue to gather/identify LMA cases of interest
  and pursue partnership with FL/NSSL Lightning
  Proposal

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Summary and Future Plans

• Continue to Gather LMA Case Studies
• Goal is to have one extensive case study (May 6,
  2003) complete and delivered to all participating
  offices this year
• Need to identify available resources to conduct
  addl thorough studies/event reviews for
  verification and publication
• WFO time limited in this area
• Perhaps a fully funded graduate student?

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Summary and Future Plans

• A Bigger Picture Idea.
• Cant take credit for this one. Our MIC Mike
  Coyne came up with the idea originally.
• Start a Special Topics course in the UAH ATS
  program which would essentially be a formal
  volunteer program with the NWS
• One of the tasks of the students participating
  might be assisting with the heavy lifting
  necessary for case studies, reviews,
  verification, etc.

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Questions or Comments?