Cattle Situation and Outlook September 2006

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Cattle Situation and Outlook September 2006

• Tim Petry
• Livestock Economist
• www.ag.ndsu.edu/aginfo/lsmkt/livestock.htm

09-25-06
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As we know, there are known knowns. There are
thingswe know we know. We also know there are
known unknowns. That is to say we know there are
some things we do not know. But there are also
unknown unknowns, the ones we dont know we
dont know. -- Donald H. Rumsfeld, Secretary of
Defense Department of Defense news
briefing February 12, 2002
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Livestock Marketing Information Center Data
Source USDA/NASS
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Cyclical Rebuilding Is Continuing!
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data
Source USDA/NASS
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Source LMIC
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U.S. Drought Monitor
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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SF_LS763 Sioux Falls, SD
Wed Sep 20, 2006 USDA-ND Ag Market News
Kist Livestock Auction Mandan, ND Feeder
Cattle Weighted Average Report for 09/20/2006
Receipts 996 Last Week N/A Year Ago
1356 No recent price comparison available,
therefore a trend was not established. Demand
moderate to good. Todays feeder cattle run was
comprised of 55 percent steers, and 45 percent
heifers. 23 percent over 600 lbs. Feeder Steers
Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt
Price Range Avg Price 5 363
363 150.00 150.00 24
422-437 425 143.50-145.00 144.68
57 457-485 468 132.00-139.75
136.74 49 503-518 511
127.50-134.50 131.97 48 551-575
571 125.50-129.75 128.71 25
613-623 622 121.50-128.75 127.89
9 663-690 675 114.50-120.00
117.00 6 719 719 116.50
116.50 20 1065 1065
101.25 101.25
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Livestock Marketing Information Center Data
Source USDA/NASS
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Breakeven Prices for 1300 lb Fed Steers750 to
1300 lbADG 3.5 lbs157 Days on Feed
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Futures Prices9-25-06
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Price Risk Management Tools

• Cash forward contract
• Video and internet auctions
• CME futures
• CME options
• Livestock Risk Protection (LRP)
• Livestock Gross Margin (LGM)
• Which one or combination fits your marketing plan?

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AM_LS753 Amarillo, TX
Mon Sep
25, 2006 USDA-TX Dept of Ag
Market News Superior Video Auction -
Thursday-Friday September 21-22, 2006 0fferings
63,000 Trade and demand moderate. Supply
includes 43 percent feeder steers and heifers
over 600 lbs, 58 percent of supply steers and 42
percent heifers. Prices FOB based on net weights
after a 2-3 percent pencil shrink or equivalent,
with a 3-6 cent slide on yearlings and 4-10 on
calves. Deliveries current through February
2007.

Northcentral States
Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, Montana, North and
South Dakota and Iowa

Feeder Steers
Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price
Range Avg Price Delivery 110 430
430 155.00 155.00 Oct
553 500-540 530 131.00-134.00
132.00 Oct 183 500-525 515
126.50-140.50 134.20 Oct Part
Loads 80 570 570 133.50
133.50 Oct 190 615-625
622 114.00-123.00 119.50 Oct
Part Loads 60 675 675
117.00 117.00 Oct Part Loads
290 830-835 831 107.25-110.85
109.98 Oct 59 850 850
114.75 114.75 Oct 112
450 450 143.00 143.00
Oct-Nov 105 470 470
146.00 146.00 Nov 387
500-540 518 132.50-140.00 136.56
Nov 287 550-580 567
127.50-139.00 132.25 Nov 51
550 550 129.50 129.50
Nov Part Loads 341 600-630 609
117.00-138.00 128.36 Nov
Calves 198 700-725 716
119.50-123.00 121.83 Jan Calves
50 780 780 108.00
108.00 Jan Calves 65 750
750 107.00 107.00 Feb
Calves 112 850 850 106.75
106.75 Mar
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Premiums Likely (but not consistent) For

• Verified shots (ND VIP)
• Natural (no antibiotics or implants)
• Source/age verified
• Weaned
• BQA
• Replacement quality heifers
• Check with your market before selling

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Questions?