Intro

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Intro

• Reconciling Policy and Reality
• In the Human Capital Economy
• XAP Institute for Education and Career
  Transitions
• Webinar
• December 16, 2008
• Tom Mortenson
• Senior Scholar
• The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity
  in Higher Education
• Higher Education Policy Analyst
• Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY

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The First RealityThe Human Capital Economy

• To 1973 The Rising Tide
• 1973 to 2000 Income Redistribution
• 2000 to ? Global Competition

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Average Annual Income for Males by Educational
Attainment
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Average Annual Income for Females by Educational
Attainment
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Average Family Income by Educational Attainment
of Householder
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Total U.S. Employment
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Distribution of U.S. Employment by Industry
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Distribution of Goods Producing Employment by
Industry 1948-2007
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Distribution of Service Providing Employment by
Industry Trade/Transport/Utilities,
Professional/Business and Other
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Distribution of Service Providing Employment by
Industry Health/Education, Leisure/Hospitality,
Financial Information
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Distribution of Government Employment by Level
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Change in Shares of Total Employment by Industry
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The Second Reality Changing Demography

• Shrinking Share of White High School Graduates
• Growing Share of Minority High School Graduates
• Growing Share of K-12 Students Receiving
• Subsidized School Lunches

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15.DEMOGRAF
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16.DEMOGRFA
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White High School Graduates, White non-Hispanic
High School Graduates
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Non-White High School Graduates, Non-White plus
Hispanic HS Grads
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White College Freshmen, White non-Hispanic
College Freshmen
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Non-White College Freshmen, Non-White plus
Hispanic Coll. Fresh.
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(No Transcript)
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The Education PipelineBy Family Income Quartiles

• High School Graduation
• College Continuation
• Bachelors Degree Completion
• Bachelors Degree Attainment

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High School Graduation Rates by Family Income
Quartiles for Dependent 18 to 24 Year Olds
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College Continuation Rates by Family Inc
Quartiles, Dependent 18-24 Year Old HS Grads
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College Participation Rates by Family Inc
Quartiles, Dependent 18-24 year olds
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Estimated Bachelors Degree Completion Rates by
Age 24 by Family Income Quartiles for Dependent
College Students Who Began College
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Estimated Baccalaureate Degree Attainment by Age
24 by Family Income Quartile
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Distribution of Bachelors Degrees Awarded by Age
24 by Family Income Quartiles
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Policy Responses toEconomic and Demographic
Realities

• Federal Policy Choices
• State Policy Choices
• Institutional Policy Choices

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31.FEDAID
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32.N162FG12
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Appropriations of State Tax Funds for Operating
Expenses
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38.N121FG3
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39.STATEAID
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40.N160FG12
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Consequences for OpportunityFor Students in
Higher Education

• Pell Grant Recipients
• Minorities
• Family Income Quartiles
• Median Family Income
• Admission Selectivity

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41.NASSGAP1
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42.N160FG5
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47.N160FG10
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48.N160FG11
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49.N160FG1
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50.N160FG2
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54.N160FG13
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55.N160FG14
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International Rankings

• Educational Attainment
• Changes in Educational Attainment
• Participation Rates
• Changes in Participation Rates

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Upper Secondary Graduation Rates
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Change in Upper Secondary Graduation Rates in
OECD and Partner Countries
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Upper Secondary Attainment Rate
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Change in Upper Secondary Attainment Rate
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Tertiary Type-B Degree Attainment Rates..in OECD
and Partner Countries
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Change in Tertiary Type-B Degree Attainment Rates
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Tertiary Type-A Graduation Rates in OECD and
Partner Countries
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Change in Tertiary Type-A Graduation Rates in
OECD Countries
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Tertiary Type-A Degree Attainment Rates
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Change in Tertiary Type-A Degree Attainment Rates
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69.JUSTEFFICIENT
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Resources
Resources
www.postsecondary.org tom_at_postsecondary.org