Discussion on The Art of the Long View Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World

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Discussion on The Art of the Long View- Planning
for the Future in an Uncertain World

• General overview of the reading
• Discussion of various issues and their possible
  scenarios
• Issues paper- our topics, and feedback from
  classmates

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The Art of the Long View

• Scenarios are stories about the way the world
  might turn out tomorrow, stories that can help us
  recognize and adapt to changing aspects of our
  present environment. They form a method for
  articulating the different pathways that might
  exist for you tomorrow, and finding your
  appropriate movements down each of those possible
  paths. (p. 3)

• Mind-sets tend to keep us from seeing the
  appropriate questions to ask about a decision.
  Thus, every scenario effort begins by looking
  inward. You begin by examining the mind-sets
  which you personally use consciously or
  unconsciously to make judgments about the
  future. Think of this as a form of research. (p.
  50)

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The Art of the Long View

• Key forces
• Society
• Technology
• Economics
• Politics
• Environment

• What to look for
• Science and Technology
• Perception-shaping events (i.e. television)
• Music
• Fringes

• Where to look
• Remarkable People
• Sources of Surprise
• Filters

- Questions?
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Issues Paper Instructions

•   The issues paper should characterize the
  arena and scope you have picked, characterize the
  stakeholders and their stakes, and explain what
  stakes matter to which stakeholders, what is at
  issue among the stakeholders, and estimate when
  and how the scenario will end.
•   Setting the modest scope of your scenario
  is a critical choice. The broader the scope, the
  more difficult and perhaps impossible a job you
  will carve out for yourself.
•   Limit the number of principal stakeholders
  you consider. For there to be controversy, you
  need to have at least a pair of contending
  parties, chosen from among individuals,
  companies, industries or government agencies.
  Limit the principal arena. One specific concern
  of individuals, one company product line, the
  jurisdiction of one congressional committee, one
  agency program, etc. can be enough. Then draw in
  context only as needed.

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Issues Paper Instructions

•   The issue or issues you deal with should be
  important to the protagonists the stakeholders
  should be real in the here and now. If the
  issues are not as important to you as they are to
  the stakeholders, pick another arena! Why?
  Because if you settle on an issue that no one
  else besides you actively cares about, the odds
  are that you will find no solid facts on which to
  base your scenario.
•   The starting point of your scenario must be
  the present. Feel free to define that "as of" up
  to a year ago.
•   Draw on the past as needed.
• The end point of the scenario must occur at
  least three to five years ahead. Few decisions
  made now would have significant effects before
  then. Somewhere between ten to twenty years
  ahead will likely be sensible in most cases.

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Kirkland House Senior Common Room Forum presents
A Conversation with Jack Valenti

• President and CEO of the Motion Picture
  Association of America

• Former Special Assistant to President Lyndon B.
  Johnson

• Author

Monday, November 18, 2002 400 PM Kirkland Junior
Common Room Mr. Valenti is regarded as one of the
most experienced and powerful "behind the scenes"
men in America Open to the Harvard University
Community
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Kirkland House Senior Common Room Forum presents
A Conversation with Jack Valenti
Jack Valenti President and Chief Executive
Officer of the Motion Picture Association of
America, Jack Valenti has presided over a world
wide sea change in the industry. New magical
technology, the rise of importance of
international markets, the tyranny of piracy have
radically changed the landscape of the American
film and television industry. It is Valenti's
duty and challenge to lead the confrontation with
these global dangers, problems and opportunities.
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Brainstorming Issues

• Identify Focal Issues or Decision
• Key Forces in the Local Environment
• Driving Forces
• Rank by Importance and Uncertainty
• Selecting Scenario Logics
• Implications

Modified list from The Art of the Long View
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Our Issues

• Discussion of the issues that each member of the
  class is thinking about for the term paper.
• What is the issue?
• Who are the stakeholders?
• What are their stakes?
• What are some long term scenarios?
• Feedback from classmates
• Any similar projects?