Title: Discussion on The Art of the Long View Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World
1Discussion on The Art of the Long View- Planning
for the Future in an Uncertain World
- General overview of the reading
- Discussion of various issues and their possible
scenarios - Issues paper- our topics, and feedback from
classmates
2The Art of the Long View
- Scenarios are stories about the way the world
might turn out tomorrow, stories that can help us
recognize and adapt to changing aspects of our
present environment. They form a method for
articulating the different pathways that might
exist for you tomorrow, and finding your
appropriate movements down each of those possible
paths. (p. 3)
- Mind-sets tend to keep us from seeing the
appropriate questions to ask about a decision.
Thus, every scenario effort begins by looking
inward. You begin by examining the mind-sets
which you personally use consciously or
unconsciously to make judgments about the
future. Think of this as a form of research. (p.
50)
3The Art of the Long View
- Key forces
- Society
- Technology
- Economics
- Politics
- Environment
- What to look for
- Science and Technology
- Perception-shaping events (i.e. television)
- Music
- Fringes
- Where to look
- Remarkable People
- Sources of Surprise
- Filters
- Questions?
4Issues Paper Instructions
- The issues paper should characterize the
arena and scope you have picked, characterize the
stakeholders and their stakes, and explain what
stakes matter to which stakeholders, what is at
issue among the stakeholders, and estimate when
and how the scenario will end. - Setting the modest scope of your scenario
is a critical choice. The broader the scope, the
more difficult and perhaps impossible a job you
will carve out for yourself. - Limit the number of principal stakeholders
you consider. For there to be controversy, you
need to have at least a pair of contending
parties, chosen from among individuals,
companies, industries or government agencies.
Limit the principal arena. One specific concern
of individuals, one company product line, the
jurisdiction of one congressional committee, one
agency program, etc. can be enough. Then draw in
context only as needed.
5Issues Paper Instructions
- The issue or issues you deal with should be
important to the protagonists the stakeholders
should be real in the here and now. If the
issues are not as important to you as they are to
the stakeholders, pick another arena! Why?
Because if you settle on an issue that no one
else besides you actively cares about, the odds
are that you will find no solid facts on which to
base your scenario. - The starting point of your scenario must be
the present. Feel free to define that "as of" up
to a year ago. - Draw on the past as needed.
- The end point of the scenario must occur at
least three to five years ahead. Few decisions
made now would have significant effects before
then. Somewhere between ten to twenty years
ahead will likely be sensible in most cases.
6Kirkland House Senior Common Room Forum presents
A Conversation with Jack Valenti
- President and CEO of the Motion Picture
Association of America
- Former Special Assistant to President Lyndon B.
Johnson
Monday, November 18, 2002 400 PM Kirkland Junior
Common Room Mr. Valenti is regarded as one of the
most experienced and powerful "behind the scenes"
men in America Open to the Harvard University
Community
7Kirkland House Senior Common Room Forum presents
A Conversation with Jack Valenti
Jack Valenti President and Chief Executive
Officer of the Motion Picture Association of
America, Jack Valenti has presided over a world
wide sea change in the industry. New magical
technology, the rise of importance of
international markets, the tyranny of piracy have
radically changed the landscape of the American
film and television industry. It is Valenti's
duty and challenge to lead the confrontation with
these global dangers, problems and opportunities.
8Brainstorming Issues
- Identify Focal Issues or Decision
- Key Forces in the Local Environment
- Driving Forces
- Rank by Importance and Uncertainty
- Selecting Scenario Logics
- Implications
Modified list from The Art of the Long View
9Our Issues
- Discussion of the issues that each member of the
class is thinking about for the term paper. - What is the issue?
- Who are the stakeholders?
- What are their stakes?
- What are some long term scenarios?
- Feedback from classmates
- Any similar projects?