World Bank Climate Investment Funds

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World Bank Climate Investment Funds

• Report of PPCR Expert Group on Country Selection
  Process

27 January 2009
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Context

• Remit
• Identify 5-10 countries or groups or countries
  for participation in PPCR
• Address a number of criteria
• vulnerability
• eligibility
• country preparedness rapid results
• country distribution (regional)
• Hazard types
• Coherence value addition
• Replicability sustainability
• Scalability development impact

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Addressing criteria in ToR

• Criteria
• Hazard (V), vulnerability (I) preparedness
  (III) addressed explicitly
• Country distribution (IV) addressed through
  choice of regions
• Eligibility (II) considered - countries not
  selected if ineligible
• Replicability sustainability (VII) related to
  regional contexts
• Scalability development impact (VIII) function
  of development hazard contexts
• Coherence value addition (VI) depends on
  specific national contexts
• To a significant extent, VI, VII VIII will
  depend on nature of programmes projects
  supported, how they are implemented - cannot
  pre-judge

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How to approach the problem?

• Practical considerations
• Short timescale
• How to bring some coherence transparency to
  process?
• What data to use?
• How to deploy data? Problems with
  indicator-driven approaches
• How to address criteria?
• How to ensure selection relevant to climate
  change?

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The EGs approach

• Risk assessment approach
• Address climate change risks faced by countries
• Risk arises from interaction of hazards with
  underlying vulnerability

• Hazard as an entry point for analysis
• STEP 1
• Identify long-term, large-scale climate change
  hazards
• Select climate change hot-spots where these
  hazards are high
• STEP 2
• Identify which countries are most vulnerable to
  hazard(s) in question
• Use indicators relevant to region, hazard
  development context

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Hazards are not just about extremes and
variability
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Climate change hot-spots in Africa

• North Africa / Maghreb
• Extreme desiccation - risks to water
  availability, agriculture, rangelands, food
  security

• Southern Africa
• Desiccation coupled with risk of
  landscape/ecosystem collapse in greater Kalahari
  region ENSO impacts
• Risks to livelihoods, food security, water
  resources

• Sahel
• Highly uncertain, increased rainfall variability,
  possibility of wetter conditions but not
  necessarily sustained
• How to deal with decadal-scale variability
  longer? Risks of maladaptation

Annual temperature precipitation changes over
Africa between 1980-1999 2080-2099 from MMD-A1B
simulations, men for 21 models.
Source IPCC (2007)
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Indicators for vulnerability screening in North
Africa / Maghreb

• LECZ - population in low-elevation coastal zone
• CRDIa - total no. affected by climate-related
  disasters 1978-2007, scaled by 2007 popn.
• IWS - of population with access to improved
  water source
• FI - food insecurity inferred from of
  population undernourished
• HDI - human development index rank, proxy for
  adaptive capacity
• CVI - climate vulnerability index (emphasising
  water)
• CDVI - number of occurrences in top fifth of
  vulnerability index with 13 different weights
• CDRIb - historical climate disaster risk on scale
  1-5 based across related indices for 1990s
• RAI - Resource allocation index, proxy for
  country preparedness

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Other hot-spot regions identified
South Asia Exposed to changes in water
availability resulting from loss of Himalayan
glaciers. Loss of water outside monsoon season,
also extremes, SLR. Southeast Asia High exposure
to sea-level rise and associated coastal climate
change hazards due to low-lying land, megadeltas,
high population. Central Asia Exposed to
desiccation as a result of high temperature
increases, significant reductions in rainfall
loss of snow-melt from mountain regions. Andean
region Exposed to severe reductions in water
availability due to glacier loss, also other
hazards linked to ENSO, circulation
changes. Caribbean High exposure to a suite of
hazards associated with sea-level rise, possible
changes in tropical storms, ecosystem loss,
desiccation water loss. Pacific Islands
Similar to Caribbean region, with additional
problems of isolation fact that many islands
are low-lying atolls. North Africa/Magreb,
Southern Africa Sahel (previous slide) 9
regions
Based on projections from IPCC AR4 (2007), expert
judgment review of other, post-AR4 literature.
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Countries regional groups selected
Country or group Alternate Possible regional group
1 - -
2 - -
3 Bolivia (Andean region) Peru Colombia, Ecuador
4 Bangladesh (South Asia) India Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives
5 Nepal (South Asia) Bhutan Combine Nepal Bhutan
6 - -
7 Tajikistan (Central Asia) Uzbekistan Turkmenistan, Kyrghyz Rep., Kazakhstan
8 Mauritania (N. Africa) Morocco
9 Zambia (southern Africa) Angola
10 Niger (Sahel) Chad Mali /or Sudan
11 Mozambique (African LDCs) Ethiopia, Sierra Leone None proposed
Caribbean region (Dominica, Guyana, Haiti)
Pacific region (countries TBC)
Cambodia, Vietnam, Philippines (Southeast Asia)
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Country distribution
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Comments on countries selected

• Global distribution - regional balance
• Diverse environments development contexts
• A range of key long-term hazards also linked with
  extreme events
• Identification of additional high-risk African
  LDCs

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Strengths of the EGs approach

• Coherent methodology conceptual framework
• Transparent process
• Combines expert judgment with indicator-based
  data
• Not reductionist - not based on single-number
  index
• Addresses contextual nature of risk (to an
  extent)
• Is climate change specific (except for
  preparedness indicator HDI)

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Caveats

• Top-down approach
• Characterisation of hazard vulnerability
  necessarily crude
• Based on projections that may be conservative -
  may miss certain hazards and/or underestimate
  their severity
• Focuses on large-scale, long-term, systemic
  hazards risks - countries may experience high
  risks due to other combinations of hazard
  vulnerability, e.g. combinations of extremes etc.

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Alternatives improvements

• More participatory selection process might be
  desirable
• has its own risks - easy to lose climate change
  focus

• Method could be refined by developing better
  indicators
• Hazard index addressing different national
  context
• Vulnerability indicators targeting national
  hazard development contexts
• Risk indices combining hazard vulnerability
• Time resource intensive undertaking, but might
  start with one region

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End of presentation