The MaddenJulian Oscillation and One to Two Week Atlantic Basin Hurricane Prediction

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The Madden-Julian Oscillation and One to Two Week
Atlantic Basin Hurricane Prediction Phil
Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric
Science Colorado State University Bahamas
Weather Conference April 17, 2009
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Outline

• Sources of Week One Skill
• Sources of Week Two Skill

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• Recently-Submitted Paper
• On the Madden-Julian Oscillation Atlantic
  Hurricane Relationship
• By Klotzbach, P. J., 2009. Submitted to Journal
  of Climate.

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MJO Propagation
200 mb
Day 0
850 mb
Indian Ocean
Pacific Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
200 mb
Day 10
850 mb
Indian Ocean
Pacific Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
200 mb
Day 20
850 mb
Indian Ocean
Pacific Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
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200 mb Velocity Potential MJO Relationship
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Phases 12
Phases 67
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Normalized Activity by MJO Phase (1974-2007)
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13 Major Hurricanes
36 Major Hurricanes
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10 Hurricane Landfalls
1 Hurricane Landfall
MJO Phase 2
MJO Phase 7
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21 Major Hurricanes
52 Major Hurricanes
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53 Major Hurricanes
89 Major Hurricanes
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0 Major Hurricanes
10 Major Hurricanes
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Tools for One to Two Week Prediction

• Storms On The Map
• NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks
• Global Model Forecasts
• Madden-Julian Oscillation

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Me Worry- WHY?
Alfred E. Neuman