Polarization and American Politics:

1
Polarization and American Politics Is there a
Center?
2
Polarization Argument

• Few moderates in politics
• Partisanship plays greater role in mass voting
• Partisanship plays greater role in Congress
• Party candidates stake out more clear
  ideological differences
• Culture war, Red v. Blue nation, etc.

3
The Electorate, 1974
Ideological self-placement of partisans. Percent
w/in each group
4
The Electorate in 2004
Ideological self-placement of partisans. Percent
w/in each group
5
Polarized Partisans Elites

• Partisans sorting themselves
• Gradual realignments since 1968
• Demise of southern Democrats
• Demise of New England Republicans
• Transition from economic to social issue
  divisions
• Institutions should reflect polarization

6
Party Unity in US House Floor Votes, 1960 - 2000
100
80
proportion of all floor votes with
majority of one party against
majority of the other
percent
60
of Democrats voting with party
on such votes
of Republicans voting with party
40
on such votes
20
2000
1970
1980
1990
Year
7
GOP trends since 1974
Ideological self-placement of Republicans
(excluding leaners)
8
Dem trends since 1974
Ideological self-placement of Democrats
(excluding leaners)
9
Polarization, 109th Congress
Number of seats classified by DW-Nom members
voting score
10
Feelings about 'opposite' party's presidential
candidate (thermometer scores)
Graph plots trends in Democratic identifiers
feelings about Republican presidential
candidates and Republican identifiers feelings
about Democratic presidential candidates.
11
Gap between Democrats and Republicans' Feelings
toward Republican candidates for Congress.
Graph plots the gap between Democrats feeling
thermometer ratings of Republican candidates,
and Republicans scores about Republican
candidates.
12
When seen this way Evidence of growing
Polarization Partisan voters more
partisan Partisan representatives more partisan
13
Another Picture of Electorate

• Retreat from parties and party system
  (dealingment)
• More independents
• Independents qualitatively different than
  partisans
• Little mass support for two-party system
• Polarization an artifact of electoral system
• (safe seats where people live)

14
The Electorate, 1974
Ideological self-placement of everyone.
Percent w/in each group
15
A Centered Electorate, 2004?
Ideological self-placement of everyone.
Percent w/in each group
16
The Electorate in 2004
Moderate Independents 26 of electorate (largest
block)
Ideological self-placement of everyone.
Proportion of electorate
17
Independents, 1952 - 2004
Responses to initial NES question, Generally
speaking..
18
Independents, since 1974
Ideological self-placement of independents
(including leaners)
19
2004 The Electorate

• 37 (plurality of Americans identify as
  independent)
• 40 of independents (who respond) ID as
  moderate middle
• 27 of all Americans (who respond) ID as
  moderate middle
• 23 ID as liberal
• 32 ID as conservative

20
Change since 1974
More GOP conservatives in Congress More liberal
Democrats in Congress Fewer Democrats and
Republicans in the electorate Polarization
without partisans Without meaningful political
competition
21
Reform Goals 50 yrs agoBuild Responsible Parties

• 1950s, Problem weak, incoherent parties,
• lack of accountability
• 1950s Reform goals
• Cohesive, ideologically distinct parties
• Party unity in legislature
• Greater party role in campaign finance
• Closed nominations (no blanket primary)
• Rank and file partisans select conv. delegates
• Greater role of policy in (national) campaigns

22
Responsible Party Model
APSA report also noted End one party rule
that renders elections meaningless in
much of nation End electoral college that
renders elections meaningless in much of nation
23
Decline of Competition, US House 1898 - 2000
0.25
0.2
0.15
Proportion seats won with less than 5 margin
0.1
0.05
0
1940
1950
1980
1960
1970
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1990
2000
2010
Year
Proportion of House seats won by 5 or less
24
Incumbent Victory Margins 1898 - 2000
0.5
0.4
0.3
DemMargin
GOPMargin
0.2
0.1
0
1980
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1990
2000
Year
25
Representation and Competition
Jan. 2005 - Dec 2006, by type of district. (109th
Cong)
26
Party Discipline w/o Competition

• High levels of cynicism about politics
• 43 agree, people have no say in 2004
• 27 agreed people have no say in 1960
• 56 agree elected officials dont care in 2004
• 25 agreed officials dont care in 1960
• Decline in turnout (?)

27
Are these trends related?

• Parties are now much more cohesive
• Soft money, fundraising post BCRA
• Congressional floor voting discipline
• Party leaders (in Govt.) more power
• Activists dominate presidential nominations
• Politics, media more partisan, more polarized
• Electoral competition often meaningless (swing,
  safe seats)
• Fewer partisans, engagement with politics down

28
Public Views of Elections Parties

• Less than 1/3 support maintaining two party
  system
• Few think that elections make government pay
  attention
• Turnout stagnant (down in north) despite fewer
  barriers

29
Do Elections Matter?
Trends in responses to NES q Do elections make
govt pay attn?
30
Do Elections Matter?

• Growing cynicism low efficacy about elections
• Pre-dates 2000 election disaster
• Pre-dates recently lobbying scandal
• Unlikely to be affected by HAVA like reforms

31
Do Elections Matter
How honest vote counting ( very dishonest,
2004) US 23 Venezuela 18 Taiwan 16 Mexic
o 13 Philippines 12 S Africa 8 Bulgaria
8 Slovakia 7 Chile 6 Russia 5 PR,
PO, JP, SW, SK, AU, GB NE, CA, FN, NZ, NO
lt 1
32
What problem should election reforms target?

• faith in elections
• public trust
• have elections express will of the people
• engagement with representative democracy
• participation
• polarization w/o partisans, w/o competition

33
Make Elections Worth Stealing
Assume the perfect election under HAVA - type
reforms polling places, early voting,
registration. Assume just one candidate has a
chance to win . Will HAVA reforms affect
anything?
34
Make Elections Worth Stealing
If you build it, they will come Electoral
competition -gt representation of center,
median Electoral competition -gt alter
composition of electorate Electoral competition
-gt interest, learning, participation Electoral
competition -gt accountability, change in
govt. Electoral competition -gt over crowded
polling locations, more Florida 2000,
cheating, etc.
35
Larger Questions
How much should government elections represent
those care the least about politics? Will more
competition make people upset? How much does
political apathy is due to the dysfunctional
aspects of institutions? What reforms?