Surveying the Digital Future: The Impact of the Internet

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Surveying the Digital FutureThe Impact of
the Internet

• Year Three The Emergence of Trends
• Jeffrey Cole, Ph.D.
• Director, UCLA Center for Communication Policy
• November 25, 2003
• Budapest, Hungary

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Television Viewing Affected

• For the first time in the 52-year history of
  American television, kids under 14 are watching
  less television
• They like computers and the Internet as much, if
  not more than television

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Television and the Internet

• Television is primarily about leisure and
  entertainment
• The Internet, like the printing press, affects
  all aspects of life work, school and play
  

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Lost Research Opportunity

• A Longitudinal Study of Television, beginning in
  1948 could have found
• Where the time for television came from
• How it affected
• consumer behavior, connection to the civic
  process, desire to travel, career goals and much
  else

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We are undertaking the study of the
Internet that should have been conducted on
television in the late 1940s
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The UCLA Project

• Annual Survey of 2000 Households
• Random digit-dial sample
• Users and non-users
• Household as point of contact, not
• only household use

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Non Users Study

• Why they are not connected to the Internet
• Perceptions of online life
• Barriers to entry

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Non Users Focus

• Create a baseline of
• Media use
• Communication patterns
• Consumer behavior
• Lifestyle issues
• Political and social attitudes and
  behaviors

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Users Study

• Why and how long on Internet
• Perception of online life
• The issue of broadband

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Users Focus

• Create a baseline of
• online activity
• media use
• communication patterns
• consumer behavior
• lifestyle issues
• political and social attitudes

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Countries and Regions in Current Comparisons

• United States
• Singapore
• Italy
• Sweden
• Japan
• Taiwan
• Great Britain
• India
• Iran

• Mainland China
• Macao
• Korea
• Germany
• Hungary
• Spain
• Chile
• Argentina
• Africa about to join

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The World Internet Project

• Not just usage, but effects
• Non-users as well as users
• Longitudinal for a generation
• International

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Who is online, who is not, and what do people do
on the Internet?
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Hours of Internet Connection from Anywhere per
Week
Hours by EXP (W-37)
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Internet Users by Experience
Stage 2 Catexp (10-14-03)
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Percent of Males and Females Who Use the Internet
Stage 4 Usenet x Gender (10-14-03)
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How would you rate your ability to use the
Internet?
Q640 (PG-44)
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Media Use and Trust
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During a typical week, about how many hours of
your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the
following activities NOT online?
Q690 (K-51)
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Average Hours per Week Spent Reading Books
Users vs. Non-Users
Hbooks x Usenet 7 extra questions (10-22-03)
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Average Hours per Week Spent Watching
TelevisionUsers vs. Non-Users
HTV x Usenet 7 extra questions (10-22-03)
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Is the following a very/extremely important
source of information/entertainment to you?
Q530 (M-1)
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Information on the Internet Is it Reliable and
Accurate? (Users Age 18 and above)
Stage 5 RELIA x Usenet (10-14-03)
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Communication Patterns
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Percent of respondents who have used e-mail to
contact members of the following professions
Telephone Modem vs. Broadband Users
Q267 x Broadband (PG-63)
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In your opinion, do those under 18 in your
household watch too much time, too little time,
or just the right amount of time watching TV?
Q1120 (DRF-40)
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In your opinion, do those under 18 in your
household spend too much time, too little time,
or just the right amount of time online? (age 18
or above with children in the household)
Q1120 (DRF-41)
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In your opinion, have the grades of those under
18 in your household improved or declined since
your household has started using the Internet?
Q1080 (M-2)
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Does anyone under 18 in your household get
punished by being denied access to the Internet
or television? (age 18 or above with children in
the household)
Q1100 (M-2)
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The Internet has increased the number of people I
regularly stay in contact with (Users)
Q970C-(DEF43) Revision
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I have multiple screen names and each screen
name has its own personality.
Q970E (DEF-53)
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Weekly contactEmail vs. Telephone vs. Face to
Face
Q310 (DEF-27)
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Because of your Internet access at work, do you
feel that you are much less, somewhat less,
neither more nor less, somewhat more, or much
more productive at your jobs?
Q490 (DRF-7)
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Social and Psychological Effects
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Since those under 18 in your household gained
access to the Internet, would you say they spend
more, less, or about the same amount of time with
friends? (age 18 or above with children in the
household)
Q1090 (K-57)
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How has the use of the Internet changed the
amount of time you spend face-to-face with close
friends?
Q990 (DRF-10)
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How has the use of the Internet changed the
amount of time you spend face-to-face with
friends? Family?
Q990 (DRF-20)
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Has the use of Internet increased or decreased
your contact with people who share your
profession?
GCPRO Stage 3 (10-14-03)
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Do you think by using the Internet, people like
you can have more say about what the government
does? (all respondents 18 and above)
Stage 3 PSAY (10-14-03)
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Do you think by using the Internet, people like
you can better understand politics? (all
respondents 18 and above)
Stage 3 PUNDERS (10-14-03)
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Summary
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Satisfaction with the InternetThe Internet
Overall
Q670G (K-8)
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Has communication technology made the world a
better place? (Non-users)
Q180Revisions (M-2)
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Has communication technology made the world a
better place? (Users)
Q180Revisions (M-1)
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Broadband Changes Everything

• Bigger gap between dial-up and broadband than
  between non-user and dial-up
• Dial-up is disruptive broadband integrative
• Broadband determines how often people log on, how
  long they stay on, what they do online and where
  they log on from
• Broadband predicts purchasing behavior and
  overall relationship to Internet

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Trends

• Advantages of experience on the Internet are
  diminishing rapidly
• The Digital Divide is narrowing in industrialized
  nations
• Korea with its heavy broadband and reliable
  wireless becoming most advanced nation in
  technology

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Observations

• Despite fears about security and privacy, users
  are buying earlier on the Internet
• Always on role of Broadband much more important
  than speed
• Resistance to paying for digital content seems
  strongnew efforts (I-Tunes) and threats may
  finally be having some effect

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Predictions

• Greater demand for ever present Internet at
  all places, rooms and through WiFi, PDAs, Mobile
  phones and other wireless
• Information role will always be more important
  than entertainment role
• Commerce moving rapidly to shopping and buying
  on-line

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The Future

• The Kitchen will be the Internet center of the
  home
• Several countries will be at 90 penetration in
  10 years
• Internet becomes ever-present and transparent
• Convergence is real

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CONTACT INFORMATION

• Web Http/ccp.ucla.edu
• E-mail cole_at_ucla.edu or
  Internet_at_ucla.edu
• Phone [phone]