Economic Subject Matter Meetings

1
Economic Subject Matter Meetings
October 2002
Macroeconomic and Agricultural Situation and
Outlook
2
Macro Economic Review of 2002

• Recession Ends-Led by Consumer Spending
• Inflation Moderate
• 6 Trillion Wealth lost in Stock market
• Business Confidence Weak
• Some Interest Rates Fall to 40 Year Lows
• Trade Deficit Large
• 9/11/01 and War on Terrorism

3
Real Gross Domestic Product1970-2002
Source Bureau Economic Analysis
4
Consumer Price Index1985-2002
Percent
Source Bureau Labor Statistics
5
Long Term vs Short TermInterest RatesU.S.
1977-2002
Percent
30 Year Bond
3 Month Treasury
Source Federal Reserve
6
U.S. Unemployment RateAnnual, 1970-2002
Percent
Year
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
7
U.S. Goods and Services Trade Balance, 1975-2002
Billions
Source Bureau Economic Analysis
8
U.S. Budget Deficit/Surplus1970-2002 FY
Billions
Source Congressional Budget Office
9
U.S. Macro Economic Outlook 2002Compared to 2003

• GDP 3.5
• Inflation 1.7
• Unemployment 5.8
• Interest Rates Down

• GDP 2.75
• Inflation 2.2
• Unemployment 5.6
• Interest Rates Upside Risk

10
U.S. Agriculture Gross Cash Income
11
U.S. Net Farm Income
12
Kentucky Revenue and Expenses
13
Kentucky Net Farm Income
14
U.S. Direct Government Payments
15
Kentucky Direct Government Payments
16
Kentuckys Cash Receipts
17
U.S. Farm Sector Production Expenses
18
U.S. Farm Debt 1970 to 2002
19
Debt and Equity for Kentucky
20
Agricultural Trade Situation and Forecast
21
This presentation was presented with the
Agricultural Situation and Outlook, Fall 2002,
publication number ESM-28, published by the
Department of Agricultural Economics at the
University of Kentucky with an additional
contribution from Kentucky State University in
October 2002. The entire publication can be
accessed on the WWW at http//www.uky.edu/Ag/AgEco
n/publications/esm_28.pdf.   This article
presents information on the economic situation
and outlook for Kentucky agriculture and is
intended to assist farmers, agribusiness
professionals, Extension filed staff, and others
with interest in agriculture and agribusiness.
Information presented here is based on the most
recent information and research available.
However, the rapidly changing economic and policy
conditions for agriculture limit the usefulness
and life span of conclusions and recommendations
cited here. Decision makers should keep these
facts in mind. Feel free to use the information
included in this publication for other uses, but
please provide professional citation about the
source. This paper is published without formal
review and the views expressed are those of the
authors and do not necessarily reflect the views
of the University of Kentucky, the Agricultural
Experiment Station, or the Cooperative Extension
Service.   If you need additional information
or if you would like to provide comments or
suggestions about this slideshow, please contact
Gregg Ibendahl at gibendah_at_uky.edu or Larry Jones
at ljones_at_uky.edu.
University of Kentucky, Department of
Agricultural Economics 400 Charles E. Barnhart
Bldg., Lexington, KY 40546-0276  Phone
859-257-5762, Fax [phone] URL
http//www.uky.edu/Ag/AgEcon/