Biofuels The next Generation in Sustainable Fuel

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Biofuels The next Generation in Sustainable
Fuel?

• LUFPIG GLOBE Conference on Biofuels
• European Parliament, 6 March 2007
• Ian Midgley
• Chief Supply Chain Officer

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(No Transcript)
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A growing world population will lead to a growing
demand for food
Population (in billions)
World Population (in billions)
2006 6.6 billion
2000 6.1 billion
less developedcountries
more developed countries
Source United Nations, 2004 World Population to
2300
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Two thirds of EU 25 rape oil consumption is for
Biofuels already today
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Rising need for import of oils fats in EU-25 -
already a reality today
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Impact of Biofuel in EU Competition for land
Sustainability?

• INSUFFICIENT
• SET ASIDE LAND
• TO COVER
• BIO-FUEL
• DEMAND IN 2010
• Based on a
• 5,75 target

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RAPE
RAPE
LAND USAGE calculation to achieve 5,75 target
(mio ha) 4,6 New Demand Bio-ethanol 9,0
New Demand Bio-Diesel 13,6 2010 New
Requirements
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Price for rape and sun flower on record heights
already a reality today
Rapeseed Oil
Sunflower Oil
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Shrinking world wheat stocks- already a reality
today
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Bandwidth in efficiency of land usage
Acreage requirement per ton of CO2 reduction
ha / t GHG
0,6
GOOD
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
Poplar
RME
Reed
RME
Bioethanol
Reed
Poplar
(Sugar Cane)
(Rape oil based Biofuel)
(sugar cane based Biofuel )
Bio-mass
Source Calculations based on Schmitz 2005,
Kaltschmitt 2002, IEA 2004
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High cost of reduced greenhouse gas emissions for
the European route
Cost of greenhouse gas reduction for selected
Biofuels
/ t GHG
350
GOOD
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Bio-ethanol
RME
Bio-ethanol
-50
(EU Sugar beet, wheat, corn)
(Brazil Sugar cane)
(Rape seed bio-fuel)
Source Turley 2003 Schmitz 2005 IEA 2004
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Vegetable oils are no solution to reduce
dependency on mineral oil
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Conclusion

• Mandatory targets for Biofuels
• Unlikely to deliver a meaningful reduction in
  GHG-emissions
• Very low impact on overall energy security
• Puts energy on an economic collision course with
  food/feed destabilising critical markets

• Proposals
• Continuing emphasis on energy savings programmes
• Flexibility in EU policy, careful monitoring of
  impact on key markets
• Further research on sustainability, land and GHG
  balance
• Accelerate research into 2nd generation
  technologies
• Prioritise power, heating and cooling
  applications over transport