Extrem Forecast Index

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Extrem Forecast Index

• Pierre Eckert
• Daniel Cattani
• MétéoSuisse

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• EFI definition
• Scores and verification
• Precipitations
• Wind gust
• Conclusion

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An Extreme Forecast Index

• Takes values from 1 (all members break climate
  minimum records) and 1 (all beyond climate
  maximum records)
• For a single value (e.g. deterministic) forecast
  with climate rank Q EFI3(Q-50) 14(Q-50)2
• Q95, EFI30.81
• Q98, EFI30.92
• Q99, EFI30.96

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Verification parameters (1)

• Precipitations (nov.2001-apr.2003)
• Predictands 2nd max prec. / 24h of
  climatological regions (W, E, S)
• Predictors EFI max over regions

• Thresholds
• 10 mm/24h
• 20 mm/24h
• 50 mm/24h

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Verification parameters (2)

• Gusts (nov.2001-apr.2003)
• Predictands 2nd max gust / 24h of climatological
  regions (W, E )
• Predictors
• EFI max over regions
• EFI max over all the domain (45-48.5N 5-11.5E)
  

• Thresholds
• 50 km/h
• 75 km/h
• 100 km/h

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Verification scores

• Forecasted EFI gt given value
• Hit Rate A / (AC)
• FAR B / (AB)

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Precipitations Switzerland West
Hit 0,5 EFI 0,3 T66h EFI 0,2 T90h EFI
0,2 T114
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Precipitations Switzerland West
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Precipitations Switzerland West
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Precipitations Switzerland South
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Precipitations Switzerland South
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Precipitations Switzerland South
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Gusts Switzerland West
50km/h
75km/h
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Gusts Switzerland West
50km/h
75km/h
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Gusts Switzerland West
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Gusts Switzerland West (ref region)
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Conclusion precipitations
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Conclusion Gusts