Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

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Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

• Lecture 17
• Sociology SOCI 20182

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Population Policy
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Recent UN Report

• World Population Policies 2007
• Based on official views regarding population
  processes and policies in 195 countries
  world-wide
• Considers evolution of population policies in
  1976-2006

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Major concerns on population issues

• 90 countries are concerned with spread of HIV
  infection (93 developing countries and 81
  developed countries)
• 73 countries are concerned with high infant
  mortality
• 70 countries are concerned with high maternal
  mortality
• 81 developed countries are concerned with
  population aging (55 all countries)

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Major concerns of the developed world

• HIV/AIDS 81
• Population aging 81
• Low fertility 61
• Size of the population of working age 61

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Government Views on Population Growth
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Population policies related to population growth
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Russian Government Views and Policies on
Population Growth
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Population growth - conclusions

• Now more developed countries are concerned with
  low population growth
• Proportion of developed countries with policies
  to modify their population growth increased
  (from 23 in 1996 to 37 in 2007)

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Population aging

• In 2007, 55 countries were concerned by the
  consequences of population aging
• Population aging is the second concern (after
  HIV) for the governments of developed countries

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Government concern about population aging in 2007
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Government concern about the size of the labor
force population, 2007
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Russian Government

• No data for 1996
• In 2007, major concern about population aging and
  size of the working-age population

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Population policies to alleviate the consequences
of population aging

• In 2002-2006 pension age was increased in 41 out
  of 164 countries
• The age of retirement providing a right for a
  full pension is 60 years for men in 60
  countries. The same age for women in 40
  countries
• However half of men in the European Union retire
  at age 61.5 years and half of women retire before
  age 60

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Fertility (polarization of views)

• Proportion of countries satisfied with their
  level of fertility declined from 53 in 1976 to
  35 in 2007
• Proportion of the least developed countries
  concerned with high level of fertility increased
  from 31 in 1976 to 90 in 2007
• Proportion of developed countries concerned with
  too low level of fertility increased from 21 in
  1976 to 61 in 2007

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Government policies on the level of fertility
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Government policies on the level of fertility
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Population policies implemented in developed
countries to increase fertility

• Child support payments
• Family support payments
• Maternity leave and leave for child care
• Medical subsidies for child care
• Tax benefits
• Housing subsidies
• Flexible work schedule for parents with children

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Governments providing direct support to
facilitate access to modern contraceptive methods
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Policies on availability of modern contraception
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Government concern about teenage births
Concerns predominantly countries of America
(South and North) and Africa
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Russian Government Views and Policies
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New measures to stimulate fertility in Russia
(effective January 1, 2007)

• increase in payments to mothers with children
  younger than 1.5 years
• Doubling the support level, and broader
  outreach, not just extremely poor

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New measures to stimulate fertility in Russia (2)

• maternal (family) capital 
• (financial certificate for mothers with 2
  children and more)
• subsidized mortgages for families with 2
  children, child education, pension, etc.,
  (250,000 rubles, about 10,000)

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New Measures to stimulate fertility in Russia (3)

• subsidized pre-school child care
• 20 subsidy for one child
• 50 for two children
• 70 for 3 and more children

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New measures to stimulate fertility in Russia (4)

• financial support to persons and families, who
  adopted an orphaned or abandoned child
• Shift to in-family care as opposed to
  institutionalized care
• 3 times raise in benefits4,000 rubles
  per month for child, and 2,500 rubles per month
  for parenting job

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Mortality and Health

• Proportion of countries satisfied with their
  level of mortality increased (due to decreased
  concerns in developing countries)

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Proportion of countries concerned with their
level of mortality
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Proportion of countries concerned with their
level of child mortality
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Government concerns about HIV spread
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Distribution of countries according to the
measures to respond to HIV/AIDS epidemics
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Russian Government Views and Policies
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Population spatial distribution

• Urbanization. In 1950-2005 urban population
  increased more than 4 times
• Initially population excess in rural areas,
  migration to cities
• Finally overcrowding of urban areas,
  particularly in large urban agglomerations

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Government concern about population spatial
distribution
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Government policies related to internal
migration, 2007
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Government policies regarding migration to urban
agglomerations
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Russian Government Views on Internal Migration

• 1996. Views on spatial distribution Major
  change desired to make population spatial
  distribution more even
• 2007. Views on spatial distribution Major
  change desired to make population spatial
  distribution more even

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Immigration

• Significant changes in attitudes to immigration
  compared to the 1990s
• In 1996, 33 of developed countries considered
  the level of immigration too high. Only 6 in
  2007.
• In 2007, 10 of developed countries considered
  the level of immigration too low.
• Shift to less restrictive immigration policy

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Government views on the level of immigration
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Government policy related to different types of
migration, 2007
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Russian Government Views and Policies
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Emigration

• Growing number of countries consider their level
  of emigration as too high
• 13 in 1976
• 29 in 2007
• However, some developing countries with young
  population and high unemployment rate promote
  emigration (Vietnam, Philippines)

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Government views on emigration
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Government policies on emigration
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Russian Government Views and Policies
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Russian President on Demographic Situation in
Russia(Address to Russian Parliament, May 10,
2006)

• Demographic problem is "the most urgent problem
  of modern Russia"
• Demographic situation is "critical"
• "We talked at lot on this topic but did little."
• Government is "too slow with unacceptable
  bureaucracy in resolving the problem"
• Suggested 10 year program with three priorities
• -- to decrease mortality
• -- effective migration policy
• -- to increase fertility

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Russian President on How to Decrease
Mortality(Address to Russian Parliament, May 10,
2006)

• Program to prevent traffic accidents and improve
  road safety
• To eradicate production and import of alcohol
  surrogates (poisoned alcohol)
• National Project "Health" focused on prevention
  and treatment of cardiovascular diseases, and
  other major causes of death.
• Comment
• No direct mentioning of alcoholism problem (by
  "pure", not poisoned alcohol)
• No direct mentioning of smoking problem

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Russian President on Priorities in Migration
Policy(Address to Russian Parliament, May 10,
2006)

• Returning back Russian compatriots from abroad
  (repatriation)
• Preferences should be given to educated
  immigrants without criminal record
• Immigrants should respect Russian culture and
  traditions (Russian language?)
• Comment
• Not much is done yet to enforce these wishes

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June 2, 2008 Exam

• Eight multiple-choice questions
• Questions do not extend beyond the lectures

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Requirements

• General understanding of demographic indicators
  (fertility, marriage, mortality, population
  aging) their pros and cons. No need to
  memorize exact formulas.
• Knowledge of major trends in population growth,
  fertility/reproductive health, mortality,
  migration and population aging during the
  transition period (1990-2000) in Russia.
• New trends during the last 5-7 years (2001-2007)
  in Russia.
• Major factors affecting fertility, mortality and
  population aging in Russia
• Understanding population pyramids