Timeinvarying Covariates of Successive Births in Pakistan

1
Time-invarying Covariates of Successive Births in
Pakistan

• Ali Muhammad
• Ph.D. Candidate
• Department of Sociology
• University of Western Ontario
• London, Ontario
• Email amuhamma_at_uwo.ca
• Webpage http//beatific.topcities.com/Muhammad/Ali
  .html

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TFR Trends Pakistan, 1962-2002
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Objective of the study

• To estimate the hazards of having 1st, 2nd, 3rd,
  4th and 5th births with different attributes of
  women.

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Data

• MIMAP (The Micro Impact of Macro Adjustment
  Policies) 2001
• Sample Size 4003 Households
• Women Interviewed (15-49) 4500
• Eligible Women 3349

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Methodology

• Cox Regression
• Five models are estimated separately for each
  parity to examine the affect of different
  covariates.

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Covariates

• Birth Cohorts (Younger born before 1968 and
  older after 68),
• Age at first marriage (lt 16, 16-19 and 20),
• Province of Residence (Punjab, Sindh, NWFP,
  Baluchistan)
• Type of Residence (Urban/ Rural),
• Education of mother (No schooling, 8 years, 9
  years),
• Employment status of mother (Working, Not
  working),
• Sex of surviving children,
• Participation in Household Decision-making,
• Family Planning Discussion with Husband,
• Can Go Out in Need and
• Life Satisfaction.

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Results Birth cohorts




Reference Younger Cohort, Significant at
lt0.001
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Age at first marriage
All coefficients are significant at lt 0.001,
Reference lt 16 years
9
Provinces and type of residence
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Socio-economic variables
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Sex of children
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Survival status of previous child
All coefficients are significant at lt0.001
13
Womens autonomy variables
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Conclusion

• What does make difference?
• Higher age at first marriage,
• Higher level of education,
• Sex of children,
• Survival status of previous child,
• Participation in household decision-making and
• Family planning discussion with husband.

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Policy Recommendations

• Increase in age at first marriage by
• Increasing the opportunities for womens access
  to higher education and employment,
• Educating women to realize that either sex is
  better,
• Providing better health facilities to reduce the
  incidences of infant and child mortality,
• Encouraging women to participate in household
  decision-making as well as
• Making them able to discuss their FP matters with
  their husbands.

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Thanks