Comment: On Making Statistics Valuable to the Public

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Comment On Making Statistics Valuable to the
Public

• Theodore M. Porter
• Professor, History of Science
• Department of History, UCLA
• tporter_at_history.ucla.edu

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The birth of statistics

• Numerical records are as old as writing.
  Censuses and government accounts go back to
  ancient times.
• The origin of statistics, around 1800, came with
  ambitions to make a science of the state, of
  statecraft
• And with an ideal of public knowledge. Census
  records were no longer secrets of state.

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The science of statistics

• Statistics was at first a social science and not
  a mathematical one.
• It was championed by people who hoped the numbers
  could speak for themselves.
• And would quickly identify the causes of social
  problems such as crime, suicide, and epidemic
  disease.

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Pierre Charles Dupins cartogram of
illiteracy (1819)
Thanks to Michael Friendly www.math.yorku.ca/SCS/
gallery/
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Guerry and Balbi use statistical maps to try to
establish connection between instruction and
crime (1829)
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Ambitions for statistics
Adolphe Quetelet (1796-1874) wanted statistics to
be an experimental science of legislation.
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The power of statistics

• A well made statistic is an impassible
  testimony, above intimidation and seduction
  alike (Michel Chevalier, 1860)
• Wherever the struggle resurfaces between the
  champions of the general interest and that of
  private interest, you will find (statisticians)
  at our post, armed and ready to march. (Alfred
  de Foville, 1892)

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How powerful are statistics really?

• But (Foville added) the governments never listen
  
• And it seemed that the message of statistics was
  often not so straightforward as statisticians had
  hoped. The charts showed no simple relationship
  between instruction and crime, for example.

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Statistics and Information

• The question of public knowledge of statistics
  presumes that statistics are a form of
  information.
• The idea of information, argues Yaron Ezrahi,
  usually assumes that the facts (numbers) are
  self-explanatory, readily available for direct
  use by anyone.
• Are statistics really transparent? Are their
  meanings superficially evident?

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The Public and Science

• From public understanding of science to public
  engagement with science.
• A scientific spirit may be more important than
  knowledge of particular facts.
• Often (notably in the US) members of the public
  reject what they know to be accepted science
  (e.g. evolution).

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Public knowledge of statistics

• One of the papers regrets that the public is
  ignorant of basic numbers (population of Italy,
  euro/dollar exchange rate, trends of CO2
  emissions, etc.)
• The other takes the economists view that people
  will know whats in their interest to know, based
  on costs and benefits to them.

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What good is knowledge of statistics?

• It may be less a matter of private advantage than
  a public good.
• We might hope citizens will know more than
  private interest dictates.
• What numbers are important for the public? How do
  they (we) determine which numbers are important?
• Is it good that they think of numbers as
  straightforward information?

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A little knowledge could be a dangerous thing

• Numbers circulate widely during elections. They
  also are manipulated in various ways.
• Hypothetically, a president or prime minister
  might take measures to improve some number in the
  short term (just before an election) knowing
  quite well that this will create problems in the
  longer term.

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Statistics that matter

• The misery index became famous in the
  Reagan-Bush1 years. This table is meant to
  defend Bush2. Should it be taken seriously?

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Its good if the public knows more about
statistics

• But it may be just as important for them to learn
  to take numbers with a grain of salt
• And to know as much as possible about what the
  statisics mean.

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Thank you