General Fertility Rates by Utah's 61 Small Areas, 20032005

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General Fertility Rates by Utah's 61 Small Areas,
2003-2005
U.S. GFR 67 Utah GFR 90
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SALT LAKE CITY
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SALT LAKE CITY
CEDAR VALLEY
LEHI
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Modernization trends
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Measurement scheme
DV Permanent contraceptive use.
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Lowest-low fertility
Source CIA World Factbook, 2006
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Factors behind lowest-low

• Distortions in period fertility measures
• Period measures lower than cohort
• Whats wrong with TFR?

Tony Randall, Birth parent at 77, 78
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Factors behind lowest-low

• Rational decisions to postpone fertility
• When is it wrong to reproduce?
• Education, employment, housing

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Factors behind lowest-low

• Social interaction
• Faster response through social learning?
• Delayed marriage means more/better partners later
• Competing for jobs by delaying parenthood
• Postponement-quantum interactions
• When motherhood and work are not compatible

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Once it starts, it accelerates.
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1994 Data Wife-always husband aways Batalova
Cohen 2002
2002 Data Time spent on housework Fuwa Cohen
2006