A National Multi-Hazards Warning System for Sri Lanka

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A National Multi-Hazards Warning System for Sri
Lanka

• Rohan Samarajiva, LIRNEasia
• Malathy Knight-John, LIRNEasia and Institute of
  Policy Studies
• Ceylon Chamber of Commerce
• 17 February 2005

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Imagine . . .

• Another tsunami coming to Sri Lanka in 2016 . . .
  
• A 24-hours/day, 365 days/year national
  multi-hazards warning center gets the alert from
  the international system
• A warning is issued within 9 minutes to emergency
  services, district administrative authorities,
  hotel groups, telecom operators, etc.
• When the waves hit within 90 minutes, evacuation
  was complete
• Casualties amounted to 300

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Background

• Desperate need for warning system
• First contact of tsunami at around 0836 hrs Sri
  Lanka time in vicinity of Kalmunai
• Waves kept hitting points further north and south
  (and then the West Coast) over the next 3 hours
• No warning of tsunami based on seismic or tsunami
  warnings
• No warning based on what happened on the East
  Coast
• Hawaii changed their entire disaster warning/
  response system because 61 people died in the
  1960 tsunami
• We lost around 40,000 . . . .

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Consultative, participatory process

• International input
• International disaster communications expert
• Expert referees, including those at news
  conference
• Local input
• Local team Samarajiva, Malathy Knight-John,
  Ayesha Zainudeen, assisted by others
• Expert consultation January 26th 2005
• Alumni of Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre
• Those who responded to the advertisement
• Web comments, including on discussion document
• Video news conference on 10th of February
• Ceylon Chamber of Commerce event on 17th of
  February

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Public Warning as component of a Risk Management
System
Focus of this concept paper
Education
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What is not included

• Hazard detection monitoring systems, e.g.,
• Indian Ocean tsunami warning system, including
  seismometers and deep-sea tsunami sensors
• Cyclone detection and monitoring system
• Emergency response functions
• Police and other agencies responsible for
  evacuation, etc.
• Disaster awareness and education

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Why?

• Accept that first-best solution is an integrated
  comprehensive risk management system
• But, in an environment of all talk, little
  action, best approach is to focus on critical
  component and fix it
• Chose public warning because it is important,
  low-cost and solvable, though few are paying
  attention to it and because we have expertise
• Our model ? http//www.partnershipforpublicwarning
  .org/ppw/docs/11_25_2002report.pdf

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Key excerpt

• Bringing diverse warning resources together and
  focusing on a unified all-hazard warning system
  will improve the effectiveness of all warnings
  significantly. More people at risk will be
  warned. Improved warning systems and procedures
  will clearly save significant numbers of lives
  every year, will reduce losses from natural and
  man-made disasters, and will speed recovery.
  Building and operating a unified all-hazard
  public warning system is beyond the capability of
  any local community, state, federal agency, or
  industry. It requires the cooperation of all
  these groups to work effectively together in
  partnership.

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Effective Public Warning (I)

• Rationale
• Human, Economic, Social and Political
• Prerequisites
• Education and awareness raising
• Planning
• Testing and assessment

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Effective Public Warning (II)

• Parameters
• For ALL-hazards
• Linked to regional and global systems
• Ubiquitous and accessible warnings
• Credibility of warning
• Large role for Public-private partnerships
• Dissemination via existing and emerging private
  networks as well as media
• ?Role for telecom and broadcasting industries
• Key role played by private sector firms in the
  dissemination chain

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Why multi-hazard system in Sri Lanka?

• Statement at expert consultation Sri Lankans
  are good at installing but not at maintaining
• Problem is more about systems than technologies
  (though technologies matter)
• Have to keep systems in perfect operational
  order, though they are used infrequently
• Best method is to have a multi-hazard system that
  will be used more frequently than a single-hazard
  system
• We can concentrate the best people in one place
  for the task
• Cheaper

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A National All-Hazards Warning System

• Public warning is
• A public good not supplied by market
• CORE BUSINESS OF GOVERNMENT
• Two options
• Government supply PLAN A
• Variant Government delegates task to
  non-government entity
• Public good is bundled with private goods,
  supplied by private sector PLAN B

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PLAN A The Island of Good Governance

• Government supplies warnings, funded through
  taxation
• Design elements and safeguards to ensure high
  performance provisions for
• deployment of proper expertise and equipment,
• adequate levels of funding,
• insulation from day-to-day political
  interference, and
• transparency and accountability (necessary
  safeguards in light of substantial independence
  given)
• Will require large effort and time in order to
  get it right

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Plan A, Variant

• In Bangladesh, the Red Crescent Society operates
  the cyclone warning system
• Government provides some funds and meteorological
  data
• Tightly integrated to community based awareness
  and shelter programs
• Many lives have been saved

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PLAN B Private Sector Takes Action

• Private sector establishes warning systems
• Likely to take the lead
• Insurance
• Tourism
• Can complement national system when it comes into
  being
• Requires government support (indemnification,
  access to hazard information, etc.), especially
  if extending outside employees and guests to
  adjacent communities

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PLAN B Private Sector Takes Action

• Private sector supplies warnings
• Unlikely that a national all-hazard system will
  emerge
• E.g., coastal hotels will cooperate on a tsunami
  and cyclone warning system while interior hotels
  will focus on other hazards
• This is second or third best solution something
  is better than nothing for now

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Action

• Immediate
• Localized and partial efforts focused on hazards
  relevant to specific industries/entities can be
  implemented
• Education and awareness raising
• Medium-term (six months from now)
• Nationwide ALL-hazards warning system needs to be
  carefully designed and diligently implemented
• Perhaps with contributions from the ground-up
  systems

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Key points

• Urgent need for effective system to convey
  information on hazards to all citizens, visitors
  and organizations
• Systems, not limited to technology
• System should be at national level, with links to
  regional/international systems
• It should convey authoritative watches and
  warnings to the media, emergency response
  authorities, and relevant others
• It should be a multi-hazards center, with best
  possible governance and independence
• May be complemented by industry-run warning
  systems

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Interim Concept Paper ( some comments) available
at www.lirneasia.net www.vanguardfoundationlanka
.org

• Open for comments until February 19th 2005
• Finalization and submission by February 26th 2005