Circum-Arctic Petroleum Resource Appraisal: Assessment in Circumstances of Extreme Uncertainty

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Circum-Arctic Petroleum Resource Appraisal
Assessment in Circumstances of Extreme Uncertainty

• USGS IPY 2007-2008 Kickoff Event
• March 30, 2007
• Brenda Pierce, USGS Energy Resources Program

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from L.P. White, R.S. Bishop and D.L. Gautier,
2005
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GOALS FOR THE CIRCUM-ARCTIC RESOURCE APPRAISAL
What is the potential for additions to petroleum
reserves from the Arctic?

• Comprehensive (portfolio effect)
• Full range of uncertainty
• Objective and unbiased
• Transparent and reproducible
• Compatible with our previous work
• Results in a cost/supply context

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ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES ARE LIMITED IN UNEXPLORED
BASINS

• Discovery History Analysis
• Prospect counting
• Reservoir modeling
• Geologic synthesis
• Analog modeling

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Science in Support of the CARA

• New Map of Arctic Sedimentary Prisms
• Classification of Arctic Petroleum Systems
• Basin Evolution Chart
• Analog Database
• Analog Assessment Methodology
• Full-cycle Resource Analysis Model

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Cooperating Organizations

• Minerals Management Service
• Geological Survey of Canada
• Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland
• Norwegian Petroleum Directorate
• Individual Russian Scientists
• Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe
• Members of the World Energy Consortium

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INTEGRATED EVALUATION ALGORITHM
DEFINE ASSESSMENT UNITS
DEVELOP BACKGROUND INFORMATION
GEOLOGIC ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT
VOLUME FLOW ASSESSMENT
FULL CYCLE SIMULATION
DEVELOP ANALOG APPROACH
DEVELOP ANALOG MODELS FOR VOLUME FLOW
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NE GREENLAND

• SIGNIFICANT
• Geologic uncertainty
• Technical uncertainty
• Economic uncertainty

Category 3 sparse seismic, no wells
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North Danmarkshavn Salt Basin
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Thank you