Lew Fulton lew'fultonunep'org

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BAQ 2006 Yogyakarta, 13-15 December 2006
GHG Reduction and Transport in Developing Nations
Lew Fulton (lew.fulton_at_unep.org) UN Environment
Program Nairobi Kenya
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Role of UNEP

• United Nations Environment Program plays a
  leading role in supporting and promoting
  environmental protection world-wide
• UNEP is very involved with other agencies in
  multi-attribute assessments
• Environmental
• Energy
• Economic
• Social
• Political (policy)
• UNEP has a variety of projects and programmes
  relating to urban environment and its various
  linkages with these other concerns
• DTIE (Division of Technology, Industry and
  Energy)
• PCFV (Partnership for clean fuels and vehicles)
• DGEF (Division of GEF coordination)
• WWW.UNEP.ORG

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What is the GEF?

• Global Environment Facility, Established in 1991
• Helps developing countries fund projects and
  programs that protect the global environment.
• GEF grants support projects related to
  biodiversity, climate change, international
  waters, land degradation, the ozone layer, and
  persistent organic pollutants.
• UNEP is an Implementing Agency for the GEF

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GEF Project Info

• Project Types
• Full-size projects (1 million and up)
• Medium-sized projects (up to 1 million)
• Small Grants Program (up to 50,000)
• Enabling activities
• Project Development Funds (PDF-A up to 25,000
  PDF-B up to 350,000)
• GEF Projects can be executed by
• Government Agencies
• UN Specialized Agencies
• Non-Governmental Organizations
• Bilateral Development Cooperation Agencies
• Others from the private sector/institutes

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The GEF and Transport

• OP-11 Sustainable Mobility
• Mode switching efforts
• Improved transit systems
• Promotion of non-motorized transit options
• Support for infrastructure design,
  operation/management systems
• Travel demand management, pricing
• Land use planning
• Limited fuel switching (e.g. electric vehicles,
  fuel cell vehicles)
• Probably NOT ELIGIBLE
• Anything related to private vehicles (efficiency
  programs)
• Biofuels (though under reconsideration)
• Pollutant emissions reduction efforts

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Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region
Source IEA World Energy Outlook 2004
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Projected Growth in Fuel Consumption By Sector
and Fuel, 2002-2030
East Asia
South Asia
China
Source IEA World Energy Outlook 2004 Notes
East Asia excludes China MTOE thousand
tonnes oil-equivalent note difference in scaling
of the Y axes.
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Pollutant v. GHG EmissionsA schematic of
potential impacts from different measures
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Vehicle / Fuel Measures

• Low-sulphur diesel
• requires a few percent more energy to refine,
  means higher GHG emissions
• Allows use of advanced technology filter systems,
  also may lower fuel economy
• Allows use of advanced diesel engine designs
  while still meeting emissions control regs, could
  provide large GHG reductions
• Vehicle Maintenance
• Basic maintenance (tire inflation, engine tuning)
  can provide a several percentage improvement in
  fuel efficiency, reduction in GHG emissions
• Inspection and Maintenance programs must target
  these aspects in order to provide GHG reduction
  benefits
• New vehicle fuel economy improvement
• Clear direct impact on fuel use, GHG reductions
• May provide some pollutant emissions benefit
  (e.g. HC) but mostly unrelated

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Lifecycle GHG emissions from light-duty vehicles
One Set of Estimates (Mark Delucchi) (g/mi
CO2-equivalent and changes)
Source Delucchi. 2003. LEM model. Based on 26
mpg gasoline baseline, year 2010 parameters.
ICEV internal combustion engine vehicle,
EVelectric vehicle, FCEVfuel cell vehicle
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Lifecycle GHG emissions from heavy-duty vehicles
One Set of Estimates (Mark Delucchi) (g/mi
CO2-equivalent and changes)
Source Delucchi. 2003. LEM model. Based on 26
mpg gasoline baseline, year 2010 parameters.
ICEV internal combustion engine vehicle,
EVelectric vehicle, FCEVfuel cell vehicle
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How transit systems reduce CO2 emissions

• Modal shift from smaller vehicles (minibuses,
  cars) to much more efficient larger vehicles
  (buses, trams, and other rail cars)
• Improved urban traffic flow can yield improved
  in-use efficiency for all vehicles
• For rail highly efficient electric trains
  provide reductions per vehicle km compared to
  even large buses
• For bus systems, especially Bus Rapid Transit
  (BRT)
• Dedicated bus corridors yield much faster speeds,
  smother operation better in-use efficiency
• Fewer, much larger buses can displace greater
  numbers of smaller buses, improving net
  efficiency
• Maybe the biggest one LONG TERM PLANNING
• Long-term planning around a transit system
  backbone allows a city to become much less
  vehicle dependent.
• Synergies with walking and cycling
• Changes in patterns of where people live, work
  and shop.
• Many cobenefits including air quality, safety,
  health, convenience

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BRT Systems

• Full BRT
• Segregated, median busways with median
  stations
• Pre-board fare collection and fare
  verification
• Restricted operator access (closed system)
• Free transfers between corridors
• Competitively bid concessions
• High frequency service and low station dwell
  times
• Clean bus technologies
• Modal integration

Bus Rapid Transit is a mass transit system that
mimics the rapidity and performance of metros
but utilises buses rather than rail vehicles.
Volvo
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Mass transit costs
Trams / Light rail US 10 30 million /
km Elevated rail US 50 100 million
Subways US 50 million 300 million / km
BRT US 1 5 million / km
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Some GHG Cost Reduction Scenarios Fuel Switching
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Some GHG Cost Reduction Scenarios Mode Switching
Source Wright and Fulton, 2005, Climate Change
and Transport in Developing Nations, Transport
Reviews. Note Estimates based on a city with 10
million trips per day mode shift assumptions
linked to size of investment, based on experience
in cities like Bogotá detailed assumptions
outlined in paper
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Conclusions

• Most transport air quality improvement options
  have some impact on GHG emissions, though often
  tangential
• Vehicle maintenance is promising, though IM
  systems must specifically target efficiency
• Transit systems, NMT infrastructure combined with
  spatial planning can substantially reduce all
  types of emissions
• For GHG reduction (and mobility improvements),
  BRT/NMT compares favorably to many
  technology/fuel switching options on a
  cost-per-tonne basis
• More info Lew.fulton_at_unep.org
• www.unep.org