Invasive Plant Early Detection: Pulling It All Together

1
Invasive Plant Early Detection Pulling It All
Together
SODN
NCPN
NCCN
CHDN
BIBE
HTLN
SHEN
KLMN
GLKN
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Discussion Points

• Emphasize the importance of early detection
• Key elements for early detection monitoring
• Highlight key projects products
• Early detection handbook
• Time frame for completion

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Why Early Detection?

• Professional Eradication Success
• Successful if lt 1 ha
• 1/3 successful if 1 ha to 100ha
• ¼ successful if 101 ha to 1000 ha
• gt 1000 ha unlikely success.
• (Rejmanek and Pitcairn 2002)
• Monitoring necessary in all cases.
• (Zaveleta 2002)

• Other Considerations
• Size of the seed bank
• Life history attributes
• Dispersal modes
• Presence of efficient vectors of spread.

4
What are the Key Steps to an Early Detection
Protocol?
Priority Assessment
Predict Risk of Occurrence
Sampling/ Survey Design
Model Evaluation/ Field Testing
5
What are the Key Steps to an Early Detection
Protocol?
Priority Assessment
Predict Risk of Occurrence
Sampling/ Survey Design
Develop Rapid Response System
Model Evaluation/ Field Testing
Data Management Reporting
6
What are the Key Steps to an Early Detection
Protocol?
Priority Assessment
Define Monitoring Objectives
Predict Risk of Occurrence
Sampling/ Survey Design
Develop Rapid Response System
Model Evaluation/ Field Testing
Data Management Reporting
7
What are the Key Steps to an Early Detection
Protocol?
Priority Assessment
Define Monitoring Objectives
Predict Risk of Occurrence

• Specific quantifiable
• Specific to tasks
• Clearly defined variables measurements
• Specific evaluation measures (thresholds)
• Communicate justify project

Sampling/ Survey Design
Model Evaluation/ Field Testing
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PrioritizationBrooks and Klinger - KLMN

• Key Points
• Stresses early detection
• Three scales
• Within parks
• Adjacent to parks
• Ecoregion (WWF)
• Three stages of invasion
• Hierarchical approach
• Incorporates uncertainty
• Site and species traits
• Provides alternatives

• Products and Timeframe
• Practical procedure
• Prioritization for KLMN
• (stage-specific)
• Integrate with KLMN modeling
• Review of 19 existing tools
• REDW and WHIS by FY07

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Modeling Invasive Plant Species Edwards et al. -
KLMN

• Key Points
• Model likely locations
• Assess suitability of the predicted locations for
  invasive establishment
• Assess via field validation
• Develop sampling designs for NPS management

• Products and Timeframe
• Lava Beds tests completed
• Four identified invasives modeled
• Sampling schema will be proposed, based on Park
  resources, for implementation this spring /
  summer
• Additional statistical models will be evaluated
  (e.g., Random Forests, GLMs variants, GAMs)
• Next park is ?

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Modeling Invasive Plant Species Edwards et al. -
KLMN

• Step 1 Spatial model
• Classification models based on presence absence
  data
• Translate to spatial representations for each
  park
• Step 2 Non-spatial model
• Determine ecological attributes of micro-sites
  for invasive establishment
• Step 3 Field Assessment

Edwards, Cutler Beard, NPS Monitoring Meeting,
San Diego, CA Feb 2006
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GIS-based Adaptive Sampling Smith et al. - SHEN

• Key Points
• Condition triggers adaptive sampling
• Measure of habitat or risk of occurrence
• Uses GIS prior to sampling
• Final sample size is known prior to field
  sampling
• Effectiveness gt standard adaptive sampling or
  sampling proportional to habitat

• Products and Timeframe
• User-friendly software program (SAMPLE)
• Generate populations
• Analyze existing survey data
• Simulate sampling options
• Generate reports
• Models specific to SHEN
• Completion - Summer 2006

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Example Capabilities of SAMPLE
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Other Pertinent Research

• Prevention
• Loope et al. (PACN)nursery surveys and roads and
  trails external to parks
• Jacobi et al. (PACN)in parks and mile buffer
• Early Detection
• Brooks et al. (NCPN) site-based approach
• Jones et al. (NCCN) 7 model comparison
• Storer et al. (GLKN) modeling 10 species

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Pulling It All Together

• USGS-NPS Project Integration
• Invasive Plant Early Detection Handbook

• Methods
• Twice-monthly conference calls
• Writing assignments
• Revisions
• Workshop
• Peer review NPS and others
• Revision
• Dissemination
• Training

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Early Detection HandbookCooperating Authors

• Products
• Detailed procedures
• Assumptions, limitations, scales
• Modular format
• Protocol template flexible framework with
  examples
• Living document
• Published (e.g., Island Press, Natural Areas)

• Timeframe
• Final handbook - January 2007
• Draft handbook September 2006 (functional)
• Peer review ongoing
• Detailed, site-specific protocols
• added as completed

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A Handbook?

• Should I wait for this handbook?
• What if were already developing a protocol?
• Do I have to use the whole handbook?
• Is field testing associated with these projects?
• Do I have to adapt the protocol(s) to suit my
  needs?
• What can we do to prepare for using the handbook?

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Invasive Species Breakout

• Panel discussion
• Relevant experts
• Broader context
• Interface/ questions
• Individual meetings

Wednesday, 8 Feb 2006, 1.30 PM Main Ballroom,
Salon DE
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Thank You Paul Geissler Bob Dorazio Penny
Latham Daniel Sarr Matt Brooks Rob Klinger Tom
Edwards Richard Cutler Karen Beard Chad
Jones Charles Halpern David Smith Kendall Young
Andrew Storer Craig Young Lloyd Loope Jim
Jacobi Theresa Mau-Crimmins
Pen Y Fan
Parc Cenedlaethol Bannau Brycheiniog