Introducing Theories of Change

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Introducing Theories of Change

• Michael Drinkwater, PIKL
• Asia Program Quality Group Meeting
• Hanoi, March 2009

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A Programmatic Approach The Mind Shift

• It is difficult to shift our mindsets about our
  work, about what it should be about, and about
  the scope and scale we need to reach.
• Projects and even related sequences of projects
  are an answer to the question, What can CARE
  do? (even if there are contractual partnerships
  within the project).
• Programs when crafted correctly respond to a
  different question What is the change in
  society (impact) that we wish to catalyze?

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A Programmatic Approach The Mind Shift - 2

• A program is more about CARE articulating a
  picture and vision of social change one of
  course in line with government and MDG strategies
  that moves others to join forces with us (and
  us with them) to achieve something far beyond our
  sole ability to accomplish.
• It is about being both more AMBITIOUS and more
  REALISTIC than we are conventionally when working
  in projects.

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Definition of a Program
A program is a coherent set of initiatives by
CARE and our allies that involves a long term
commitment to specific marginalized and
vulnerable groups to achieve lasting impact at
broad scale on underlying causes of poverty and
social injustice. This goes beyond the scope of
projects to achieve positive changes in human
conditions, in social positions and in the
enabling environment.
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8 Characteristics of a Program

1. A clearly defined goal for impact on the lives of
   a specific group, realized at broad scale.
2. A thorough analysis of underlying causes of
   poverty, gender inequality, and social injustice
   at multiple levels with multiple stakeholders.
3. An explicit theory of change that is rigorously
   tested and adapted to reflect ongoing learning.
4. A coherent set of initiatives that enable CARE
   and our partners to contribute significantly to
   the transformation articulated in the theory of
   change.
5. Ability to promote organizational and social
   learning, to generate knowledge and evidence of
   impact.
6. Contribution to broad movements for social change
   through our work with and strengthening of
   partners, networks and alliances.
7. A strategy to leverage and influence the use and
   allocation of financial and other resources
   within society for maximizing change at a broader
   scale.
8. Accountability systems to internal and external
   stakeholders that are transparent.

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How are new programs different?

• Need to ensure that as COs reorganize their
  project portfolios into programs, that this is
  not simply a relabeling exercise (sectors now
  become programs)
• Importance of starting with clear identification
  of impact populations
• Distinction between impact population, target
  group and stakeholders

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Impact, Target, Sub Groups and Stakeholders
Health Bureau
Impact Group
Schools community
Brokers
Resource poor youth in urban and peri- urban
areas vulnerable to HIV AIDS
BOLSA
Youth associations, Women associations, Kebele
Administration
Rural-urban migrant CSWs
ACSI
Male and female youth living with HIV/AIDS
Unemployed youth (addicted)
Bureau of Youth Sports
Chat Bet/houses
Community at transit Woreda?
Women Association
Urban youth parents
Youth urban daily laborers
Urban Unemployed youth
Micro Finance Inst.
Hotel owners house renters
Ønp?
Youth Association
Like-minded LNGOS
Education Office
MSE?
Police
Micro enterprises
CBOS (Target Stakeholders)
Private sector (Industrialists)
MunicipalityPA
Microfinance institutions
Key Blue (Sub) Impact groups Yellow
Stakeholders Purple Target groups
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Long Term Impact Goal

• This is a 10-15 year ambition, and specifies the
  kind of enduring impact we would like to see
  being achieved in the lives of the impact
  population group, at broad scale
• When we start to build our strategy, the idea is
  that we should be both ambitious and realistic

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Why Theories of Change?

• Social change is a messy, complex affair, rather
  than a predictable, linear process
• But while social change is complex and
  incoherent, it is not unintelligible
• We have to be adaptive, iterative and non-linear
  we have to seize opportunities and learn what
  works and what doesnt work.

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Theory of Change Working Definition

• A set of hypotheses and critical assumptions that
  make up a causal pathway of change which is the
  basis of the program design.
• Hypotheses are if-then statements between
  different levels of the change pathway

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Theory of Change - 2
CARE Malawi Program Shift Impact Groups
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Change Pathways, and their Assumptions

• A path of change is like a road map but one
  where we have an idea of the destination, but
  will have to experiment to find an effective
  route of getting there
• The change pathway(s) laid out for achieving our
  long-term impact goal has to be hypothetical
  because it is based on assumptions
• It gives us a hypothetical answer to the
  question what is the change we are working for
  and what needs (beliefs, activities, approaches)
  to happen for the change to come about?
• It serves as a planning and reflection tool and
  should be regularly reviewed and adjusted
  (testing the assumptions, measuring breakthroughs
  and re-examining the pace of change)

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Domains of Change

• Are areas in which change is essential to
  achieving an impact goal.
• A goal may have 2-4 domains of change
• A domain of change may be
• a relationship between groups of people
• behavior and/or structural change in a system or
  institutions
• Laws and policies related to a specific issue
• Represent all three outcome areas of the Unifying
  Framework

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Breakthrough

• A change that represents a leap forward or an
  advance on the pathway of change that is not
  easily reversed.
• In its most important form, it is a structural or
  systemic change. On a smaller scale, it can be
  something that happens for the first time

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Bangladesh TOC Womens Empowerment - 1

• Narrative Form
• The most socially economically, politically
  marginalized women will be empowered by womens
  greater exercise of choice in decision affecting
  their lives at all levels and reduced violence
  against women and girls. This, accompanied by a
  strong social movement built on womens
  solidarity and participation of men, will have a
  multiplier effect in realizing the impact vision

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Desired Long-term Goal (related to population
impact group)
2
5
Stakeholders
6
Indicators related to breakthroughs, domains, and
long-term goal
4
Pathways of change
Breakthrough
Assumptions and Risks
7
Breakthrough
Domain of change
Domain of Change
Domain of Change
3
Current Situation, including underlying
causes/barriers to change
1
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Power Within Theory of Change
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Bangladesh TOC Womens Empowerment - 2

• CARE Bangladesh Impact Statement on the most
  Socially, Economically and Politically
  Marginalized Women
• Women will be empowered by

Strong Social movements built on women's
solidarity and participation of men
Exercise of greater choice in decisions affecting
their lives
Reduced violence against women

X
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Bangladesh TOC Womens Empowerment - 3

• The sign signifies that the two domains are
  not necessarily inter-dependent but mutually
  supportive. The intent is to see a positive
  trendline in both, with one reinforcing the
  other.
• The strong social movements is a multiplier on
  the achievements of the two domains of change.
  Social movements will sustain and carry forward
  those achievements and will scale up the impact
  at national level. It is not enough for CARE
  Bangladesh to be satisfied with empowering a few
  women it must think about the next generation.
• The multiplier effect is also present in the
  pressure for structural change upon the
  institutions and norms that survive the cycles of
  repressive governments with the potential to help
  temper an unstable political environment.
• Finally, our SII research has shown us that
  solidarity building is crucial for womens
  empowerment.

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Theories of Change Summary

• A Theory of Change consists of a number of
  domains of change linked together in an
  hypothesis to achieve the impact goal
• It has also a set of change pathways, with
  identified breakthrough areas
• Together, the domains of change the pathways
  provide a plausible set of hypotheses and
  assumptions to address the major underlying
  causes/ barriers
• It need not be complex, but it must be logical
  and coherent

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From Theory of Change to Program Strategy

• In starting to develop the program strategy from
  the TOC, we move from nouns (in the change
  pathways) to verbs, from the things we wish to
  achieve to the activities and actions needed to
  achieve them
• In this, we need to weigh up risk carefully
• We start by look for the opportunities we can use
  as entry points to start the process
• And remember WE CANNOT DO THIS ALONE

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Methodology for Consultancy

• Understand analysis, impact population and impact
  goal
• Identify key program themes
• Construct pathways
• Identify breakthroughs
• Consolidate domains of change
• Identify stakeholders, key assumptions, and
  potential core impact indicators