Wildland Fire Use Analysis Using BurnPro

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Wildland Fire Use Analysis Using BurnPro
Christine Brown FOR 551 April 26, 2005
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Overview

• Background
• BurnPro
• Analyses
• BurnPro Results
• Management Implications

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Wilderness fire management and policy

• Clear legislative and policy direction to
  preserve natural conditions in wilderness
• Fuels manipulation and prescribed fire
  controversial
• Wildland Fire Use (WFU) a possible fuels
  management and restoration strategy
• As of 1998, only 88 of 596 designated wilderness
  areas allowed WFU
• Even most successful programs suppress many
  natural ignitions

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Wilderness fire management and policy
Fire suppression remains dominant fire management
strategy.
Comparison of NPS natural fire programs for
5-year periods before and after 1988. (Parsons
2000)
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How does BurnPro fit into Fire Management and
Policy?

• BurnPro is a tool that assists in the
  implementation of current fire policy through the
  planning process.

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Guiding Principles of Federal Wildland Fire
Management Policy

• Firefighter and public safety is the first
  priority in every fire management activity.
• The role of wildland fire as an essential
  ecological process and natural agent of change
  will be incorporated into the planning process.
• Fire management plans, programs, and activities
  support most land and resource management plans.
• Sound risk management is a foundation for all
  fire management activities.
• Fire management programs and activities are
  economically viable.
• Fire management plans are based on the best
  available science.
• Fire management plans incorporate public health
  and environmental quality considerations.
• Federal, state, tribal, and local interagency
  coordination and cooperation are essential.
• Standardization of policies and procedures among
  federal agencies is an ongoing objective.

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Fire Planning
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Initial Decision Analyses
Fire discovered
Yes
Lightning caused?
No
Yes
No immediate threat to life or property
No
Yes
No immediate threat to Wilderness boundary
No
2 HOURS
Yes
Wildfire, take appropriate suppression response
ERC acceptable?
No
Yes
Current and forecast fire behavior weather
acceptable?
No
Yes
Air quality acceptable?
No
Yes
Funding available to manage Prescribed Natural
Fire
No
Yes
Local, regional, national situation acceptable?
No
Yes
Prescribed Natural Fire in the Selway-Bitterroot
Wilderness (1990). Pyne et al.
Forest Supervisor or Designated Acting approval
to proceed?
No
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BurnPro

• Determines the average annual probability of
  burning for every pixel on the landscape
• Aimed to aid in long term fire management
  and planning processes
• Carol Miller and Brett Davis, Aldo Leopold
  Research Institute and USDA Forest Service Rocky
  Mountain Research Station, 2003.

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Probability of Burning Model (BurnPro) Overview

X
Miller and Davis 2004
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BurnPro to Estimate Probability of Burning
Considers ignitions, rate of fire spread, time
available for fire spread, and topography, all in
a spatial context

• BurnPro provides
• Average annual value (many events, many years)
• Value for every location on a raster map
• Continuous values, not categorical
• Support for long-term planning (not incident
  management)

Miller and Davis 2004
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Required Data

• Historic ignition points
• Daily historic weather from Remote Automated
  Weather Stations
• Current fuels data
• Fuel model
• Canopy cover
• Canopy bulk density (optional)
• Crown base height (optional)
• Stand height (optional)
• Topographic data
• Elevation
• Slope
• Aspect
• Boundaries delineating the study area

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The BurnPro Approach
PEnd
PNoRain
Miller and Davis 2004
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Outputs - Annual Probability of Burning
Miller and Davis 2004
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Analyses

• What is the probability of burning within a
  landscape?
• Risk assessment, prioritization, prevention
• Opportunities
• What areas within the FMU rely on ignitions
  outside the FMU?
• Where are fires most likely to escape FMU
  boundaries?
• What effect does the FMP have on the probability
  of burning?

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Probability of burning

• Risk Assessment, prioritization, prevention
• Determine risk to valued resources
• Prioritize high risk areas for fuels management
  and prevention planning
• Opportunities for WFU
• Fire management planning, go/no-go decision
  support
• Low probability maximize WFU opportunities
• High probability frequent opportunities,
  possible to suppress more ignitions and still
  accomplish fire management goals

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• Areas that rely on outside ignitions
• High priority for WFU if opportunity arises?
• Prescribed fire to accomplish objectives?
• Where fires are likely to escape
• Priority for fuel treatments outside of
  wilderness boundary?

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Effect of FMP

• Determine the effects of changing the delineation
  of the Fire Management Unit
• Explore alternatives to better accomplish goals
  of fire management
• Reduce risk of escape
• Reduce risk to valued resources
• Increase WFU opportunities

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BurnPro Results Sequoia-Kings Canyon
Sierra Crest FMU (red) managed for natural
processes using WFU.
Analyses What effect do ignitions outside of the
FMU have on the probability of burning within the
FMU?
Miller and Davis 2004
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All lightning ignitions.
Lightning ignitions in FMU only
Miller and Davis 2004
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Probability of burning from all lightning
ignitions
Probability of burning from FMU lightning
ignitions only
Miller and Davis 2004
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Overall small differences.

• Some areas exhibit a large difference.
• Management Implications
• Difficult to restore natural fire regime
• Use prescribed fire to accomplish restoration?
• High priority for WFU? Maximize opportunities?

Miller and Davis 2004
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Model Assumptions and Uncertainties

• Model is only as good as the data.
• Output refers to relative probabilities
• Calculations based on current fuels
• Length of fire season
• Extrapolation of weather data
• Definition of fire-stopping events
• Predictions near the edge of study area are less
  accurate

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Management Implications

• Fire managers better equipped to assess and plan
  for WFU
• BurnPro also useful beyond WFU analysis
• Useful for allocating limited resources and
  prioritizing fuels treatments
• Useful in the absence of fire history information
• Derive potential natural fire regimes
• Preliminary targets for restoration objectives

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References
Miller, Carol. 2003. The spatial context of fire
a new approach for predicting fire occurrence.
Pages 27-34 in K.E.M. Galley, R.C. Klinger, and
N.G. Sugihara (eds). Proceedings of Fire
Conference 2000 The First National Congress on
Fire Ecology, Prevention, and Management.
Miscellaneous Publication No. 13, Tall Timbers
Research Station, Tallahassee, FL. Miller, Carol
and David Parsons. 2004. Can Wildland Fire Use
Restore Natural Fire Regimes in Wilderness and
Other Unroaded Lands? Final Report to the Joint
Fire Science Program. Aldo Leopold Wilderness
Research Institute. Miller, Carol and Brett
Davis. 2004. Prediction of Burn Probabilities
(using BurnPro). TFM 19 Module VI. Aldo Leopold
Wilderness Research Institute and the USFS Rocky
Mountain Research Station. Parsons, David J.
2000. The Challenge of Restoring Natural Fire to
Wilderness. USDA Forest Service Proceedings
Wilderness Science in a Time of Change. Vol. 5.
Zimmerman, Tom and David Bunnell. 1998. Wildland
and Prescribed Fire Management Policy
Implementation Procedures Reference Guide.
National Park Service, USDA Forest Service,
Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service, and Bureau of Land Management.
More Information http//leopold.wilderness.net/res
earchResults.cfm?searchTypeprojectpid8