Natural Gas Supply Conference

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Natural Gas Supply Conference

American Public Gas Association January 30 31,
2001
William Trapmann Energy Information Administration
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Current Natural Gas Spot Prices Well Above the
Recent Price Range
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Residential Prices Do Not Reflect the Volatility
Seen in Upstream Prices
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Consumers Will Pay 45 percent more per Mcf and
Total Heating Bills will be about 75 percent
higher than last Winter
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Natural Gas Spot Prices Base Case and 95
Confidence Interval
Sources History Natural Gas Week Projections
Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2001.
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Annual Changes in Natural Gas Demand by Sector
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
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Storage Stocks are Below the Average Five-Year
Level
(Percentage Difference from Previous 5-Year
Average)
Sources History Natural Gas Week Projections
Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2001.
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Low Natural Gas Stocks Expected at the End of the
Current Heating Season
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Natural Gas Production Exhibits Significant
Decline Rates
Annual gas production replacement in the Gulf
Coast Area, vintiged by year of completion,
1970-97. After Potential Gas Committee 1998,
data from PI/Dwights.
Source Advanced Resource International
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Rigs Drilling Gas Wells Are At All-Time Highs
Drilling Rigs 1/2/98 - 1/19/01