Land Use Impacts of Transportation: A Brief Summary

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Land Use Impacts of Transportation A Brief
Summary
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Land Use Impacts WorkshopsFebruary 2003
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Todays Agenda

• Introductions
• State of Knowledge presentation
• Methods of Analysis presentation
• Lunch
• Expert Panel Case Study presentation
• Work Session
• Summary Wrap-up

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Accessibility Links Transportation and Land Use
Accessibility
Land Use
Transportation
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Land Use - Transportation Interaction in Time
current
future
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Development and Transportation
Increased Demand for Development
Lost opportunities
Zoning and Land Use Related Policies
Attraction to other sites
Adequacy Cost of Private Sites
New Construction
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Land Use
MediatingInfluences ontheTransport
-UrbanFormRelationship
Transportation
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Who Are The Actors?

• Households
• Businesses
• Developers
• Government

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What Does Each Do?

• Households decide to move and where to move
• Businesses decide to expand or to move
• Developers decide to build, and what to build
• Governments make policies, build infrastructure
  and affect prices

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What Affects These Decisions?

• For Households
• accessibility
• prices
• neighborhoods
• schools
• taxes

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What Affects These Decisions?

• For Businesses
• accessibility
• visibility
• prices
• competition

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What Affects These Decisions?

• For Developers
• land supply, price, and characteristics
• utilities services
• construction costs
• expected return
• regulations

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What do studies tell us?
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Impacts of Interstate Highways

• Highways are one of many factors, including
• available land
• regional growth rates
• land use policies
• rising incomes
• increased travel speeds

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Impacts of State Highways

• Study of county growth rates in Minnesota
• Growth sensitive to state and local highway
  improvements
• Investments at the urban edge lead to more
  growth, more often than investments in rural
  areas

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Impacts of Beltways

• Beltway study carried out in 1980
• Analyzed 54 cities, 27 with beltways
• Land use impacts difficult to attribute
• Impacts influenced by local policies

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Impacts of Bypasses

• Comparison of 17 communities in Wisconsin,
  1980-1995
• Significant amounts of traffic remained on old
  routes, depending on size

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Highways and Development

• California study of 26 communities most outside
  of urbanized area
• Potentially impacted by 8 freeway-widening
  projects
• Impacts seen in short-term and decrease over time
  . . .

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Development, continued

• Short-term impacts
• Increased rate of single-family development
• One-time spurt in multi-family development
• Accelerated commercial development
• No change for industrial development

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Transportation and Land Values

• Change over time as highway and Interstate
  network increases
• Mohring (1959) Value of land close to
  expressways increased 300 to 600
• Smaller increases for land further away

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Land Values, continued

• Cervero and Duncan (2001)
• Land price study in Santa Clara, CA
• Analysis found . . .

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Land Values, continued
Impact on land value due to proximity
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Transportation and Land Consumption

• Study using MEPLAN, and integrated land use
  transportation model
• Sacramento region -- compared variety of 2020
  transportation scenarios
• LRT, Pricing, HOV, and Beltways

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Land Consumption, continued

• LRT 75 new miles of track
• Pricing 5 increase in per-mile cost of
  driving
• HOV Increase of 153 lane-miles
• Beltways Adds two regional beltways to the HOV
  scenario

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Land Consumption, continued

• Change in land consumption, relative to Base Case

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Induced Travel and Growth

• Several Components
• Population and employment growth
• Before construction
• After construction
• Trips diverted from other routes times
• Trips diverted from other modes
• New and/or additional trips

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Induced Travel, continued

• Amsterdam (1992) study
• Effect of opening Zeeburger Tunnel
• Provided 25 increase in capacity across North
  Sea Canal.
• Study found 4.5 increase in traffic
• 1.5 -- route diversion
• 1.0 -- diversion from transit
• 2.0 -- change in travel frequency

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Induced Travel, continued

• Effects vary over time

Impact of a 10 increase in lane-miles
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Induced Travel, continued

• Sacramento study using MEPLAN
• Increase lane-miles by 10 leads to
• 8 - 10 increase in VMT
• What happens when hold various modeling
  components constant?

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Induced Travel, continued
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Summary

• Land use impacts result from changes in
  accessibility
• Accessibility is only one of several factors that
  influence decisions for
• Households
• Businesses

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Summary

• Intuition suggests land use impacts occur
• Empirical data and models suggest the same
• Most impacts difficult to measure

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Summary

• Impacts most evident at smaller geographic scales
• Public policies and expenditures (zoning,
  utilities, fees) affect impacts

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ConclusionInvestments lead to development, with
diminishing returns

• Many land use impacts involve redistribution of
  activity and land value
• Places at the edge benefit most
• Jobs follow workers
• Affluent areas (favored quarters ) fare best

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ConclusionInvestments lead to development, with
diminishing returns

• As regions grow, any one investment has less
  impact

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Summary

• How can we use what we know and observe to make
  good decisions?

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Citations for Studies

• Please see notes for each slide for citations.