Ozone SIP Schedule and CCOS Products

1
Ozone SIP Schedule and CCOS Products Policy
Committee Meeting
John DaMassa April 18, 2002
2
Ozone SIP and CCOS Products

• Inventory Development (6/02 12/02)
• Meteorological Modeling (9/02 12/02)
• Air Quality Model Selection (10/02)
• Air Quality Model Evaluation (1/03)
• Attainment Demonstration (6/03)

3
Inventory Development

• Status of Emission Inventory Development
• Develop Preliminary Inventory
• Include Many New Improvements
• EMFAC 2001 v2.08
• Biogenics
• Spatial Surrogates
• Available Jun. 2002

4
Inventory Development

• Develop Final Inventory
• Final EMFAC
• Transportation Network
• Final COG Activity Data (9/02)
• Dairy Inventory Update
• Heavy Duty Truck Movement
• Freeze Inventory (12/02)
• Future Year Inventory

5
Inventory Development

• New Supporting Contracts
• UC Berkeley
• Create Fuel-Based Inventory for Motor Vehicles
  (12/02)
• Create VOC Speciation Profiles for
  Gasoline-Powered Vehicles (12/02)

6
Meteorological Modeling

• MM5 Is Likely to Be Used
• RAMS is an Alternative Model
• CCOS Measurements Will Be Used for Model
  Improvements and Evaluation

7
Meteorological Modeling

• New Supporting Contracts
• NOAA
• Initial Simulation (9/02)
• Optimized Model (12/02)
• TB Systems
• Provide Met Data Analysis for Model Evaluation
  (9/02)

8
Air Quality Model Selection

• Available Models
• SAQM - 1994 SJV SIP Model
• CMAQ U.S. EPAs Model
• CAMx ENVIRONs Model

9
Air Quality Model Selection

• Select SIP Model
• ARB, districts, EPA Select Model with Public
  Input (10/02)
• Optimize SIP Model
• Grid resolution
• Numerical Analysis Options
• Meteorological Inputs
• Emissions Updates
• Select Optimum Model Config. (12/02)

10
Air Quality Model Selection

• New Supporting Contracts
• UCR and TB Systems
• Evaluate Models on Common Ground
• Evaluate Different Chemistries
• Provide Input for Model Selection

11
Air Quality Model Evaluation

• Model Performance Evaluation
• Episodes
• July 30 August 2, 2000 (Su-We)
• September 17 20, 2000 (Su-We)
• June 14 15, 2000 (We-Th) (Will Be Included in
  the Bay Area SIP)
• August 3 6, 1990 (Fr-Mo)

12
Air Quality Model Evaluation

• Complete Model Evaluation
• Compare Model Output to Observations (U.S. EPA,
  ARB, and Other Guidance)
• Stress Test Models
• Freeze Air Quality Model for SIP Simulations

13
Air Quality Model Evaluation

• New Supporting Contracts
• UCR/UCD, RFP
• Identify Significant Contributors to Ozone
  Formation Through Analysis of Observed Data
• Evaluate Formation of Ozone Using Air Quality
  Indicators
• Compare Both Results to Model Outputs

14
Attainment Demonstration

• Attainment Demonstration
• Assess Carrying Capacity
• Simulate Episodes with Proposed Emission Controls