Probability and Statistics MIE 273 CEE 260

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Probability and StatisticsMIE 273 CEE 260

• Professor Erin Baker

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Probability and StatisticsTodays Goals

• Introductions
• Me
• You
• Prob Stats
• Understand Course Requirements

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Who am I?

• Professor Erin Baker
• 120 Marston
• 5-0670
• edbaker_at_ecs.umass.edu
• Decision Making under Uncertainy Economics
  Climate change policy Technology policy.

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Pension Actuary for Coopers Lybrand
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Junior High Math Teacher
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Peace Corps. Secondary School Math Teacher
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Associate Professor at UMass
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Professor Erin Baker Energy, Environment, and
Economic-Decision Making Lab

• We are applying mathematical modeling and
  economic reasoning to important public policy
  questions, with a focus on energy and the
  environment
• The ideal student for our lab has
• A love of math, and strong skills to go with it
• An interest in making the world a better place
• Also useful programming skills/interest, a
  background in science or engineering, especially
  related to the environment or energy, strong
  communication skills.

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Professor Erin Baker Energy, Environment, and
Economic-Decision Making Lab
Fossil fuels create greenhouse gasses
Climate Change
The buildup of greenhouse gasses has lead to
higher temperatures
The impacts of higher temperatures are starting
to be felt around the world.
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Professor Erin Baker, edbaker_at_ecs.umass.edu Energy
, Environment, and Economic-Decision Making Lab
We are applying mathematical modeling and
economic reasoning to determine how research
dollars can best be spent on energy technologies
in the face of climate change.
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Electricity Market Simulations Marc Santos,
Nathanael Miksis, and Dr. Erin Baker Energy,
Environment, and Economic Decision-Making Lab,
University of Massachusetts
Consumer awareness can be achieved by
transitioning to digital real-time meters, making
demand dependent on price.
Agent-based modeling shows how this can help
reduce price spikes and blackouts.
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Professor Erin Baker, edbaker_at_ecs.umass.edu Energy
, Environment, and Economic-Decision Making Lab

• Pioneer Valley Sustainability Network

Define Sustainability Metrics Through Public
Discussion
Map the metrics onto energy alternatives in a
web-based decision support system
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Professor Erin Baker, edbaker_at_ecs.umass.edu Energy
, Environment, and Economic-Decision Making Lab

• Communicating Scientific Uncertainty to Decision
  Makers

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Who Are You

• Major/Intended Major
• CE/EE
• IE
• ME
• other
• not sure

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Who Are You

• Where are you from?
• Western Mass
• Eastern Mass
• Other New England
• Other U.S.
• International

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Who Are You

• What do you want to do when you grow up?
• Be an Engineer
• Make Important Decisions
• Make the world a better place

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Why study probability and statistics?

• The only purposeful impact you will have on your
  life and in the world will come from decisions
  you make.
• What makes decisions hard?

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Why study probability and statistics?

• Probability and statistics are the language of
  uncertainty.
• We are able to explicitly include uncertainty
  into decision making using probability.
• Statistics provide data about uncertain
  relationships

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What happens if you ignore uncertainty in
decision making?
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The Flaw of Averages
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What kind of engineering decisions involve
uncertainty?
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What kind of engineering decisions involve
uncertainty?

• Designing a bridge
• Earthquakes
• Safety standards
• Costs
• Materials
• Designing a water system
• Future climate conditions
• Future population
• Supply Chain Management
• Future Demand
• Hurricanes and other disruptions
• Designing a wind turbine
• Wind conditions
• Materials

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What kind of engineering decisions involve NO
uncertainty?
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Decision Focused

• Consider a situation in which a potential cancer
  cluster has been identified.
• In a building of 1000 people, 18 have been
  diagnosed with a particular form of cancer.
• The incidence of this kind of cancer in the
  general population is .01.

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Decision Focused

• Consider a situation in which a potential cancer
  cluster has been identified.
• In a building of 1000 people, 18 have been
  diagnosed with a particular form of cancer.
• The incidence of this kind of cancer in the
  general population is .01.
• Why is it important to determine whether or not
  this is really a cluster?

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What is probability?

• One thing that makes decisions hard is
  uncertainty.
• Uncertainty can be assessed or discussed
  informally using language such as it is
  unlikely or probably.
• Probability measures uncertainty formally,
  quantitatively.
• Probability is the mathematical language of
  uncertainty.

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What is statistics?

• Statistics are numbers that summarize the results
  of a study.
• Statistical inference formalizes the process of
  learning through observation.
• Statistics is the field that studies how to
  efficiently collect informative data, explore and
  interpret these data and draw conclusions based
  on them.

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Discuss Syllabus

• Show up
• clicker rules
• Why use clickers?
• Active learning.
• homework rules
• Typo Book should be 7th edition.

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80 of life is showing up!
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PRS Clickers

• You are required to have a clicker for this
  class.
• This will allow me to use active learning.
• It will also give us some survey results to work
  with.
• PRS scores will be 5 of final grade.
• Survey questions are worth 1 point
• Graded questions are worth ¾ for submitting any
  answer and ¼ for the right answer.
• Each lecture will be worth an equal amount
• I will drop the lowest three days (but no more
  than that).

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PRS clickers

• You need to input your student ID into your
  clicker so I can keep track of the grades.
• press the "" button on the clicker until it
  reads "Setup menu" on the top line
• Scroll using the up and down pointing
  trianglesuntil you see idltsome numbergt on the
  bottom.  Press the enter key (the green button). 
  ID should appear on the top line and you can now
  type your student ID in.  once it is typed hit
  the green enter button again. Your ID should now
  be saved in your clicker until you go through
  this process again.

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Take-home pre-test

• Pre-test to assess where the class is in
  understanding and for you to compare at the end
  of the term.
• Spend 1 hour on the test. Do not look up any
  answers. Use only your knowledge.
• Some of the questions are conceptual. Answer as
  best you can, giving specific probabilities when
  you can and being specific about what
  information you need.
• Due at beginning of class Wednesday.