Brian McInerney Hydrologist National Weather Service Hydrologic Outlook April 2006

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Brian McInerneyHydrologistNational Weather
ServiceHydrologic OutlookApril 2006
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Hydrologic Outlook

• Temperature

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March Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from
Normal

• March 2005

• March 2006

• 0.1 degrees cooler than average

• 1.0 degrees warmer than average

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April Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from
Normal

• April 2005

• April 2006

• 0.7 degrees warmer than average

• 2.9 degrees warmer than average

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Western US Temperature Departure from Normal

• March 2005

• March 2006

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Western US Temperature Departure from Normal

• October, 2005 - March, 2006

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Hydrologic Outlook

• Precipitation

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Precipitation
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Precipitation
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Utah and neighboring statesSeasonal
Precipitation 2006 Water Year
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Hydrologic Outlook

• Snowpack

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Hydrologic Outlook

• Water Supply

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Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volumes
April 1st 2006 April Through July Volume
Forecast Percent of 30 Year Average Flows Utah
Area River Basins
Much Above Normal Above Normal Normal Below
Normal Much Below Normal
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Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

• April 1st 2006
• April Through July Volume Forecast
• Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
• Bear River Basin

• Bear River

• Woodruff

• Bear Lake

123

• Logan

143

• Hyrum

140

• Ut/Wy
• Stateline

• Blacksmith Fork

119
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Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

• April 1st, 2006
• April Through July Volume Forecast
• Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
• Weber River Basin

• Pineview Res.

• Lost Creek Res.

• Ogden River

129
131

• Gateway

132

• East Canyon Res.

• Weber River

148

• Chalk Creek

• Rockport Res.

122
123

• Oakley

118
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Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

• April 1st, 2006
• April Through July Volume Forecast
• Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
• Six Creeks River Basin

• City Creek

178

• Dell Fk.

• Emigration Ck.

126
122

• Parleys Creek

• Mill Creek

150
129

• Jordan River

• Big Cottonwood Creek

129

• Little Cottonwood Creek

138
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Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

• April 1st, 2006
• April Through July Volume Forecast
• Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
• Provo River Basin

• Jordanelle Res

124

• Deer Creek Res

129

• Woodland

119

• American Fork

134

• Provo River

• Castilla

132

• Utah Lake

126
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Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

• April 1st, 2006
• April Through July Volume Forecast
• Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
• Green River Basin

• Flaming Gorge Res.

102

• Strawberry Res.

• Red Fleet Res.

122
95

• Upper Stillwater

112

• Moon Lake

• Starvation Res.

110

• Tabiona

114
112

• Randlett

• Scofield Res.

• Duchesne

• Myton

120
115
119
121

• Price River

• Green River

• Colorado River

114

• Lake Powell Res.

97
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Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

• April 1st, 2006
• April Through July Volume Forecast
• Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
• Sevier River Basin

• Gunnison

70

• Ephraim Creek

• Salina Creek

• Sevier Lake

• Sevier River

• Clear Creek

• Sevier

• Beaver

80
85

• Beaver River

• Piute Res.

• Minersville

71
60
89
84

• Sevier River East Fork

• Hatch

• Cedar City

• Kingston

91
90
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Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

• April 1st, 2006
• April Through July Volume Forecast
• Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
• Virgin River Basin

• Pine Valley

60

• Virgin River North Fork

• Santa Clara River

• Virgin

73

• Littlefield, AZ

• Virgin River East Fork

• Hurricane

54
70
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Hydrologic Outlook

• Flood Potential

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Increased Flood Potential

• Cache Valley

• City Creek

• Jordan River

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Hydrologic OutlookLogan Basin Snow vs. Logan
River flow of 1997 Flood Flow at 1360 cfs

• 1997s flows flooded summer homes in Logan Canyon

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Hydrologic OutlookLogan Basin Snow vs. Logan
River flow of 2005 Flood Flow at 1360 cfs

• 2005 river flows did not exceed flood flow

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Hydrologic OutlookCity Creek Snow Flood Flow at
2000 cfs
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Hydrologic Outlook

• Peak Flow Forecast

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Hydrologic Outlook
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Hydrologic Outlook
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Hydrologic Outlook
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Hydrologic Outlook
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Hydrologic Outlook

• Short Term Forecast

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Hydrologic OutlookShort Term Forecast

• Temperature through April 15th, 2006
• Cooler temperature levels on Monday
• Near normal temperatures through the weekend
• Cooler temps through weekend
• Precipitation through April 15th, 2005
• Near normal throughout mid-month

• Click for Satellite

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Hydrologic Outlook

• Long Range Forecast

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Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST
Departures
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Forecasted Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST
Departures
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Spring Climate

• Spring climate will dictate runoff scenario
• Soil moisture is near saturation in the north
• This allows a great runoff efficiency
• Cool wet spring will enhance runoff efficiency
  and heighten flood potential
• Length of melt window is shortened
• More water into streams and reservoirs
• Analogy of a wet sponge
• Warmer drier spring will reduce water volume and
  lessen flood potential
• Lengthen window of melt
• Earlier melt, means more evaporation,
  infiltration and sublimation
• Less efficient melt process
• We are running out of time for this scenario

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Forecast UpdatesContact the CBRFC (Colorado
Basin River Forecast Center)

• Forecast Services
• Up to the minute forecast updates
• Hourly, daily, and monthly time scales
• Reservoir inflow
• Peak flow forecasts

• Contact
• Michelle Schmidt
• Hydrologist in Charge
• 801-524-5130
• Steve Shumate
• Development and Operational Hydrologist
• 801-524-5130

• www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

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Forecast UpdatesContact the National Weather
Service Forecast Center (Weather Info)

• Forecast Services
• Flood Forecasts, Advisories, Watches, and
  Warnings
• Weather Forecasts
• Radar, satellite, weather station data
• Observed conditions
• Climate data

• Contact
• Brian McInerney
• Hydrologist
• 801-971-2033

• http//www.weather.gov/

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Contact Information
Additional Information Contact Brian
McInerney Hydrologist National Weather
Service 801-971-2033 c brian.mcinerney_at_noaa.gov