CANSAC Products tour

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CANSAC Products tour From the perspective of an
operational fire-weather Meteorologist
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36-km domain Strong ridge of high pressure aloft
at 500 mb. 21-hr forecast, valid last Tuesday
night
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36-km domain 700 mb (10K ft) humidity and
wind 36-hr forecast, valid last Wednesday
afternoon
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36-km domain 850 mb (5000 ft level) Temps
colors Pressure lines and Wind- barbs 60-hr
forecast, valid last Thursday afternoon
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12-km domain 700 mb (10,000 ft level) Temps
colors Pressure lines and Wind- barbs 36-hr
forecast, valid two afternoons ago
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12-km domain 700 mb (10,000 ft level) RH
colors Vert Vel. lines Wind- barbs 18-hr
forecast, valid this past Mon. evening Blue in
ID/east OR is lift ahead of an upper-level trough
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Above is a comparison of what we call Thickness
(1000-500mb). We use it to gauge overall airmass
temperature. The mild airmass of Monday morning
is on left, and a much colder airmass (Wed.
morning) following recent weather change is on
the right.
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12-km domain Surface level Temps
colors Pressure lines Wind- barbs 15-hr
forecast, valid back on Monday, when CA was still
in warm airmass
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12-km domain This is a map of the high-level
Haines Index. It is a 48-hour forecast valid
yesterday morning. This Index is meant to depict
the potential for large fire growth, given an
existing wild- fire. But it doesnt take wind
into account. Its best use is to predict
plume-dominated vs wind-driven fire behavior.
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12-km domain Pressure blue lines Wind speed
colors Important to remem- ber on these upper
air maps Wind is shown in meters/sec. You can
approximate mph speeds by doubling the value
shown here. In other words, the southern UT
winds are over 50 mph! 54-hr fcst,
valid yesterday morning.
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12-km domain Same idea as previous frame, except
at a higher level this time 500 mb, about
18000. Winds over Bay Area and Tahoe exceed 80
mph! 48 hour forecast valid 4am
yesterday morning
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12-km domain Map of 24-hr total predicted
precipitation, for the period 4 pm PST Tuesday
to 4pm Wed. Scale is in inches. Each level up
is double the amount of predicted rain.
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Some other useful information found on the main
Products matrix page The first highlighted here
is the MM5 Notices and Problems Log
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Other useful information, continued. This is
where you click to look at Air Quality Products.
It is a relatively new section of the
page. Evan Shipp will cover some of these shortly
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Air Quality Products
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Other useful information, continued . This is
where you click to look at NFDRS Products. This
page Requires a login and password.
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Experimental NFDRS 1-day Forecasts National
Fire Danger Rating System
When you click on one of these images you get a
full screen of that image. For example,
Energy Release Component (ERC) here
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Energy Release Component Forecast
Initialization 20060214 00Z -- Valid for 20060214
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Other useful information, continued . This is
where you click to find Verification products
for our CANSAC MM5 model.
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300 mb Heights, Winds Analysis
etc.
300 mb Heights, Winds -- Model 500 mb Temps,
Heights, Winds -- Analysis
500 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- Model
700 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- Analysis
etc. 700
mb Temps, Heights, Winds Model 850 Temps,
Heights, Winds -- Analysis
850 Temps,
Heights, Winds -- Model
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Verification from 12-km domain. One can also
look at 36-km and 4-km domains
In the verification example above, the MM5
models 48-hour forecast of 500mb temperatures,
pressure (height) lines, and winds are on the
right. The forecast was made at 12z (4am PST)
on Feb. 10th, so it predicts for the time of 12z
on Feb. 12th. What actually happened at 12z on
Feb. 12th (i.e. the verification) is shown on
the left.
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Other useful information, continued . This is
where you can provide feedback to the CEFA/DRI
folks who run the MM5 model
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This frame shows most of the products from the
4-km domain, i.e, the model domain with the best
resolution
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Surface 10m Wind Speed (NW Quadrant) 12-Hr
fcst valid Tues. 4pm PST on 2/14
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Surface 10m Wind Speed (SE Quadrant) 33-Hr
fcst valid 1pm this afternoon (2/16)
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4-km domain Predicted surface temperatures in
the current cold airmass. In CANSAC graphics,
surface temp maps are in Fahrenheit, while upper
maps are in in ºC. This is a 57-hour
projection, valid 1300 PST Friday.
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4-km domain Predicted surface Relative Humidity
This is a 33-hour projection, valid 1300 PST
today.
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In the MM5s 4-km Domain section, You can click
on Soundings. This will bring you to the map on
the left. Placing your cursor over a Sounding
point will bring a small pop-up with the Site
name. When you click you will see the first
(zero forecast hr) Sounding, with a top menu bar
containing the other 20 choices at 3-hour
intervals out through 60 hours.
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Sounding at Sonora CA valid 4am PST 2/8/06