Susan H. Holte

1
Outlook for U.S. Energy Markets
Susan H. Holte Technical Assistant to the
Administrator Energy Information Administration
10th Annual IOF-WV Symposium November 8,
2006 Charleston, WV
2
Major Events and World Oil Prices 1970-2005
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Strike U.S. Gulf Coast
dollars per barrel
3
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price(dollars
per barrel)


History
Projections

Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006
4
World Oil Surplus Production Capacity(million
barrels per day)
History
Projections
Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006
5
World Oil Consumption Growth(million barrels per
day)
History
Projections
1.9
1.2
1.8
Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development
Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006
6
World Oil Consumption Growth(million barrels per
day)
History
Projections
Oil Demand Growth
World Oil Demand
Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006
7
Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Oil Stocks
History
Projections
Previous 5-Year Min/Max Range

Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006
8
U.S. Petroleum Products Consumption Growth
(thousand barrels per day)
History
Projections
1.5
-0.6
0.3
Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006
9
U.S. Crude Oil Stocks(million barrels)
History
Projections
Previous 5-Year Min/Max Range

Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006
10
U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices(cents per
gallon)
Projections
History
Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006
11
U.S. Distillate Fuel Prices(cents per gallon)
Projections
History
Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006
12
U.S. Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot Prices(dollars
per thousand cubic feet)
History
Projections
Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006
13
Working Natural Gas in Underground
Storage(billion cubic feet)
History
Projections
Previous 5-Year Min/Max Range


Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006
14
With the Annual Energy Outlook 2006, EIA
Reassessed Its Long-Term Oil Price Projection

• Major oil producing countries pace investment
  more consistent with higher oil price path
• Investment impediments more persistent, even
  after several years of relatively high oil prices
• Cost of doing business increasing
• Not due to Peak Oil considerations, although we
  are following this issue closely

15
World Oil Prices in Three Cases, 1980-2030 (2004
dollars per barrel)
History
Projections
High Price
Reference
Low Price
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
16
U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel,
1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu)
History
Projections
Petroleum
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
17
U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector, 2004
and 2030 (quadrillion Btu)
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
18
U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector,
1970-2030 (million barrels per day)
Projections
History
Transportation
Industrial
Residential and Commercial
Electric Power
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
19
Import Share of U.S. Petroleum Supply,
1980-2030(million barrels per day)
Low Price
High Price
68
53
Consumption
Net Imports
58
High Price
Production
Low Price
Projections
History
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
20
U.S. Crude Oil Production by Source,
1990-2030 (million barrels per day)
Projections
History
Total
Lower 48 Onshore
Deepwater Offshore
Alaska
Shallow Water Offshore
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
21
U.S. Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead
Prices, 1990-2030 (2004 dollars per thousand
cubic feet)
7.71
History
Projections
5.92
High Price
Reference
4.97
Low Price
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
22
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector,
1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet)
History
Projections
Industrial
Electric Power
Residential
Commercial
Transportation
Includes lease and plant fuel
Includes pipeline fuel
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
23
U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net
Imports, 1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet)
History
Projections
Consumption
Net Imports
21
15
Production
Natural Gas Net Imports, 2004 and 2030 (trillion
cubic feet)
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
24
U.S. Natural Gas Production by Source,
1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet)
Projections
History
Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional
Lower 48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore
Lower 48 Non-Associated Offshore
Lower 48 Associated-Dissolved
Alaska
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
25
U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas,
1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet)
History
Projections
Liquefied Natural Gas
Canada
Mexico
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
26
U.S. Coal Consumption by Sector,
1970-2030 (million short tons)
History
Projections
Total
Electric Power
Coal to Liquids
Other
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
27
U.S. Minemouth Coal Price by Region,
1990-2030 (2004 dollars per short ton)
History
Projections
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
28
U.S. Coal Production by Region,
1970-2030 (million short tons)
History
Projections
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
29
U.S. Electricity Price, 1970-2030 (2004 cents per
kilowatthour)
History
Projections
7.6
7.5
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
30
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel,
1980-2030 (billion kilowatthours)
History
Projections
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Petroleum
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
31
U.S. Electricity Generating Capacity,
including Combined Heat and Power, 2004-2030
(gigawatts)
New Nuclear
New Renewable
New Coal
Needed Capacity
New Natural Gas
Existing Other Fossil Steam
Existing Combustion Turbine
Existing Coal Steam
Existing Combined-Cycle
Existing Renewable
Existing Nuclear
Existing Pumped Storage
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
32
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and
Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly
Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual
Energy Outlook 2006, February 2006, next release
November 28 International Energy Outlook 2005,
June 2006 Examples of Special Analyses
Economic Effects of High Oil Prices, Annual
Energy Outlook 2006 Analysis of Oil and Gas
Production in the Arctic National Wildlife
Refuge, March 2004 The Global
Liquefied Natural Gas Market Status and Outlook,
Dec 2003 Restricted Natural Gas Supply
Case, Annual Energy Outlook 2005
www.eia.doe.gov
Susan H. Holte susan.holte_at_eia.doe.gov
EIA Is Hiring !