General election campaign

1
General election campaign

• General election strategies
• General do campaigns matter? Things that all
  candidates do concentrate on competitive
  states, move to the center, avoid mistakes
  (especially in the televised debates).
• The underdog Mondale (1984), Dole (1996)
• Front-runner Reagan (1984), Clinton (1996)
• Competitive 1988 (Dukasis/Bush sr., 1992
  (Clinton/Bush), 2000 (Gore/Bush), 2004
  (Kerry/Bush).

2
The Electoral College

• Founders intent shield the election of the
  president from the popular vote. Another
  less-talked about implication greatly
  advantaged the slave states because of the 3/5
  compromise (compared to the influence they would
  have had with a direct popular vote). Electors
  have never really exercised independent
  influence.
• Basics how it works.

3
Electoral college, cont.

• Problems with the electoral college
• -- Popular vote winner loses the presidency
  1824 (Jackson, JQ Adams, William Crawford, John
  Calhoun), 1876 (Samuel Tilden, only majority vote
  winner who lost, and Rutherford Hayes), 1888
  (Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison), 2000
  (Bush and Gore).
• -- small state bias.
• -- ignore non-competitive states.
• -- faithless electors.

4
Electoral college, cont.

• Close calls
• 1968 Richard Nixon, Hubert Humphrey, and
  George Wallace. Came very close to having a
  deadlocked electoral college.
• The 2000 election and the faithless elector.
  Nightmare scenario of a Florida deadlock. No
  electoral college winner.
• 1896 vs. 2000 (not really related to the
  electoral college, but the mirror image is very
  interesting.)

5
Interpreting the 2000 election

• Florida fallout and Bush v. Gore.
• Basic chronology of events
• Factors limiting Gores vote in Florida
• Butterfly ballot
• Voter purge
• Other problems at the polls (race, punch-card
  ballots)
• Bush v. Gore
• Majority opinion 14th amendment, manner
  directed clause of Article 2 of the
  Constitution.
• Dissents impact on the Supreme Court.
• The recount Bush would have won under the
  scenarios asked for by Gores legal team Gore
  would have won under several different standard
  in a state-wide recount.

6
Interpreting the 2004 election

• National security and terrorism for Bush.
• The flip-flopper charge against Kerry.
• The Christian Right, the moral values divide.
• Bush did better among women and Latinos in 2004.
• Kerry did better than Gore among the 18-29
  year-old voters.
• Mobilizing the base the ground war. Get
  people to vote, but doesnt shift positions.
• Presidential Mandates myth or reality?

7
Selecting presidents

• Gap between campaigning and governing the types
  of skills needed to be successful in a campaign
  arent the same needed to govern. Difference
  between Giuliani as mayor and as a candidate.
  More interesting as mayor!
• Clinton may be the exception here his
  presidency has been referred to as the perpetual
  campaign.
• What are the skills needed to be successful at
  both? Some overlap certainly.