Its not hopeless

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Lots of bad news, but
Its not hopeless!!
Human ingenuity and technology are remarkable.
Appropriate policy choices are available
to minimize and adapt to climate change.
Maybe well be lucky, and unanticipated factors
or feedbacks may slow the rate of change.
Perhaps we (esp. U.S.) will be forced to change
by the price and availability of fossil fuels.
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3.92 U.S.
6/16/08
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4.30 U.S.
6/16/08
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L.A. smog
plus invisible GHGs
Chief source combustion of petroleum products
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Petroleum a thick, flammable mixture of solid,
liquid, and gaseous hydrocarbons (organic
compounds with H and C) that occurs naturally
beneath the Earth's surface.
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Fractional distillation in a refinery
very schematic cartoon
L.A. oil refinery
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Petrochemicals
Chemicals produced from petroleum
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Plastics.
The Graduate 1967
ALL PLASTICS are petrochemicals.
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polystyrene
epoxies
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PVC
solvents
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Polyester the most widely used artificial fiber
in the U.S.
apparel home furnishings, plus bottles,
fiberglass, LCDs, holograms, filters, insulators,
auto body parts
Other synthetic fibers, such as acrylics
dacron clothing, yarn, rugs, rope, sails,
grafts, containers, resins
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Nylon
Apparel, carpets, musical strings, fishing line,
racket strings, rope, auto parts, machine parts,
sutures
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rubbing alcohol
detergents
antiseptics
synthetic rubber
MTBE
vinyl
dyes
Modern developed societies depend on petroleum in
innumerable ways. We are petroleum-dependent.
No civilization can survive the destruction of
its resource base. Bruce Sterling
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Make lists of the top 5 countries
Petroleum production to date (since 1860)
Current (1997) rate of petroleum production
KSA USA FSU Iran Mexico/Venez
Remaining petroleum
KSA FSU Iraq Iran Kuwait/USA
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Iran
Iraq

Kuwait
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Qatar
UAE
Oman
Yemen
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The Middle East contains 4560 of the
worlds petroleum reserves.
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How to Make Exploitable Petroleum
1. Start with lots of source rock, such as shale
containing organic material that has not been
oxidized (not very common).
2. Heat the source rock to 60120C (for oil) or
120220C (for gas). Do not overcook. Bring a
book library this may take millions of years.
3. Place a reservoir rock above the source rock.
The petroleum will rise because of its low
density, so you need a porous (and preferably
permeable) rock to hold it.
4. Ensure that the reservoir has a suitable
trapa subsurface geologic structure that will
hold (trap) petroleum in the reservoir rock,
preventing its slow migration to the surface.
Paraphrased from Earth, M., The Planet Earth
Cookbook, 208 m.y. ago, Terra Publishers. Should
you wish to prevent exploitation by life forms,
schedule additional extraterrestrial impacts.
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Pores are open spaces between the particles of a
rock.
Pores may contain air, gas, or liquid (water or
oil).
The more pore space, the higher the porosity.
The more connected the pores, the higher the
permeability.
Pore fluids will flow more easily in rocks that
are more permeable.
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Cartoon of a vertical slice through the crust
showing traps in reservoir rocks where petroleum
and water typically accumulate.
Petroleum
Petroleum
Water
Color code
Rock
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Typical EP (exploration and production) steps
Explore, using dumb luck (Jed) geologic mapping
(late 1800s) standard geophysical tools (1930s)
high-tech tools (1990s). Drill a test well. If
the petroleum is trapped and under pressure, it
will rise naturally no pumping needed (Jed,
early Saudi Arabia). This is the primary
recovery phasefreely flowing petroleum.
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Typical EP steps, part 2
Primary recovery lasts for several months or
years as the pressure drops, free flow ceases
and operators must use secondary recovery
techniques for the sluggish petroleum. The most
common technique injection of water or gas.
Injection well
Production well
water forced downward
petroleum rises
water enters pores, raises pressure sweeps
petroleum in front of it
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Typical EP steps, part 3
Water injection also is used to increase
production, but usually at cost of quicker
decline and less total production. Injected
water produces problems with corrosion, scaling,
treatment prior to disposal require costly
processing and replacement of parts.
Tertiary recovery techniques may be used once
the injection techniques are ineffective.
However, theyre expensive, and thus feasible
only if the price of petroleum is high....
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Production history of an oil field
Primary
Tertiary
Secondary
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M. King Hubbert and Peak Oil
Peak Oil The maximum sustainable production
rate of petroleum for an area (e.g., a field, a
country, or the world).
M. King Hubbert (U.S. geologist) predicted that
production rate for any well, field, or region
will resemble a bell curve.
The peak of such a curve is known as Hubberts
Peak.
Peak Oil does NOT mean running out of oil.
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Hubberts prediction for U.S. peak oil 1970
Actual date of U.S. peak oil 1970
(curve shape differs from his prediction due to
reduced demand in wake of 70s oil embargo,
Alaska discoveries)
Modern production techniques generally cause (a)
a plateau rather than a sharp peak, and (2) an
asymmetric curve due to a drawn-out decline side.
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Hubberts predictions for global peak oil
production
1969 19902000, depending on level of
ultimately recoverable oil reserves (URR)
1974 1995, if present trends continue.
Production rate (Gb/yr)
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Global peak production had not peaked by 2004.
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Summer 2004 to Summer 2008 Global production of
crude oil (or total liquids) looks like a broad
peak.
3/08
74 mdbp
72 mdbp
70 mdbp
Crude oil only. Total liquids curve looks the
same
1/03
1/04
1/05
1/06
1/07
8/07
Note Peak Oil will be unmistakable only in
hindsight.
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Key question What are the worlds reserves?
Ultimately recoverable oil reserves (URR) are the
sum of
(1) production to date
Everyone agrees global production since 1850
has been roughly 1 trillion barrels.
(2) remaining reserves
Controversial opinions vary about recoverability
(easy oil is gone) some (OPEC) reserve reports
were inflated.
(3) undiscovered potential, aka yet-to-find
i.e,. oil that exists in fields that
have not yet been found
These estimates are educated guesses. as were
thousands of dry and wet wells. Are you feeling
lucky?
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Estimates of Global URR
Studies by the USGS, some oil companies, and
energy agencies have concluded that global URR gt
3 trillion barrels.
If they are correct, global peak oil will not
arrive before 2035 (3 trillion supply, and weve
only used 1 trillion)
In contrast, independent oil analysts (including
retired petroleum geologists) think global URR is
lt3 trillion barrels, and probably about 2
trillion barrels.
If they are correct, global peak oil may be upon
us (2 trillion supply, and weve used 1 trillion).
note different weighting of political and
technical data
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No peak yet
World production forecasts optimists
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Peak in 20052012
World production forecasts peakists
these 4 from previous graph
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Many economists and oil companies argue that Peak
Oil is not an imminent threat.
This comparatively optimistic view, sometimes
labeled cornucopian by antagonists, figures
that human ingenuity will result in one or more
(preferably all) of the following
(1) large, currently unknown reserves will be
discovered
(2) improved oil field technology will augment
recovery
(3) production of non-conventional oil will
increase greatly
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CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates),
consulting firm to the energy industry, thinks
the global oil peak is decades away, and will be
followed by an undulating plateau.
URR estimates
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As we saw earlier, global production since late
2004 looks like an undulatory plateau.
Crude oil only. Total liquids curve looks the
same
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A long list of troubling observations
1. Declining discoveries (since 1986, production
gt discovery)
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A long list of troubling observations
2. Rapid declines in conventional oil fields,
despite the aggressive use of secondary and
tertiary production tecnhology.
U.K. (North Sea)
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3. Problems with unconventional reserves (1)
Low recovery rates do not match the gradual
decline in conventional reserves, much less add
supply to meet growing demand. (2) Processing
requires huge amounts of fresh water, natural
gas, or both.
Compare these projected production levels of
unconventional sources to CERA estimate on the
following page (part of projects).
OIES, 8/05
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4. The collapse of supergiant fields, such as the
second- and third-largest fields in the world
Bergan in Kuwait and Cantarell in Mexico.
Bergan peaked in 2005
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Mexico supplies 16 of U.S. crude oil imports
Total production crude NGLs other
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Cantarell Worlds second-largest oil field
Discovered 1975 started production 1977
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
Mexico has formally informed the U.S. that soon
it will not be able to export oil (it will become
a net importer!)
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A long list of troubling observations
5. Inflated reserve estimates OPEC countries do
not release detailed data about reserves and
production capacity, so estimates must be made
using indirect evidence. Meanwhile, the reserves
declared by these countries show huge,
unexplained jumps,
KSA 110 Gb to 150 Gb (1979) Kuwait
65 Gb to 93 Gb (1985) Venezuela 25 Gb to 56 Gb
(1988) UAE 31 Gb to 91 Gb (1988) Iraq
47 Gb to 100 Gb (1988) Iran
49 Gb to 93 Gb (1988) KSA 170 Gb to 258
Gb (1990)
Aramco nationalized
Advanced tech not available in late 1980s
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A long list of troubling observations
6. Oil markets lack transparency
No field-by-field production data from the Middle
East, likewise no data on reserves, decline
rates, operations.
Skimpy data on oil inventory
U.S. data is most complete data from some other
OECD countries are satisfactory
No data outside the OECD
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7. Global demand keeps rising
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8. Saudi Arabia problems
Since 1970, Saudi Arabia has been the worlds
swing producer of petroleum the only country
capable of greatly increasing production in a
short time (in response to supply interruptions
such as hurricanes in GOM, violence in Nigeria,
war in Iraq).
KSA insists it still can fulfill the role of
swing producer, but releases no verifiable
data....its attitude is trust us. Analysts are
(finally) starting to get very concerned (Matt
Simmons).
A. Unexplained jump in reserves in 1990 (170 to
258 Gb).
B. Ghawar reserves? 70 Gb (SA) 2540 Gb
(analysts).
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C. Almost all KSA production comes from 6
supergiant fields, and gt60 comes from Ghawar.
All six were discovered 4060 years ago. Five of
the six have produced at very high rates for most
of their history.
D. At least some of the wells in these
supergiant fields are producing very, very high
amounts of water with petroleum(70 to 90 30
is typical trouble level). In other fields,
these levels have led to very rapid production
declines.
E. Saudi Aramco says production from existing
fields declines 8 every year. Thus, KSA needs to
increase production by up about 1 million
barrels/day every year just to compensate.
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But almost all pumping is in existing fields. A
few new fields are scheduled to start producing
in the next three years, but Saudi Aramco is NOT
expending most of its resources on exploring and
developing new fields.
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Global oil production 0 to 4,000 AD
Petroleum is a nonrenewable resource. Whether
Peak Oil is here now or delayed until 2020 or
2030, it cannot be avoided.
Conservation of remaining petroleum
Viable alternative energy resources
Growth? Development?
Conservation of remaining petroleum Viable
alternative energy resources Growth?
Development?