Port Planning and Perceptions about Climate Change

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Port Planning and Perceptions about Climate
Change
2nd Workshop on Impacts of Global Climate Change
on Hydraulics, Hydrology and Transportation Wash
ington, D.C. March 29, 2006

• David H. Bierling
• Texas Transportation Institute
• Texas AM Engineering

Paula Lorente Rodríguez Department of Landscape
Architecture and Urban Planning Texas AM
University
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Our Goal

• Explore regional and size differences in U.S.
  port industry planning practices and perceptions
  about climate change.

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Our Analysis

• A Web-based survey distributed to 73 continental
  U.S. ports.
• Among the top 150 by USACE tonnage.
• East, West and Gulf Coasts, Great Lakes Inland
  Rivers.
• Nineteen questions about port planning and
  perceptions about climate change.
• Responses from 31 ports across regions and
  tonnage levels, 27 valid responses.
• Fisher exact tests used for analysis.

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Response Distribution

• For this sample
• Most responses for Gulf Coast ports,Least
  responses for East Coast ports.
• Overall responses centered around 5 million
  tons/yr.
• No significant regional differences by tonnage
  levels.

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What are the planning horizons of ports and are
there regional differences?

• For this sample
• 56 are 5 years or less, 78 are 10 years or
  less.
• Inland Rivers/Great Lakes more likely 5 years or
  less.
• East Coast more likely 10 years or more.
• No significant differences by tonnage levels.

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• For this sample
• The largest ports (gt25 million tons per year) are
  less likely to have plans for new infrastructure
  development.

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• For this sample
• 81 believe climate change is occurring,
  regardless of its cause.
• West Coast respondents are less likely to believe
  climate change is occurring.

• Respondents from ports that do not use generally
  accepted guidance in planning are less likely to
  believe climate change is occurring.

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• For this sample
• 52 anticipate an effect at their ports if
  climate changes occur in next 50 years.
• West Coast respondents are less likely to believe
  their ports would be affected.

• Inland Rivers and Great Lakes respondents are
  more likely to believe their ports would be
  affected.

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• For this sample
• Respondents at ports that do not use historical
  information in planning are less likely to
  anticipate climate change effects at their
  locations.
• Respondents at ports that do not use generally
  accepted guidance in planning are less likely to
  anticipate climate change effects at their
  locations.

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• For this sample
• 33 of ports have considered potential impacts of
  climate change.
• The majority of ports that believe their
  locations would be affected if climate changes
  occur in next 50 years have considered potential
  impacts.

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• For those in this sample who think climate change
  is occurring
• The majority think it is due mostly to natural
  cycles with some influence from human activities.
• Most (86) think that climate change due to human
  activities is reversible.

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Implications for Transportation Planners and
Policy Makers

• Planning horizons for ports are much shorter than
  climate change horizons.
• Most ports indicated plans for infrastructure
  development, across regions and sizes.
• Historical information and generally accepted
  design guidance are broadly used by ports.

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Implications for Transportation Planners and
Policy Makers

• Most respondents believe climate change
• is occurring.
• is at least partly due to human activities.
• is due more to natural cycles than human
  activities.
• due to human activities is reversible.

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Implications for Transportation Planners and
Policy Makers

• About half of port respondents believe their
  location would be affected by climate changes if
  they happen in the next 50 years.
• Of these, a small majority are taking at least
  initial steps to plan for climate change.
• Ports with respondents who believe climate change
  will not affect their locations are not planning
  for it.

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Implications for Transportation Planners and
Policy Makers

• Accurate and reliable historical information and
  general guidance will help promote sound planning
  and development practices by port
  decision-makers.
• Support for climate change research and policies
  may be regionally dependent.

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Limitations

• Limited sample size
• Inability to investigate correlations in
  response.
• Inability to make strong inferences for the U.S.
  port industry.
• Unequal responses across regions
• Fewer East Coast, more Gulf Coast ports.

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Further questions

• Do the results apply to a broader sample?
• Are perceptions changing over time?
• How are ports planning for climate change?
• Are there spatial and social considerations that
  should be investigated?
• How is climate change being accounted for by
  design and consulting firms?
• What are planning perspectives of other
  industries?