MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 16

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MET 112 Global Climate Change Lecture 16

• Climate Change Impacts Present and Future
• Dr. Eugene Cordero

• Outline
• Fingerprints of climate change
• Future impacts

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Projected levels of atmospheric CO2 during the
next 100 years would be higher than at anytime in
the last 440,000 yrs
Projected (2100)
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
Current (2001)
(BP 1950)
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Climate Change Is It Already Happening?

• Evidence of climate change is often difficult
  to pin down.
• Our understanding of interactions is sometime
  poor.

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Climate Change Is It Already Happening?

• Evidence of climate change is often difficult
  to pin down.
• Natural climate is always changing.
• Our understanding of climate system is sometime
  poor.
• Lack of good long term observations all over the
  world

Thus we look for fingerprints of climate
change as a result of a warmer climate.
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Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change

• FINGERPRINTS Direct manifestations of a
  widespread and long-term trend toward warmer
  global temperatures
• Ocean warming, sea-level rise and coastal
  flooding
• Arctic and Antarctic warming

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Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change

• FINGERPRINTS Direct manifestations of a
  widespread and long-term trend toward warmer
  global temperatures
• Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather
  
• Ocean warming, sea-level rise and coastal
  flooding
• Glaciers melting
• Arctic and Antarctic warming
• Increases in sea level

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Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change

• HARBINGERS Events that foreshadow the types of
  impacts likely to become more frequent and
  widespread with continued warming.
• Earlier spring arrival
• Coral reef bleaching
• Droughts and fires

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Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change

• HARBINGERS Events that foreshadow the types of
  impacts likely to become more frequent and
  widespread with continued warming.
• Spreading disease (i.e. mosquito carrying)
• Earlier spring arrival
• Plant and animal range shifts and population
  changes
• Coral reef bleaching
• Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding
• Droughts and fires

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Indicators of Climate Change
Fingerprints of climate change
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Indicators of Climate Change
Fingerprints of climate change
Stratosphere cooling
Troposphere warming
Ocean warming
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Temperature trends

• Troposphere (0 - 10km)
• Stratosphere (10 50 km)
• Early satellite data showed some cooling, but now
  that seemed to be instrument error.
• Why cooling? More energy trapped in troposphere.

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Temperature trends

• Troposphere (0 - 10km)
• Stratosphere (10 50 km)
• Surface temperatures are warming (Certain)
• Middle troposphere is also warming (Very likely)
• Early satellite data showed some cooling, but now
  that seemed to be instrument error.
• Upper atmosphere is cooling (Certain)
• Why cooling? More energy trapped in troposphere.

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Fingerprints of climate change
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Fingerprints of climate change
Increases in water vapor
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Water vapor feedback

• Recall how the water vapor feedback works
• Current models suggest that the water vapor
  feedback is responsible for about the same amount
  of warming as warming from increases in CO2.
• The importance of this feedback is still being
  investigated.

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Water vapor feedback

• Recall how the water vapor feedback works
• Increase in temp
• Increase evaporation
• Increase in water vapor in atmosphere
• Water vapor is a greenhouse gas
• Increase in greenhouse effect
• Further warming (positive feedback)
• Current models suggest that the water vapor
  feedback is responsible for about the same amount
  of warming as warming from increases in CO2.
• The importance of this feedback is still being
  investigated.

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Global mean surface temperatures have increased
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The Land and Oceans have warmed
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Precipitation patterns have changed
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The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and
droughts throughout the tropics and subtropics
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The frequency, persistence and magnitude of
El-Nino events have increased in the last 20 years
The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and
droughts throughout the tropics and subtropics
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Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase
Projected changes during the 21st century
Examples of impacts

• Higher minimum temperatures fewer cold days
  frost days and cold spells over nearly all land
  areas (very likely)
• increased summer drying over most mid-latitude
  continental interiors and associated risk of
  drought (likely)

• Increased mortality in old people in urban areas
• Heat stress on livestock
• Extended range of pests and diseases
• Reduced rangeland productivity, increased
  wildfires, decreased hydropower
• Damage to various ecological and socioeconomic
  systems

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Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase
Projected changes during the 21st century
Examples of impacts

• Higher maximum temperatures more hot days and
  heatwaves over nearly all land areas (very
  likely)
• Higher minimum temperatures fewer cold days
  frost days and cold spells over nearly all land
  areas (very likely)
• more intense precipitation events over many areas
  (very likely)
• increased summer drying over most mid-latitude
  continental interiors and associated risk of
  drought (likely)
• increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensity,
  mean and peak precipitation intensities (likely)

• Increased mortality in old people in urban areas
• Damage to crops
• Heat stress on livestock
• Extended range of pests and diseases
• Loss of some crop/fruit
• Land slides, mudslides, damage to property and
  increased insurance costs
• Reduced rangeland productivity, increased
  wildfires, decreased hydropower
• Damage to various ecological and socioeconomic
  systems

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Weather-related economic damages have increased
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Svalbard, Norway (79N)
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Arctic
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Fingerprints and Harbingers
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http//www.climatehotmap.org/
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More adverse than beneficial impacts on
biological and socioeconomic systems are projected
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Increased water availability in some water-scarce
regions, and decreased water availability in many
water scarce regions
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2020s 2050s 2080s
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Increased agricultural productivity in some
mid-latitude regions reduction in the tropics
and sub-tropics
2020s 2050s 2080s
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Branching coral
Brain coral
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Increase in coral bleaching events due to warmer
ocean temperatures
Branching coral
Brain coral
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Sea Level rise

• Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing
  tens of millions of people due to
• Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17 of its
  land area with a sea level rise of one meter

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Sea Level rise

• Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing
  tens of millions of people due to
• sea level rise and heavy rainfall events
• Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17 of its
  land area with a sea level rise of one meter
• very difficult to adapt due to lack of adaptive
  capacity

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Sea Levels have risen
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Effect on human health

• Reduced winter mortality in
• Increased incidence of heat stress mortality
• Increased incidence diseases in the tropics and
  sub-tropics
• such as malaria and

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Effect on human health

• Reduced winter mortality in
• mid- and high-latitudes
• Increased incidence of heat stress mortality
• Tropics and midlatitudes
• Increased incidence diseases in the tropics and
  sub-tropics
• such as malaria and
• water-borne diseases such as cholera,

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Developing countries are the most vulnerable to
climate change

• Impacts are worse
• large share of the economy is in climate
  sensitive sectors
• Lower capacity to adapt
• Climate change is likely to impact
  disproportionately upon the poorest countries and
  the poorest persons within countries,

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Developing countries are the most vulnerable to
climate change

• Impacts are worse
• already more flood and drought prone
• large share of the economy is in climate
  sensitive sectors
• Lower capacity to adapt
• because of a lack of financial and technological
  capacity
• Climate change is likely to impact
  disproportionately upon the poorest countries and
  the poorest persons within countries,
• Net market sector effects are expected to be
  negative in most developing countries

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Climate change and California

• Average Temperature
• Winter
• Summer
• Temperature extremes
• Coastal cities
• Human health
• Water resources
• Agriculture

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• Report Issued in 2004
• Sections include
• Climate projections
• Rising sea levels
• Extreme heat
• Health impacts
• Water resource
• Agriculture and vegetation

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