War in the 21st Century

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War in the 21st Century

• Approximately 90 of deaths due to warfare are
  now civilian
• Estimates are wildly approximate, but this seems
  plausible if deaths due to war-induced starvation
  and disease are included
• Peacekeeping has been reasonably successful in a
  number of cases
• Bosnia, Kosovo, Cambodia, Angola, East Timor,
  Liberia, Haiti, northern Iraq
• But there have been numerous cases were it hasnt
  been
• Bosnia before 1995, Rwanda, Congo, Sudan,
  Afghanistan, southern Iraq
• Militarized non-state actors have proliferated
• Transnational terrorist movementsbut these may
  not be stable
• Drug lords
• Territorial warlords

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Dominant Military Position of USA

• 450 - 500-billion expenditures per year
• Less than 5 of GDP but still roughly 10x more
  than any other state
• Most other major spenders are close US allies
• All-volunteer force
• 1.4-million active around 1.0-million reserve
• Much of the officer corps has combat experience
• Proportion of population in the military is 20x
  lower than in WWII
• Only state with global power projection
• 702 bases in 130 countries
• 12 carrier battle groups
• Bombers based in US can (and do) reach targets
  anywhere in the world
• Only state with global logistic capabilities
• Specialized defense contractors such as Raytheon
  and Halliburton are essentially extensions of the
  Dept of Defense
• No state is challenging the USA militarily

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World Military Expenditures

• World 950 billion 2004 est.
• United States(1) 466.0 billion FY04 actual
• China 65 billion 2004
• Russia 50 billion 2000 est.
• France 46.5 billion 2000
• Japan 44.7 billion FY05
• Germany 38.8 billion 2002
• United Kingdom 31.7 billion 2002
• South Korea 20.82 billion FY05
• Italy 20.2 billion 2002
• Saudi Arabia 18.3 billion FY00
• Brazil 13.408 billion FY99
• India 12.079 billion FY01
• Iran 9.7 billion FY00
• (1) does not include supplemental appropriations
  for Iraq these are now about 200-billion

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Source http//www.d-n-i.net/charts_data/defense_p
ercent_gdp_1940_2000.htm
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Major Defense Contractors

• Source www.defensenews.com
• Rank Name Country Defense Revenue of total
  (2005, million) revenue
• 1 Lockheed Martin U.S. 34,050 95.8
• 2 Boeing U.S. 30,464 58.1
• 3 Northrop Grumman U.S. 22,126 74.0
• 4 BAE Systems U.K. 20,344 80.0
• 5 Raytheon U.S. 18,771 92.7
• 6 General Dynamics U.S. 15,000 78.2
• 7 EADS Netherlands 10,505 24.2
• 8 Honeywell U.S. 10,240 40.0
• 9 Thales France 8,868 63.1
• 10 Halliburton (1) U.S. 8,000 39.1
• (1)DoD contract awards only

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Dimensions of "Globalization" Debate Critique of
the Right

• Religion/culture is replacing nationalism as the
  major divisive force in international affairs
• For Samuel Huntington and Robert Kaplan this is
  bad -- it is destabilizing and threatens US
  interests
• Non-US religious fundamentalists this is good
  --it is destabilizing and threatens US interests
• This approach is largely post-Cold War

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Dimensions of "Globalization" Debate Critique of
the Left

• Western empires have simply been replaced by the
  dominance of multinational corporations
  stratification has changed little or become worse
  
• International critique MNCs are the new colonial
  powers, and are worse because of cultural
  influence
• Domestic critique MNCs produce internal
  "underdevelopment" by lowering wages,
  environmental standards
• Approach is similar to earlier radical theories

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Sources of "Globalization"

• Economic inter-dependence has recovered to high
  levels.
• Markets for most basic commodities -- both raw
  materials and consumer goods -- are now global.
• Countries attempting to opt out of the global
  market have done badly economically.
• Information technologies allow rapid diffusion of
  a global culture -- McWorld. This is enhanced by
  the marketing strategies of multi-national
  corporations.

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Sources of "Globalization (Contd)

• Rise of a middle class in the developing world
  that is literate, has organizational skills, and
  can travel.
• Exponential growth in NGOs
• International collaboration within professional
  communities (business, science, law, education,
  medicine)
• Increase in the power of international economic
  institutions, notably the IMF, WTO, and MNCs
• Concern impact of economic development on global
  environment, notably global warming, endangered
  species and hazardous industrial technologies

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Characteristics of Global Culture

• Information
• Broadcast-CNN, satellite broadcasting
• Individual-long distance, fax, electronic mail
• International professional "communities"
• Cultural-music, cinema, television shows

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Characteristics of Global Culture (Contd)

• Economic
• Globally standard commodities
• Global labor market in standard goods
• Global finance
• Multinational corporations
• Ease of travel-immigration

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Factors Opposing Globalization

• Attempts to "globalize" culture have been only
  partly successful. For example 50 to 80 of MTV
  content is localized "international" brands such
  as McDonald's and Pizza Hut are successful by
  having local variations
• Most core government services -- infrastructure,
  welfare, security -- are still local or national
• Substantial differences exist in the character of
  corporations even within industrialized states
• Explicit opposition to cultural and economic
  globalization by various groups (some of which
  are global)

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Sources of Militant Non-State Actors

• Decline of communism as a universalist,
  state-centered ideology
• Islamic groups had a series of insurgencies
  against non-Moslems
• Palestine, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Bosnia/Kosovo,
  Chechnya
• Religious mobilization has been a nearly
  universal response to rapid economic change (e.g.
  Protestant Reformation)
• Improved communications lead to
  nationalist/ethnic mobilization
• Global market in small arms militarizes existing
  disputes
• Economic globalization provides efficient funding
• Contributions from outside the country
• Production of narcotics, smuggling in general

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Religion as a Political Force Advantages

• Oldest and most stable form of political
  organization
• Frequently provides significant social services
• Tends to be closely associated with "national"
  culture
• Provides traditional values in a period of rapid
  change

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Religion as a Political Force Disadvantages

• Goes against globalization of culture
• Traditional institutions may not provide modern
  services efficiently
• Tends to fragment easily on theological issues
• Difficult to translate many religious ideals into
  a practical political system

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Key Arguments in Huntington

• Democratization moves disputes from the realist
  "national interest" to the larger issue of
  culture.
• "Civilizations" Western, Confucian, Japanese,
  Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American
  and possibly African.
• Western civilization no longer dominates elite
  education.
• Decline of communism and other universalist
  ideologies leaves room for culture
• Civilization is basic to identity, and
  globalization forces people with very different
  world views to interact
• Economic regionalism is a stronger force than
  economic globalism

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Arguments Against the Huntington Thesis

• There is no evidence that conflict between
  civilizations has increased more than that within
  civilizations. Similarly, the historical level of
  conflict between Christians and Moslems is no
  greater than conflict within those groups.
• The "civilizations" defined by Huntington are
  vague and specific to the current period. A
  century ago France and Germany considered
  themselves very different. Why isn't Latin
  America considered Western how much does
  Indonesia have in common with Morocco?

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Arguments Against the Huntington Thesis

• The "international culture" of elites is still
  predominantly Western. Elites wear dresses or
  suits and speak English they don't wear robes
  and speak Chinese.
• Democratization -- in a predominantly Western
  rendition -- is still an expanding ideology.
• It isn't clear how a "civilization" -- as
  distinct from independent states -- exercises
  consistent military power.
• The "Confucian-Islamic" alliance seems to be
  based almost solely on missile sales China feels
  quite threatened by Islamic fundamentalism in its
  western provinces

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Religion in post-Cold War Conflicts Different
Religions

• Israel-Palestinian/Lebanon
• India-Pakistan (notably in Kashmir)
• Serbia-Bosnia/Kosovo
• Sri Lanka
• Sudan
• Armenia-Azerbijan
• Chechnya
• US-Iraq

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Religion in post-Cold War Conflicts Divisions
within single religion

• Northern IrelandProtestant vs Catholic
• Iran (Shia) -Iraq (Sunni)
• (in truce during post-Cold War period)
• Serbia (Orthodox)-Croatia (Catholic)
• Afghanistan (parts of it)

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Religion in post-Cold War ConflictsSame Religion

• Iraq-Kuwait
• Somalia
• Liberia
• Sierra Leone
• Rwanda
• Angola
• Zaire/Congo
• Algeria
• Colombia
• Peru
• Indonesia (except East Timor)