CASE STUDIESRELEVANCE OF THE DTM MODEL

1
CASE STUDIES/RELEVANCE OF THE DTM MODEL

• Need to be able to
• 1.Know about the DTM and how it applies to the
  UK/JAPAN
• (developed world) and INDIA (developing
  world).
• 2.Can it be reliably used to PREDICT past/future
  developments?
• 3.In what ways does it link with POPULATION
  STRUCTURE?

2
DTM and the UK

• Stage 1 until 1740 BR 30-40/000
• DR a little lower (cheap GIN
  drinking)
• Stage 21740-1880 DR falls to 20/000
  (food/sanitation/
• water/smallpox 1798/Public
  Health Acts 1848/1875
• BR stays high _at_ 30-35/000
• Stage 3 1880-1920 BR falls to 15/000
  (birth control
• information 1876,1914/1918
  WW1)
• DR falls (National Insurance
  1911/TB treatments
• via Local Councils
  1921/pension schemes)Rapidly
• urbanised rather than rural
  society-ease of medical
• treatments/hospitals/politic
  al-Suffragettes 1897.
• Stage 4 Low BR/DR_at_ 15-20/000.
• Some baby booms-post WW2 in
  1946.
• Contraceptive Pill in 1963

3
Does the DTM workin the UK ?

• NOTECompare your DTM in the UK graph
• with the DTM expected graph on p151.
• OVERALL TREND?GIVE EXAMPLES..QUOTE DATA
• EXCEPTIONS TO THE RULE?.WHEN?QUOTE DATAWHY?
• CONCLUSION?
• Help? For exceptions look _at_ 17201780.1820/60.19
  46Stage 5?

4
DTM IN MEDCS

• Rate/000
• B R
• D R
• 
  
• 
  Time

5
DTM IN LEDCS

• Rate per 000
• B R
• D R
• 
  Time

6
DTM IN INDIA

• POPULATION GROWTH (mil)
  CHANGES IN BR
  AND DR
• 1000
  
  
  BR
• 500
  
  
  DR
• 1901
  2000
  1901
  2000

7
DTM IN INDIA

• Stage 1pre-1920BR _at_ 50/000 DR _at_ 40/000
• rural life/highly prized male
  children
• Stage 21920-1985DR reduces _at_ 30/000 by 1942
• BR remains high-massive natural
  increase
• British colonisationmedicine/health
  /water/sanitation/
• industrialisation/quality of
  food/technology/oppression/
• independence in 1948.Over 50 pop
  below 15.
• Stage 3Post-1985DR levelling off,BR high but
  starting to decline
• so family size falling.987 millions
  population.N I _at_ 1.9
• CBR28/000 CDR 9/000 (low compared
  to some European)
• Still largely agricultural but
  increasing industrialisation
• GNP 370 (in UK20,870)
• Strong social/religious
  customswill BR fall further,quickly?

8
Does the DTM workin INDIA?

• NoteCompare your DTM graph of India with
• the expected DTM graph on p 151.
• OVERALL TREND?..QUOTE EGS.DATA
• EXCEPTIONS TO THE RULE?..QUOTE
  EGS.DATAWHEN?.WHY?
• CONCLUSIONS?
• Note1901 BR/DR,1921-1981 constant fall of BR.no
  sign DR levelling

9
Does the DTM work .in JAPAN?

• Rate per 000
• 40
• 
  BR
• 30
• 
  DR
• 20
• 1900
  1939
  2000

10
DTM IN JAPAN

• STAGE 1pre-industrial society up until
  1870.Subsistence
• economy.BR/DR _at_ 20/000 NI _at_
  1-1.6
• STAGE 2urbanisation as Industrial Revolution hit
  Japan.
• improvements in food
  suply/living conditions/
• access to medical facilities led
  to increase in
• BR to 35/000 in
  1920.Industrialisation/reduction in DR.
• STAGE 3 1945-1979- boom post WW2/Eugenic
  Protection Laws in
• 1960s/BR therefore drops
  dramatically/1966 is
• year of Fire and
  Horse-unlucky-fewer still babies/
• rapid post-war
  industrialisation/improving Q of L.
• STAGE 41979 onwards BR/DR low-advanced
  Technological lifestyles.

11
Does the DTM work in JAPAN?

• NoteCompare the DTM graph of Japan
• with the expected DTM graph p 151.
• OVERALL TREND.. QUOTE EGS..DATA
• EXCEPTIONS TO THE RULE?QUOTE EGS.DATA..WHAT..
  WHY
• CONCLUSIONS?
• Note1850 limited fluctuation BR/DR,1870 BR
  rise,fluctuating BR decline,
• DR continuing to decline 2000,timescale
  of overall change?

12
DTM and POPULATIONSTRUCTURE

• POPULATION STRUCTURENORMALLY REFERS TO THE
• 
  AGE/SEX PROFILE OF A
• 
  COUNTRY.CAN ALSO INCLUDE
• 
  RACE,LANGUAGE,RELIGION,
• 
  FAMILY SIZE.
• AGE/SEX RATIOS normally shown via a POPULATION
  PYRAMID

13
Population Pyramid

• AGE OF GROUPS
• 15-29
• 0- 14

14
The DTM and PopulationPyramids

• 1.Predict the changes that should happen
• to a countries Population Pyramid,as
• it progresses through the expected
• Demographic Transition Model.
• 2.Draw your predicted changes to the Population
• Pyramids of India,UK,Japan,for 2025 and 2050.
• Are they correct? Compare with UN predictions
• given out to you?

15
HOW RELIABLE THENIS THE DTM?

• ESSAY
• By reference to examples that you have studied at
  different scales of development,critically
  appraise the Demographic Transition Model.(25)

16
ESSAY TIPS

• 1.Introduction. Refer to DTM.What it is,how it is
  supposed to be helpful to prediction
  NI/population structure change in a country/when
  developed/stages/dates/etc
• 2.Refer to egs from MEDC.Stage by stage
  comparison of
• each countries progress.Is there comparison
  with DTM/in
• what way/is there disagreement/in what way?Why?
  Use FACTS
• 3.Do the same for LEDC.
• 4.Does it tend to work better for MEDC or LEDC?
  Use FACTS
• 5.Overall conclusion?Why? Any better models? Any
  use for
• predicting future trends?
• http//www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtra
  n.htm
• http//www.geocities.com/geogsoc2000/DTM.html
• Or write in Demographic Transition Model into
  Google search engine,and start your own search.

17
REVIEWDEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

• Simplistic model based upon the work of American
  Demographer Warren Thompson.(1929)
• Not all countries/regions within countries pass
  through stages _at_ same
• time/rate.
• No account taken of base population size(a small
  NI in Chinamassive population growth!)
• No account taken of the impact of Migration
• Based largely upon western/consumerist/market
  led societies.
• No account of external control/investment in a
  country (eg,Colonial power)
• Heavily reliant upon economic factors,eg,GNP,to
  cause stage by stage changes
• Under emphasis of culltural/political/social
  factors in stage by stage changes
• Fairly accurate overall indicator of NI
  change.Therefore highly regarded model