Results%20from%20the%20GRAPE%20Model

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Results from the GRAPE Model Atsushi
KUROSAWA Research and Development Division, The
Institute of Applied Energy (IAE)Shinbashi SY
bldg., 1-14-2 Nishishinbashi, Minato, Tokyo
105-0003 JAPANPhone (81) 3-3508-8894 / Fax
(81) 3-3501-1735 E-mail kurosawa_at_iae.or.jp Exp
ert Meeting on Assessment of Contributions to
Climate ChangeUK Met Office, Bracknell
UKSeptember 25-27, 2002 The views are solely
those of the individual author and do not
represent organizational view of the Institute of
Applied Energy
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Outline
1 GRAPE MODEL AND CLIMATE MODULE 2 PHASE 2
RESULTS GLOBAL SCALE ASSESSMENT AND
SENSITIVITY RUNS 3 SUMMARY
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1 GRAPE MODEL AND CLIMATE MODULE
ENERGY
Energy CostEnergy Trade Carbon Trade
CO2,CH4,N2O (Fossil Fuel)
ECONOMY
CLIMATE
Biomass Energy
Landuse Related Cost Food Trade
Carbon(Deforestation) CH4(Livestock,Rice)N2O(Fert
ilizer),etc
Atmospheric Temperature
IMPACT
LAND USE
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Concentration ? Rad. Forc.
Emissions
Sources
Temperature
Fos.Fuel Consumption
CO2 Em.
CO2 Conc.
Atmosphere
Forest
CH4 Em.
CH4 Conc.
Livestock
Rad. Forcing
Rice Field
N2O Conc.
N2O Em.
Fos. Fuel Production
Ocean
Other GHGs Em.
Fertilized Soil
Chemical Industry
CLIMATE CHANGE
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2 PHASE 2 RESULTS GLOBAL SCALE
ASSESSMENT AND SENSITIVITY RUNS
Formulation Emissions to Concentrations
CO2 - Four Box model CH4,N2O One
Box model Concentrations to Rad. Forcings
IPCC WGI TAR Rad. Forcings to Temp. Change
SLR Two Box model Evaluation Period 10
year step
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Sensitivity Run Past Emissions EDGAR Future
Emissions IPCC SRES A2 Marker
Start End Case 1 1890 2000 - default
Case 2 1990 2100 Case 3 1890 2100
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Regional Contibution Assessment Example
Region A Contribution gtgtgt Nature
Region A Emission
Definition of Contribution (change of param.
in regional calculation) / (change of param. in
global calculation)
Start End
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Cumulative Emissions
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Concentrations
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Radiative Forcing
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Temperature Change
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Sea Level Rise
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Strength of Non-Linearity -- Regional sum is
not equal to 100.
Parameter Period (Reg.Sum) (Global) CO2
Conc. Past (case 1) -15 Future (case
2) -31 PastFuture (case 3) -3Rad
Forcing Past -14 Future -37 PastFutu
re 25 Temp Past 5 Future -31 Pas
tFuture 25 SLR Past 39
Future 31 PastFuture 30
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3 SUMMARY Strong non-linearity is
observed. Treatment of natural emission?
Historical evaluation start date should be
1760 as default value since this period is
considered as the beginning of human
interventions.
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Thank you for your kind attention.