CSG/ERC 44th Annual Meeting Springfield, MA

1
CSG/ERC 44th Annual MeetingSpringfield, MA
Northeast Energy Outlook Panel

• Douglas MacIntyre, Senior Oil Market Analyst
• Petroleum Division
• U.S. Energy Information Administration
• August 10, 2004

2
WTI Crude Oil Price Potential for Volatility
Around Base Case
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, July 2004.
3
Crude Oil Price, OECD Days Supply, and World
Excess Production Capacity
4
OECD Commercial Oil Inventories
Source History Oil Market Report, IEA, July
2004
5
Will OPEC Keep Markets Adequately Supplied?
History
Projections
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, July 2004.
6
Annual World Oil Demand Growth1993-2005
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, July 2004.
7
Annual World Oil Demand Growthby Region,
1993-2005
Other includes Australia, New Zealand, the
Middle East, and Africa.
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, July 2004.
8
U.S. Crude Inventories Projected to Remain in
Normal Range
History
Million Barrels
Sources EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004
9
U.S. Net Crude Oil Imports
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, July 2004.
10
U.S. Crude Oil Refinery Inputs
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, July 2004.
11
Distillate Prices Generally Follow Crude Oil
East Coast Retail On-Highway Diesel Fuel
East Coast Residential Heating Oil
Spot West Texas Intermediate
12
East Coast Distillate Stocks
2002-03
2001-02
2003-04
Source Energy Information Administration
13
Distillate Winter Demand Expected to Continue to
Grow
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, July 2004.
14
Last Winters Weather Was Close to Average
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, July 2004.
15
Distillate Production Higher Leading Up to Peak
Demand Season
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, July 2004.
16
Distillate Imports Expected to be Key Component
In Winter Supply
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, July 2004.
17
Distillate Stocks Expected to be in Normal Range
Forecast
Actual
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, July 2004.
18
Northeast Heating Oil Inventories
Monthly
Weekly
Source Energy Information Administration.
19
Consumer Prices and Expenditures Heating Oil
(Northeast)
2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005
Actual Actual Actual Forecast (est.)
Consumption (gals.) 577 743 728 693
Average Price 1.10 1.34 1.36 1.56
Expenditures 635 993 991 1,080
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, July 2004.
20
Propane Prices Follow Crude Oil and Natural Gas
21
U.S. Propane Stocks
Forecast
Average Range
Actual
Lower Operational Inventory 18.5 Million Barrels
Source Energy Information Administration
22
Consumer Prices and Expenditures Propane
(Midwest)
2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005
Actual Actual Actual Forecast (est.)
Consumption (gals.) 803 941 888 919
Average Price 1.11 1.20 1.30 1.41
Expenditures 888 1,125 1,156 1,298
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, July 2004.
23
U.S. Natural Gas Spot Prices

(Base Case and 95 Confidence Interval)
The confidence intervals show /- 2 standard
errors based on the properties of the model. The
ranges do not include the effects of major supply
disruptions.
Sources History Natural Gas Week Projections
Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.
24
U.S. Working Gas in Storage(Difference from
Previous 5-Year Average)
EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004
25
Consumer Prices and Expenditures Natural Gas
(Midwest)
2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005
Actual Actual Actual Forecast (est.)
Consumption (mcf) 81.3 95.2 89.9 93.0
Average Price 7.41 8.40 9.69 10.56
Expenditures 602 800 871 983
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, July 2004.
26
Crude Oil andGasoline Price Outlook
Regular Gasoline
Wholesale Gasoline
Crude Oil (WTI)
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, July 2004.
27
U.S. Average Retail Regular Gasoline Prices
Source EIA Weekly Retail Gasoline Price Survey.
28
Gasoline Imports Mainly Serve PADD 1

• About 25 of PADD 1s supply comes from imports.
• Canada, Virgin Islands, Venezuela, Western Europe
  are important sources of import volumes.

PADD 1 Sources of Supply
877 MB/D (2003)
Source EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly