PUBLIC LECTURE

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PUBLIC LECTURE David Gordon Professor in
Social Justice Radical Statistics Annual
Conference Global Child Poverty 26th February,
2005
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Child Poverty in the UKThe UK Government is
committed to tackling the problem of child
poverty. In March 1999, the Prime Minister Tony
Blair set out a commitment to end child poverty
foreverAnd I will set out our historic aim
that ours is the first generation to end child
poverty forever, and it will take a generation.
It is a 20-year mission but I believe it can be
done.
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Man holds in his mortal hands the power to
abolish all forms of human poverty
John F. Kennedy Inaugural Address Friday, January
20, 1961
Every blow we inflict against poverty will be a
blow against its dark allies of oppression and
war.
Ronald Reagan Second Inaugural Address Monday,
January 21, 1985
In the quiet of American conscience, we know that
deep, persistent poverty is unworthy of our
nation's promise. And whatever our views of its
cause, we can agree that children at risk are not
at fault.
George W. Bush Inaugural Address January 20,
2001
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No More Hungry Children?
...within a decade no child will go to bed
hungry, ... no family will fear for its next
days bread and ... no human being's future and
well being will be stunted by malnutrition.
Henry Kissinger, First World Food Conference,
Rome 1974
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Do not weep do not wax indignant.
Understand. Baruch Spinoza (1632 - 1677)
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The Reality of Poverty
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Age at death by age group, 1990-1995
Source The State of the World Population 1998
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Only the good die young? what kills children
Cause of death for children under five
Bars show estimated confidence interval
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The world's biggest killer and the greatest
cause of ill health and suffering across the
globe is listed almost at the end of the
International Classification of Diseases. It is
given code Z59.5 -- extreme poverty. World Health
Organisation (1995) Seven out of 10 childhood
deaths in developing countries can be attributed
to just five main causes - or a combination of
them pneumonia, diarrhoea, measles, malaria and
malnutrition. Around the world, three out of
four children seen by health services are
suffering from at least one of these
conditions. World Health Organisation (1996
1998).
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Champagne glass of income distribution
The stem of the glass is getting thinner. In
1960 the income of the wealthiest fifth was 30
times greater than that of the poorest fifth now
it's more than 80 times greater.
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What is Poverty?
Jules Feiffers America
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Low Income in Britain 1961-2003
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Change in Real Median Weekly Incomes 1979 to 1996
by Decile Group at April 1998 Prices (After
Housing Costs)
Income Decile 1979 1996 Change
Bottom 10 81 71 -12
10-20 104 106 2
20-30 121 132 9
30-40 139 164 18
40-50 157 200 27
50-60 177 236 33
60-70 199 277 39
70-80 227 327 44
80-90 263 402 53
Top 10 347 582 68
Total Population (mean) 185 264 43
(Source Calculated from HBAI, 1998)
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Absolute Child Poverty
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Absolute PovertyAfter the World Summit on
Social Development in Copenhagen in 1995, 117
countries adopted a declaration and programme of
action which included commitments to eradicate
absolute and reduce overall
poverty.Absolute poverty was defined as "a
condition characterised by severe deprivation of
basic human needs, including food, safe drinking
water, sanitation facilities, health, shelter,
education and information. It depends not only
on income but also on access to services."
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Deprivation can be conceptualised as a continuum
which ranges from no deprivation through mild,
moderate and severe deprivation to extreme
deprivation.
Continuum of deprivation
In order to measure absolute poverty amongst
children, it is necessary to define the threshold
measures of severe deprivation of basic human
need for

1. food
2. safe drinking water
3. sanitation facilities
4. health

1. shelter
2. education
3. information
4. access to service

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Indicators of Absolute Child Poverty
Severe Food Deprivation children whose heights
and weights for their age were more than three
standard deviations below the median of the
international reference population, i.e. severe
anthropometric failure. Severe Water Deprivation
- children who only had access to surface water
(e.g. rivers, ponds) for drinking or who lived in
households where the nearest source of water was
more than 15 minutes away (indicators of severe
deprivation of water quality or quantity).
Severe Deprivation of Sanitation Facilities
children who had no access to a toilet of any
kind in the vicinity of their dwelling, including
communal toilets or latrines. Severe Health
Deprivation children who had not been immunised
against any diseases or young children who had a
recent illness involving diarrhoea and had not
received any medical advice or treatment. Severe
Shelter Deprivation children living in
dwellings with more than five people per room
(severe overcrowding) or with no flooring
material (e.g. a mud floor). Severe Education
Deprivation children aged between 7 and 18 who
had never been to school and were not currently
attending school (no professional education of
any kind). Severe Information Deprivation
children aged between 3 and 18 with no possession
of or access to radio, television, telephone or
newspapers at home.
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Sample size details, by region
Region Number of surveys Number of children in sample Number of children under 18 in 2000(in 000s) Sample fraction (1 child in every)
Latin America Caribbean 12 235,176 193,374 822
Middle East North Africa 5 247,625 151,854 613
South Asia 4 318,361 559,615 1,758
East Asia Pacific 8 939,662 590,621 629
West Central Asia 8 68,585 85,559 1,247
Sub-Saharan Africa 36 666,833 317,860 477
Eastern Europe (Non-EU) 4 26,332 27,657 1,050
Developing World 77 2,502,574 1,926,540 770
Wealthy countries 0 0 223,123 -
World total 77 2,502,574 2,149,572 859
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Child Poverty in the World
Over one billion children half the children in
the world- suffer from severe deprivation of
basic human need and 30 (650 million) suffer
from absolute poverty (two or more severe
deprivations).
severe deprivation of basic human need are
those circumstances that are highly likely to
have serious adverse consequences for the health,
well-being and development of children. Severe
deprivations are causally related to poor
developmental outcomes both long and short term.
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• Severe Deprivation of Basic Human Need
• Almost a third of the worlds children have to
  live in dwellings with more than five people per
  room or which have a mud floor.
• Over half a billion children (27) have no toilet
  facilities whatsoever.
• Almost 400 million children (19) are using
  unsafe (open) water sources or have more than a
  15-minute walk to water.
• About one in five children aged between 3 and 18
  lack access to radio, television, telephone,
  computers or newspapers at home.
• Fifteen percent of children under five years in
  the world are severely malnourished, almost half
  of whom are in South Asia.
• 275 million children (13) have not been
  immunised against any diseases or have had a
  recent illness causing diarrhoea and have not
  received any medical advice or treatment.
• 145 million children aged between 7 and 18 (11)
  are severely educationally deprived - they have
  never been to school.

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Percent of the worlds children severely deprived
of basic human needs
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Global Rural and Urban Absolute Child Poverty
Rates
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Shelter Sanitation Physical Capital
Items Water Information Food Health
Human Capital Items Education
The severe deprivations of basic human need which
affect the greatest number of children are
physical capital problems - deprivation of
shelter, water and sanitation. Whilst fewer
children suffer from deprivations of human
capital health, education and nutrition, most
of the worlds anti-poverty policies are aimed at
improving that human capital, particularly in
urban areas
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Child Poverty in Rich Countries
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UNICEF Child Poverty League of Rich
Countries Percent of children living below 50 of
median national income
Source UNICEF (2005)
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Summary of Outcomes of Child Poverty

• Outcome
• Mortality
• Morbidity
• Accidents
• Mental Illness
• Child Abuse
• Teenage Pregnancy
• Environment/Housing Conditions
• Homelessness
• Low Education attainment
• School exclusions
• Crime
• Smoking
• Alcohol
• Drugs
• Suicide
• Child Labour

Are Outcomes Associated with Poverty? Yes,
strong association with social class Yes, strong
association for most diseases Yes, for fatal
accidents (but not accident morbidity) Yes Yes,
except sexual abuse Yes Yes Yes Yes Dont
Know No Mainly after childhood No No Yes No
Source Bradshaw (2001)
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The Causes of Poverty
Weather Map, New Internationalist
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Structural Causes of Poverty

• Most poverty has a structural cause, rather than
  being the result of an individuals bad
  behaviour or choices.
• Since the pioneering studies of poverty in 19th
  Century (such as Charles Booths in London), six
  groups have been identified as being especially
  vulnerable to poverty -
• the elderly
• the unemployed
• sick and disabled people
• the low waged
• large families, and
• lone parents
• In many developing countries two additional
  groups are also at risk of poverty
• Landless and small farmers, and
• fishermen and women

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Low Wages and Child Poverty
Source UNICEF (2000)
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Social Expenditure on Families and Child Poverty
Source UNICEF (2005)
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Income Support and poverty levels
2001/02(defined as half mean income after
housing costs)
Income Support (IS) Poverty Level (PL) IS as of PL
Couple with one Child aged 6 129.95 192.06 67.7
Couple with two Children aged 4 8 162.15 223.81 72.4
Couple with three Children aged 3, 8, 11 194.35 265.08 73.3
Lone parent with One child aged 6 101.15 120.63 83.6
Source Piachaud Sutherland (2001)
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The Solutions to Poverty
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The cost of achieving universal access to basic
social services
The Price of Life?
Need Annual cost (US billions)
Basic education for all 6
Basic health and nutrition 13
Reproductive health and family planning 12
Low cost-water supply and sanitation 9

Total for basic social services 40
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The Cost of Ending Child Poverty the amount
needed to raise the incomes of all poor families
with children above the poverty threshold
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The World Banks Solution to Poverty The
Washington Consensus

• The World Bank has pursued the same set of
  anti-poverty policies for almost 40 years These
  have three elements
• Broad-based economic growth
• Development of human capital, primarily through
  education
• Minimum social safety nets for the poor
• The World Bank has pursued these policies by
  rigidly adhering to neo-liberal economic
  orthodoxy. (Joseph Stiglitz, 1998 2000)
• Privatisation which tends to raise prices for
  the poor
• Capital market liberalisation which can allow
  speculators to destabilise countries economies,
  as has happened in Asia and South America
• Market-based pricing which raises the costs of
  basic foods and fuel for the poor and has caused
  rioting, particularly in South America, eg
  Bolivia, Ecuador and, recently, Argentina
  (economists should not be provoking riots around
  the world)
• Free trade which is governed by World Trade
  Organisation (WTO) rules that often severely
  disadvantage poorer countries

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Growth is Good for the Poor?
Source Dollar and Kraay, Journal of Economic
Growth, 2002
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Dollar and Kraays Conclusions Did they Discover
a New Law of Nature?
Average incomes of the poorest fifth of a
country on average rise or fall at the same rate
as average incomes . in a large sample of
countries spanning the past four decades. This
relationship holds across regions and income
levels, and in normal times as well as during
crises . . This supports the view that a basic
policy package of private property rights fiscal
discipline, macroeconomic stability, and openness
to trade on average increases the income of the
poor to the same extent that it increases the
income of the other households in society. . .
On the other hand, we find little evidence that
formal democratic institutions or a large degree
of government spending on social services
systematically affect incomes of the poor
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Random Average Income Vs Random Income Share of
the Poor
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Are Random Numbers Good for the Poor?
R2 0.79
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Faith in the Market
At present almost all elite Americans, with
corporate chiefs and fashionable economists in
the lead, are utterly convinced that they have
discovered the winning formula for economic
success the only formula good for every
country, rich or poor, good for all individuals
willing and able to heed the message, and, of
course, good for elite Americans PrivatisationDe
regulationGlobalisationTurbo-CaptialismProsperi
ty Edward Luttwak (1998), Turbo Capitalism The
world is plagued not so much by poverty but by a
rampant suspicion of wealtheverywhere these
ideas prevailpoverty persists and
spreads George Gilder (1981) Wealth and
Poverty It is the entrepreneurs who know the
rules of the world and the laws of God George
Gilder (1984) The Spirit of Enterprise Towards
the end of the century, many developing
countriesChina and India among themfinally
threw off this victim's mantle and began to
embrace wicked capitalism, both in the way they
organised their domestic economies and in their
approach to international trade. All of a sudden,
they are a lot less poor, and it hasn't cost the
West a cent. Economist editorial, 11/3/2004
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"Faith is believing what you know isn't so."
Your faith is what you believe, not what you
know."   --  Mark Twain
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Poverty in the UK The Solution?
This would mean restoring to the centre of the
tax system two basic principals the first, that
those who cannot afford to pay tax should not
have to pay it and the second, that taxation
should rise progressively with income. Programmes
that merely redistribute poverty from families to
single persons, from the old to the young, from
the sick to the healthy, are not a solution. What
is needed, is a programme of reform that ends the
current situation where the top 10 own 80 of
our wealth and 30 of income, even after tax. As
Tawney remarked, What some people call the
problem of poverty, others call the problem of
riches. (Gordon Brown and Robin Cook, 1983)